McAdam: Even with recent hot streak, math doesn't look good for Red Sox

Before beginning the final series of their West Coast road trip, the Red Sox were on a roll, winning four of the first five games.

They took two-of-three from San Diego and then swept the Rockies in a two-game set in Denver.

It wasn't perfect -- that would have required a win last Sunday against the Padres -- but it was close.

It also did them little good in the standings. Before the Sox started this eight-game road trip, they were seven games behind Tampa for the second wild card.

When play began Friday, they had narrowed that to 5.5 games -- even after winning their last two series. One loss in a period of a week meant that the Sox picked up a net gain of a game and a half in the standings.

See how hard this is going to be?



The problem here is that only are the Sox trailing in the standings; it's that they're trailing two teams in the standings. They can win and gain ground on the team next closest to them in the standings (currently, that's Tampa Bay). But with three teams bunched together -- Tampa Bay, Cleveland and Oakland -- the task is that much harder.

Even if you were to concede one spot to one of the teams, the Sox need two teams in front of them to lose -- while, of course, the Red Sox keep winning -- to make up any significant ground.

Worse, for the Red Sox, is that they don't play two of those three teams again this season. The Sox were done with Oakland for the year back on May 1, and their recent series in Cleveland, where they took two-of-three, marked the end of their season series with the Indians.

The Sox do still have a four-game set at Tampa Bay on the next-to-last weekend of the season. But the Sox could go in and get a sweep of the Rays -- as they did back in April -- and, if the Indians and A's keep winning, it won't help the Red Sox one bit.

Let's look at things another way. Starting Friday, the Red Sox have 28 games remaining. Let's give them the benefit of the doubt and say they can, in four week's time, play at a strong pace and give them a 20-8 record in those games.

That would leave the Red Sox with 92 wins, or about the typical number in recent years for the second wild-card spot. But for that to mean anything, the Sox need the teams ahead to slip.

The A's have 29 games remaining. To fall behind the Sox in the wild card pecking order -- let's leave the matter of ties, tie-breakers and play-in games for another time -- the A's would need to go 14-15 in those 29 games.

Meanwhile, the Indians, with, like the Red Sox, 28 games to play, would need to go no better than 12-16. And Tampa, with 27 games left, would need to go no better than 14-13. That said, remember that for the moment, the Rays are almost out of the equation since, currently, like the Sox themselves, they're on the outside looking in.

The Rays, however, have one advantage: they're closer to the second spot than are the Red Sox, by 4.5 games going into Friday's play.

Here's the other sobering thought: there are times when no matter how well the Sox play, they'll find it impossible to gain ground on at least one of the teams. Case in point: this weekend, with Cleveland and Tampa Bay playing one another. For the next three days, one of those two teams -- both ahead of the Red Sox -- will be guaranteed a victory, thus taking a day off the calendar.

And here's yet another: In assigning the Sox a 20-8 finish, we're projecting -- for the purpose of this exercise -- that the Sox can play at that level for four a period of four weeks. In reality, that's something they haven't done all season, though they've come close.

From April 24 to May 23, the Red Sox went 17-8. Similarly, from June 12 to July 18, the Sox went 18-10. So they've come close, which suggests a run isn't totally out of the question.

Of course, in both of those stretches, the Red Sox had Chris Sale available, and while Sale was highly inconsistent for stretches, he was also seemingly capable of a big start to either extend a winning streak or stop a losing skid. Now, Sale is out of the picture.

BaseballReference.com puts the Red Sox playoff chances at 2.8 percent. Baseball Prospectus has them only slightly better at 3.1.

And if those sound like improbable long shots, that's because they are. Just like the Red Sox themselves.