As the offseason begins in earnest this week -- with the GM Meetings getting under way Monday, presenting the first opportunity for executives to converse face-to-face -- speculation continues to build over whether the Red Sox will trade Mookie Betts, now just a year away from free agency.
The Red Sox have decided to cut payroll in order to re-reset their CBT (competitive balance tax) rate. With $150 million committed to players on existing multi-year deals, another $50 million or so ticketed for arbitration-eligibles and still more targeted for the players rounding out the roster, there are cuts to be made.
Already, there has been speculation that the return of J.D. Martinez could force the Sox into moving Betts, who will make somewhere around $28 million in his final year of arbitration-eligibility. But what if the Sox began their cost-cutting by moving another outfielder instead?
Granted, the savings accrued by dealing Jackie Bradley Jr. would be smaller, with Bradley estimated to earn $11 million in his final year of arbitration. The expectation is that the Sox will need to slice about $30 million to get under the $208 million threshold. But it would represent a start. And unlike one of their pricey starting pitchers (David Price or Nathan Eovaldi), the Red Sox wouldn't have to pay down any of Bradley's salary.
What's Bradley's trade value?
"I think
it's better than what people might think,'' said one N.L. evaluator. "The defense, everyone gets. I know the hitting concepts haven't been perfect, but if you understand what you're getting and create structure and embrace it, there's a lot to like. He's got cripple power (the ability to hit mistakes out of the ballpark) at the bottom of the order. You can control his playing time as much as you want, but you can also let him play as much as you want, too.
"He definitely has some worth.''
Said one scout: "It's all about pitch recognition with him and getting balls he can handle. He has more raw power than I thought. He's an undervalued guy who can really pop in the right situation.''
Part of the problem -- and this exists on even a larger scale with Betts -- is the lack of control. Bradley, too, is only a year away from free agency and given how much organizations value their prospects, there's some doubt about what a trade for Bradley could provide in return.
"He's a little expensive for some,'' said one scout. "But for the right contender, he could be a nice fit.''
The New York Mets, who remained in the National League wild-card hunt until last season's final weeks, could use an upgrade in center. It's worth noting that several evaluators said Bradley could have greater appeal to an N.L. team, where he could provide bottom-of-the-order power and the frequent late-inning double-switches could help cover up his struggles against left-handed pitching (career .669 OPS).
So, too, could the Chicago White Sox, and while it's a stretch to consider the White Sox a contender (they won 72 games last season), they play in a division that is more wide open than most. And outfield defense has been an obvious weakness, particularly as they develop some young starting pitching. Finally, the White Sox have known to covet Bradley for some time, leading to some Bradley-for-Jose Abreu rumors two years ago.
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