NBA Notebook: Should the Celtics make a run at Domantas Sabonis?

The NBA rumor mill for the 2019-20 season got off to an early start this weekend, as Sam Amick of the Athletic was first to report the Pacers were fielding offers for 23-year-old Domantas Sabonis. The fourth-year center is in the midst of rookie extension talks with the Pacers and the two sides are unsurprisingly far apart ahead of Monday’s deadline. Indiana has a number of long-term salary commitments already on its roster, including one to starting center Myles Turner for the next three seasons, which is creating a fork in the road for the Pacers front office potentially with their young big man.

It remains unclear whether Sabonis and Turner are a good fit together on the floor due to their size and shooting limitations, so investing big money in both guys — who are each best served at playing as a true center  — is an understandable conundrum. Rather than overcommitting to both, general manager Kevin Pritchard is dipping his toe in the trade waters now to find whether he can maximize value for the big man in a swap.

Should the Celtics be interested in Sabonis?

Yes, especially when consider their current depth chart at the position. Sabonis was one of the best young bigs in the East last year, averaging 14.1 points, 9.3 rebounds and 2.9 assists. He lacks a reliable 3-point shot but is a terrific weapon in the pick-and-roll and midrange, and is also a solid positional defender. He doesn’t have the bulk to hang with big centers in the post, but his length has allowed him to be a terrific rebounder on both ends. He’s also a strong passer for his size, no surprise given his father was one of the best passing bigs in NBA history.

What would Sabonis cost the Celtics in terms of assets?

The former No. 11 pick overall pick is making just $3.5 million in the final year of his rookie deal. The Celtics have a lot of young talent earning that kind of salary (Rob Williams, Grant Williams, Carsen Edwards) but none of these pieces will be enough to move a proven piece like Sabonis. The C’s could make things work if they sweeten the deal with a first-round pick but that’s a tall ask on top of a young player (the Memphis pick wouldn’t ever be on the table from Boston's perspective). Instead, the logical fit here from a national analyst view is Brown. He makes $6.5 million this year so the numbers wouldn’t work for a straight-up swap, but the Pacers do have other young players they could throw in to make the salary matching work. A couple of possibilities:

Doug McDermott: $7.3 million, under contract for next two seasons. This is an overpriced contract given McDermott’s defensive issues and inconsistent shooting in high-leverage situations.

T.J. Leaf: $2.8 million, under contract for next two seasons: A power forward who has looked like a fringe NBA player during his first two seasons. Probably the most realistic throw-in for a swap but a net negative for Boston in a deal since he likely is not better than Grant Williams or Semi Ojeleye.

Aaron Holiday: $2.2 million, under contract for next three years: He didn’t get a ton of experience last year until Victor Oladipo was sidelined, but he’s got a lot of potential as a backcourt piece. The C’s are already loaded with young guards but he’s a piece the Pacers would be rightfully hesitant to give up without getting more in return.

All things considered, a Leaf and Sabonis for Brown deal from a salary standpoint is one that would be most logical in getting the numbers to work. That leads up to a bigger question though:

Does a Brown for Sabonis trade make sense for Boston?

I’ll preface this by saying I believe any Brown swap at this stage of the season feels very unlikely. The Celtics probably aren’t going to pull the rug out from under Brad Stevens days before the season begins with this kind of a drastic shift in personnel. With that said, if no one in the new center rotation steps up in the first 20-30 games of the year and the C’s do not want to pay full freight for Brown in restricted free agency, this is a match that will continue to come up on the rumor mill. So what factors will be considered in a hypothetical swap?

Pros of acquiring Sabonis

Better fit for C’s needs: Sabonis is no Al Horford, but his finishing ability in the paint makes him one of the premier bigs in the East. He provides a lot of what Enes Kanter can do but without the drawbacks on the defensive end. He is automatic around the paint, an incredible offensive rebounder, and shows off good positioning on the defensive end, particularly in the pick-and-roll. He doesn’t need plays called for him to get points and given the complexion of the rest of the starting five, that’s the kind of center that should be a great fit for Stevens.

Less expensive than Brown in his next contract: The Celtics have max money committed to Kemba Walker for the next four seasons and they soon will do the same with Jayson Tatum when his rookie deal runs out next season. Given the team’s big hole in the middle and the presence of Gordon Hayward (signed through 2020-21), it’s fair to assume that Walker/Tatum/Hayward/Brown won’t be on this roster together in another two seasons since that won’t give Boston the flexibility to spend enough on other parts of the roster. A decision does not have to be made about Brown’s future now, but there’s no question that Sabonis is probably going to command less money right now in an extension than Brown based on his skillset and position. Turner signed at four years/$72 million last fall for his extension with similar production so that’s probably a reasonable middle ground here. Even if the C’s were to wait things out with him in restricted free agency, it’s hard to see his market growing with the limited number of teams with serious cap room next summer.

Cons of acquiring Sabonis

How much do the C’s want to pay a big without consistent 3-point range? There is no denying that Sabonis is an upgrade on anything the C’s have right now, but big contracts to big men have not worked out lately when there is no perimeter shot involved. Hassan Whiteside and Andre Drummond are both playing on albatross deals right now, while Steven Adams has limited value as well. The same goes for Tristan Thompson. Investing big money ($15 million-plus per year) has not gone well for teams with limited offensive centers in the past decade and that’s what the C’s would be signing up for here with Sabonis.

Hasn’t risen to occasion in the postseason: This may be overreacting to the C’s sweep of the Pacers last year but his production in that series was not promising on a stage that matters most. Boston’s front line limited him to just 41 percent shooting from the field, a disappointing number when you consider the vast majority of his shot attempts came inside the paint. A lack of appealing shot creators in Indiana’s offense due to the injury to Oladipo can explain some of those woes, but you generally want to see players’ raise their game in the postseason, not experience a huge dropoff. Brown has a far better track record than Sabonis on this front.

What’s the verdict?

While different scouts around the league will have different opinions about who out of Brown and Sabonis has more value at the moment, this question comes down to greater upside to me. The Celtics need a lot of things to go right to get back towards a contending level, and Brown raising his game to an All-Star level is certainly a greater possibility than Sabonis reaching that level in my mind. The swingman has greater upside right now, and that’s something the C’s should be willing to wait out, at least through the first couple months of this season with last year’s obstacles out of the way. This is a deal that deserves consideration, but players like Brown are harder to find than bigs like Sabonis. The C’s are better off finding out what they have in Brown this season (along with the rest of their bigs) than bring aboard a player that has limitations on the offensive end. The Celtics probably are going to need to bolster their frontline at some point this year but they should be able to find cheaper ways to do it over the long term than a trade involving Sabonis.