Is Jaylen Brown an All-Star?

The Celtics' young depth was going to be tested when Gordon Hayward went down with a broken hand early last month. The 29-year-old was arguably playing the best basketball out of anyone on the roster before his freak collision with LaMarcus Aldridge on November 9th and his absence would increase the pressure on a largely inexperienced roster, putting more weight on its top-heavy starting five.

Nearly one month later, the end is near for Hayward’s absence. The Celtics have managed to keep the ship afloat without him, improving to 8-4 in his absence with a 113-92 victory over a weary Heat squad at the TD Garden on Wednesday night to improve to 15-5 on the year. The victory put the C’s back into a tie for the second seed in a very competitive top of the East despite playing more than half of their games (12 of 20) on the road to begin the year.

How exactly have the Celtics managed to hold down the fort since Hayward has been sidelined? A number of pieces have been essential over the past month, perhaps none more than Jaylen Brown on the wing.

During Hayward’s absence, Brown has not only taken advantage of the added opportunity, but he’s also flourished with it. After scoring a season-high 31 points on Wednesday night, the 23-year-old leads the team in scoring (21.1 ppg) over the 12 games Hayward has missed despite ranking third on the team in shot attempts (16.4). He’s been superb shooting the ball (49% FG, 41% 3-pt) during that run while also topping the team in rebounds per game (7.2) and finishing second in free throw attempts per game (4.2).

“When Jaylen gets going, I think he’s the X-factor for us,” Kemba Walker said after Wednesday’s win. “When he has it going he definitely gives us a lot more options – and he’s been playing well all year. I’m excited for him. He’s been putting in a lot of work to improve on his game each and every day and it’s just showing on the court.”

As teams like Miami put the majority of their focus on slowing down Walker (28 points) or Tatum (19 points) by blitzing them in the pick-and-roll, Brown has repeatedly made opponents pay for putting their attention elsewhere.

“They’re blitzing Kemba and blitzing JT,” Brown said. “So (I'm) just being aggressive out of that because they’ve gotta form three on the backside, and I’m just trying to be aggressive.”

“He’s obviously been really good,” Brad Stevens added. “He ended the road trip well with his play in the second half of that Denver game. I thought that's kind of carried over. He's just been solid on both ends.”

The end result has Brown averaging 19.9 points per game a quarter of the way through the NBA season. Just 34 players in the league have crossed that 19 ppg threshold and only six of them are shooting 49 percent or better from the field with that high scoring volume. Those names? Devin Booker, LeBron James, Karl-Anthony Towns, Giannis Anteokounmpo, DeMar DeRozan and Brown.

All of those guys are max contract players besides Brown and every single one will be an All-Star this year besides potentially DeRozan (and Brown). Unlike the Spurs veteran (who doesn’t shoot 3s and is a liability on D), Brown is flirting with his career-high by knocking down 38.2 percent of his treys while attempting over five per game.

Throw in some improved free-throw shooting (71 percent), versatile defense and playing for one of the best teams in the Eastern Conference, and the argument can be made that Brown has just as strong a case as Jayson Tatum to be a first-time All-Star in the Eastern Conference at the quarter pole of the season.

There are certainly a number of set locks already for East All-Stars, particularly among the big names. A quick look at the shoe-ins based on production and/or reputation:

Guards: Bradley Beal, Trae Young (28 ppg), Kemba Walker, Kyrie Irving (if healthy), Malcolm Brogdon, Jimmy Butler

Forwards/Bigs: Giannis Antetokounmpo, Joel Embiid, Pascal Siakam, Andre Drummond

After that? It turns into a bit of a free-for-all for the final few spots on the roster and Brown has just about as good of a case as anybody after the first two months of the year. Usual candidates like Blake Griffin, Irving, Nikola Vucevic, Kyle Lowry and Hayward have been limited by injuries in the early going and that could hurt their case.

There have also been plenty of other guards and wings with standout individual years so far but the only guys that have been more productive than Brown in the East from a scoring standpoint have done it for bad teams (Zach LaVine) or stand to lose a major opportunity when others get healthy (Spencer Dinwiddie). Would you rather take 18 point scorers Evan Fournier, Tobias Harris, Domantas Sabonis or Fred VanVleet over Brown right now? The efficiency numbers say you shouldn’t at this point of the year.

So even when you account for the likelihood that Tatum gets the nod despite his subpar shooting numbers to start the year (40/34/82), there still looks to be enough room for Brown to stake a claim to a spot as well. If he keeps up this level of production, he may even have a stronger case than Tatum when the votes are counted next month.

And while the case can be made Brown’s opportunities will diminish once Hayward returns to the lineup (weakening his All-Star odds), Brown has averaged 18.8 ppg in five games playing alongside a healthy Hayward this year. He’s continually making defenses pay for the added attention elsewhere and those chances aren’t going away when Hayward gets back. In fact, they may only get better with a passer like Hayward back in the mix with defenses spread thin against the C's weapons.

Whether or not Brown makes the All-Star team here is almost beside the point. The fact that the C’s are getting All-Star level production from the fourth-year wing has pushed the upside of this group to a different category this year. Nearly everything had to go right from an internal development standpoint for this roster to be considered an East contender and both Brown and Tatum have answered the call on that front 20 games into the year. After watching their progressions stall last year, the upside for both look better than ever and perhaps even ahead of schedule for Brown.