The Ravens and, possibly, the Chargers, Colts, Texans and Browns might have something to say about this before the end of the season, it almost feels like a fait accompli that the Chiefs and Patriots are on a collision course for a rematch in the AFC Championship Game.
As a result, we'll be keeping close eyes on them during the course of the season in this space, and let's start with an early check-in to see how the two teams stack up through the advanced analytics over at FootballOutsiders.com:
As you can see, the Patriots are elite across the board except for the running game. Everything else is top 4. The Chiefs struggle on the ground and with everything on defense. And the Patriots have, by far, the easier schedule.
THINGS GOING WELL FOR KC
Mahomes The Magnificent: QB Patrick Mahomes has picked up right where he left off in his 2018 MVP season, throwing for 821 yards with seven touchdowns and no interceptions in the Chiefs’ first two games. No quarterback in the NFL is better at throwing deep or improvising brilliant passes from unusual angles. Mahomes leads the NFL with seven completions of at least 70 yards. That's ridiculous. According to ProFootballFocus.com, Mahomes has completed 10 deep passes (targeted 20 or more yards downfield) on 15 attempts for 389 yards (1st), five touchdowns (1st) and a 149.3 passer rating (3rd).
They don't even have Tyreek Hill, RB Damien Robinson or a healthy RB LeSean McCoy: Hill has missed both games, Robinson is out this week, and McCoy has been battling an ankle injury and is questionable. Without Hill, the Chiefs are still flying high with Sammy Watkins (16.5 yards per catch, 3 TDs), Demarcus Robinson (24.6 yards per catch, 2 TDs) and rookie Mecole Hardman (15.3, TD). Tight end Travis Kelce (10 catches for 195 yards and a touchdown) remains one of the elite at his position. His 19.5-yards-per-reception average is the NFL’s best among tight ends with at least 10 catches. RT Mitchell Schwartz has been outstanding.
Chris Jones, Kendall Fuller and Damien Wilson standing out on defense: Jones, the interior lineman, continues to a one-man wrecking crew up front as he has totaled 11 quarterback pressures in two games. Unfortunately, no one else has more than four. Fuller has had some issues in the red zone, but he's been their best cover corner. Wilson has been a revelation since coming from Dallas, especially in coverage against running backs.
THINGS THAT NEED TO IMPROVE
The defense ... woof: There's no reason to panic yet because change doesn't happen overnight and new defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo will get them playing better at some point, but the Chiefs have been terrible on defense so far. The Chiefs have allowed their first two opponents to average 6 yards per carry, worst in the league. And it's been worse in the air. The Chiefs ranked 31st in pass defense in 2018 and have been vulnerable again so far this season, allowing opponents to complete almost 70 percent of their passes and average 7 yards per attempt.
Edge makeover has been a bust so far: Remember when the Chiefs traded Dee Ford and allowed Justin Houston to walk in free agency? They thought they had a great backup plan by trading for Seahawks end Frank Clark, but that cost KC a first- and second-round pick, plus a five-year contract with $63.5 million guaranteed. And the Chiefs signed Alex Okafor, an underrated player in New Orleans. What do they have to show for it? They each have one hurry to this point, and zero sacks. Yikes.
Injuries are taking a real toll: Not only have the Chiefs been without Hill and Williams, but now they won't have left tackle Eric Fisher for several weeks after undergoing core-muscle surgery. Plus, CB Morris Claiborne is suspended the first four games because of the substance abuse policy.
The offensive line is not good: Schwartz is awesome at right tackle, but center Austin Reiter has been terrible to this point, left guard Andrew Wylie hasn't been much better, and now former first-round bust Cam Erving is expected to play left tackle.
Chiefs have a tougher schedule than the Patriots: While the two favorites will share two common opponents — the Ravens and Texans — that the Chiefs will host, while New England will face them on the road, the Chiefs have the tougher slate with the Colts, Texans, Packers, Vikings, Chargers (twice) and Bears coming up. The Patriots have the Ravens, Eagles, Cowboys and Texans, even though three are on the road.
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Another easy one: For the third-straight week, the Patriots won't have any trouble in this game. Sure, the Jets will be a little feisty on defense, but that's about it. Would be nice to see the ground game get going a little bit, but the big key will be neutralizing New York's excellent safety, Jamal Adams. Watch for Brady to manipulate where Adams lines up with motion. They'll want Adams to be in coverage deep in the secondary. If he's in the box, everyone will need to have an eye out.
Patriots 34, Jets 6
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NOTES FROM AROUND THE LEAGUE
- Count Cole Beasley as someone who's taken a liking to Bills QB Josh Allen. Beasley caught five passes for 40 yards in the opener. Last week, he finished with one less catch, but led the team in receiving with 83 yards. Beasley’s 51-yard reception was the Bills’ longest play of the game on offense and one of the longest receptions of the receiver’s career.
- According to league sources, the Chiefs and Ravens are in pursuit of Jaguars CB Jalen Ramsey. The Chiefs make the most sense, but don't rule out Baltimore. The team's impressive could spring GM Eric DeCosta into action to make an imprint during his first season taking over for Ozzie Newsome.
- Cardinals GM Steve Keim told a Phoenix radio show the team won't be trading CB Patrick Peterson, currently suspended six games for PEDs, at any point. “We’re not trading Pat and that’s something we’ve been very consistent with, from (team President) Michael (Bidwill) to myself to coach (Kliff Kingsbury),” Keim said. “When you look at the kind of player Pat is, and I think arguably the best corner in the National Football League, all you have to do is say, ‘Does this make your team better or worse?’ And I think to lose someone like Pat Peterson would make us worse.”
- Starter Alex Anzalone is the fourth linebacker the Saints have placed on the injured reserve dating to the preseason. Will Compton, Colton Jumper and Josh Martin were placed there at roster cutdowns. Anzalone is a good player. This will be another obstacle for the Saints.
- Lions rookie tight end T.J. Hockenson caught six passes for 131 yards and one touchdown in the first game of his NFL career. In his second NFL game, Hockenson had one catch for 7 yards as the Chargers schemed to shut him down. “It’s tough because when they take a good player out of the game, it’s hard for you from that standpoint,” Matt Patricia said. “But the growth standpoint of him being able to see those things early in his career will help him longer. Long-term wise that will happen as opposed to maybe some players that get away with it their first year, and then the second year they come in and it’s all different for them as a player.”