There aren’t too many surprises in Brandon Carlo’s game.
A 6-foot-5 blueliner, Carlo is at his best when deployed as one of the anchors of Boston’s penalty-kill unit, while also snuffing out opposing scoring chances during 5v5 play.
Last season, in particular, was a major step forward for the 23-year-old defenseman when it came to rounding out the bread and butter of his game.
Among the 87 NHL defensemen that logged at least 1,200 5v5 minutes in 2018-19, Carlo ranked first overall in goals against per 60 minutes of play with a rate of 1.48. Other defensive stalwarts such as Colton Parayko, John Klingberg and Ryan Ellis ranked third, fourth and 23rd in the same category.
Even at his age, Carlo is already a key cog in Boston’s D corps. But when it comes to his contributions down the other end of the ice, any points that the Colorado Springs native can chip in is generally just viewed as a luxury when sizing up his overall game.
“The whole goal-scoring thing isn’t my forte,” Carlo said last May during the Stanley Cup Playoffs. “Maybe I’ll slide in an empty netter.”
And yet, while Boston has often relied on the likes of Torey Krug, Matt Grzelcyk and Charlie McAvoy to generate offense from the blue line, Carlo has started to see his name pop up on the box score more and more over the last couple of months.
After a promising rookie campaign in which Carlo tallied six goals and 16 total points over a full 82-game slate, the defenseman’s contributions in the O-zone have often been few and far between.
He didn’t light the lamp at all during the 2017-18 campaign, finishing with just six assists over 76 games, before adding two goals and 10 total points last season in 72 games. Crunch the numbers, and that’s a whopping two goals and 16 points over 148 games in the past two years.
Of course, that’s not an indictment on Carlo’s overall game, considering he focuses most of his efforts in Boston’s own zone. But this year has been a bit of a different story when it comes to offensive production.
Carlo might have finished with double-digit point totals last season, but it’s taken the defenseman just 27 games to equal that scoring output in 2019-20, with a secondary assist against Montreal on Sunday securing his 10th point of the new year.
Carlo may not be an offensive dynamo, but making sound plays with the puck on his stick — namely effective first passes out of Boston’s zone — have allowed the points to pile up in the early going for the defensive stalwart. At this rate, Carlo is on pace to finish the year with 29 points, just three points off of his combined scoring output from his previous three seasons.
“I feel like I’m taking steps forward,” Carlo said. “Talking to Butchie, talking to (assistant coach Kevin Dean), it’s just about simplifying my game in the offensive zone. I feel more comfortable as well, playing with confidence, just hanging on to the puck just a little bit longer. So it’s just been good for me — just to gain confidence in that area. It allows you to just see the ice a little bit more.”
Carlo certainly isn’t reinventing the wheel when it comes to his approach on offense, with his average shot distance still measuring out to around 54 feet.
But the defenseman hasn’t missed all that often during the sequences where he does let a puck fly from the blue line — with his shots on-target percentage of 86.79 ranking first among Boston’s starting defensemen.
For reference, here are the shots on-target percentages for Boston’s other five regulars on the blue line.
Charlie McAvoy - 60.4%
Connor Clifton - 69.2%
Matt Grzelcyk - 70.4%
Zdeno Chara - 75.4%
Torey Krug - 76.5%
Carlo may not be launching Grade-A chances from his usual areas of the ice, but his ability to get pucks on net and create tip-able shots has given Boston’s secondary offense a lift, and allowed Carlo to pad his scoring totals.
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As Carlo has continued to get more and more comfortable with the puck in the O-zone, he's starting to show a willingness to fire in more pucks as a result. After averaging 5.02 shots per 60 minutes of 5v5 play last season, Carlo has bumped that total up to 5.51 this year — a rate higher than Krug (5.51), David Krejci (3.76) and McAvoy (2.56).
“A little more confidence, I think, at the O-zone blue line," Bruce Cassidy said of what has stood out in Carlo's offensive game. "Working to get his shot through. I think he’s been better with that. I know Kevin has been working hard with him. I had Brandon as a young guy. I always thought he was better moving down the wall than maybe laterally into the middle, for whatever reason. Some guys, it’s just a different strength. Torey and Grizz are probably a little bit better probably walking the line. A little more deceptive.
"So everyone has their strengths, so we’re trying to encourage him to play to those. It’s falling into place a little more for him in that regard. As for the points, sometimes you make good first passes and the line scores, and sometimes they don’t. So there’s a little bit of luck involved for a guy that’s probably making that good first pass, not necessarily putting guys on a breakaway, like a Krug would. I look at both those things. He’s been healthy, so he’s in the lineup every night, that allows him to build his confidence and get more touches. Probably all those things.”
Yes, we likely won't see the day where Carlo is hovering around 30-40 points on an annual basis. But again, the Bruins aren't asking him to carry out such responsibilities. Rather, the promising skater is only being tasked with making the smart, low-risk plays that can keep the gears turning for the rest of Boston's offense.
The difference this time around? He's finally starting to get rewarded for it.
Stats and graphs via Natural Stat Trick & Sean Tierney.
