Still trying to digest the news that Andrew Luck, the first overall pick in the 2012 draft, decided to retire just days shy of his 30th birthday and following a very good season in which he was NFL Comeback Player of the Year. It's not a stretch to say this is the most stunning sports retirement since Michael Jordan walked away from the NBA.
But here are some wide-ranging thoughts from who's to blame, the unretirement rumors that are soon to flare up as soon as another No. 12 finally decides to hang them up and the inevitable misguided testaments to Tom Brady. But first, we'll start with the most important fallout from a Patriots' perspective — the landscape in the AFC:
One possible contender is basically eliminated
I don't care that Luck was 0-6 vs. the Patriots in his now-brief career — wins and losses are team stats — there was little doubt the Colts were going to be in the postseason picture in the AFC. And if you were putting together a list of teams that could compete with New England and Kansas City if things went their way, the Colts were probably at the top of the list. The 2018 Colts started 1-5 but won nine of their final 10 games to get in, register a road playoff win at Houston before bowing out against the Chiefs.
The reason for the turnaround came from the Colts' defense via the offense. Only one team (KC) was better offensively from Weeks 7-17 according to FootballOutsiders.com's advanced metrics. The offensive efficiency kept the defense off the field and made them much better. Normally teams which close strong roll that into this next season. And this was a team that had been rebuilt slowly but steadily by GM Chris Ballard. They added some key pieces (Justin Houston, Devin Funchess) and had another strong draft. The offensive line had been built and the offense was tailored to Luck's strengths. All signs were pointing up. Jacoby Brissett is no slouch and the Colts will contend for a playoff spot, but a maturing Luck gave them an opportunity to grow into being Super Bowl contenders. Now that's over.
AFC home-field could shift
The Patriots have one of the league's easiest schedules on paper this season, and that's not going to change. But what will be altered now is it's become easier for the eventual AFC South winner — and the Jaguars, Texans and Titans should be solid, in that order — could pick up a game or two on their final record because they now figure to be favorites over the Colts in every matchup.
Same goes for three teams that figure to be heavily involved in the AFC playoff picture: Chargers, Chiefs, Steelers. Don't think it's a stretch to say Luck's retirement could be the difference between the Patriots hosting the AFC Championship Game, or having to travel to KC again.
Who's to blame?
It's obvious: former GM Ryan Grigson. The man who Lucked into the first overall pick only drafted three offensive linemen in the first six rounds during his tenure. The Colts' offensive line was terrible until last season, and it subjected Luck to a game-in-game-out pounding that ultimately led to his decision. “I’m in pain, I’m still in pain. It’s been four years of this pain, rehab cycle,” Luck said. It also didn't help that Luck started in Bruce Arians' offense, which is infamous for its deep drops and deep shots, both of which subjects quarterbacks to unnecessary hits.
A replacement for Brady?
What if Luck takes a few years off and rediscovers his health and wants to return to the NFL. Say Brady retires after the 2022 season, when he's 45 — and given his contract, it could be sooner. Luck will only be 34 for the 2023 season.
So one 12 to another?
Doubtful. Unless the Colts release him (the Jets did that with Favre), Luck's contract will toll with two years remaining and he will remain the property of the Colts. If the Colts have a great quarterback situation by then and don't want to bring him back, they would either have to release him or trade him. There's little chance the Colts will relinquish a say in where Luck plays — and they certainly won't want to aid a post-Brady Patriots and, possibly, head coach Josh McDaniels.
Don't use this to praise Brady
The list of things you can praise Tom Brady for is long and distinguished — he's arguably the greatest quarterback ever, for crying out loud. And, yes, he's been remarkably durable and some of that comes from hard work. But most of it is just luck, genetics and, in the case of Brady, the good fortune for playing on good teams with a competent GM (ahem, Grigson), for an OC that won't expose him unnecessarily to injury, and behind offensive lines coached by Dante Scarnecchia. That Luck wasn't close to being as durable as Brady is no indictment on Luck, and it's no feather in Brady's cap. It's just random and, for the NFL, disappointing.
(Adam Richins for BSJ)