While some have been quick to close the Bruins’ window when it comes to Stanley Cup contention going into the 2019-20 season and beyond, let's be frank — reports of Boston's demise have been greatly exaggerated.
Even if Boston will be without a few regulars this season such as Noel Acciari and Marcus Johansson, the B's still possess one of the top veteran cores in the league, an effective tandem in net in Tuukka Rask and Jaroslav Halak and a crop of younger skaters that are expected to take another big step in their respective development — headlined by David Pastrnak, Charlie McAvoy, Jake DeBrusk, Brandon Carlo, Matt Grzelcyk, Danton Heinen and more.
To be fair, most of the doom and gloom surrounding Boston's Cup chances going forward are more centered around the rest of the competition in the Atlantic Division and beyond, rather than the roster that the Bruins have put together.
And that's valid. One should expect the Lightning to not be swept in the first round this year, while the Capitals will also be looking for a rebound after getting knocked out of the first round by the Hurricanes. And don't forget about the Maple Leafs. And Penguins. And the Habs. And — alright, you get the point. The road to the Stanley Cup should be much, much harder for the Bruins in 2019-20.
But still, if we want to look at projected wins above replacement (WAR) for each NHL team's lineup and what it could mean in terms of standings next season, the Bruins have to be feeling pretty good as to where they stand in what should be another slugfest in the Eastern Conference.
The fantastic Sean Tierney did a great job combing through each team's projected lineup for next season and using WAR to calculate said club's projected point totals for 2019-20. And low and behold, the Bruins find themselves in a familiar spot — sitting second overall in total points (111) behind only the Tampa Bay Lightning, who pace the pack with an absurd projected point total of 125.
Rounding out the pack in the East are the Capitals (105 points), Maple Leafs (102 points), Penguins (98 points), Canadiens (95 points) and Panthers (93 points). The top projected team out West lies in the form of the Dallas Stars with 101 points, while the defending Cup champion St. Louis Blues are next up with 99 points.
Clocking in at 111 points is no joke, and thanks to Tierney's WAR Lineup Creator, the Bruins could very well tack on a few more points with a couple added tweaks to the roster.
Just for reference, here is the lineup that Tierney has projected for next season with his 111-point model.
Marchand-Bergeron-Pastrnak
DeBrusk-Krejci-Kuhlman
Heinen-Coyle-Backes
Nordstrom-Kuraly-Wagner
Chara-McAvoy
Krug-Carlo
Moore-Grzelcyk
Rask
Halak
But if we were to tinker a bit — such as slotting down Pastrnak to Krejci's line, adding Connor Clifton to the lineup, bumping down Kuhlman to the third line and adding a winger like Oskar Steen up with Bergeron and Marchand — then the Bruins are now projected at 113 points.
Even if the trio of Marchand-Bergeron-Steen's projected full-season WAR of 8.7 doesn't match up to the ProjFSW of Marchand-Bergeron-Pastrnak (12.1), the addition of No. 88 to Krejci's line does give Boston's top-six a ridiculous amount of balance, while Kuhlman could have a positive impact on a line with Coyle and Heinen.
Tierney's lineup creator really is something else, so we'll be sure to tinker with a few more lineup possibilities as we get closer and closer to the regular season. But one thing's for certain — barring a major catastrophe, the Bruins should once again be prime contenders for another Cup run next spring.
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That's why Amur Khabarovsk is called 'Tigers Territory'.
(? @hcamur) pic.twitter.com/2fWjdOzRu8
— KHL (@khl_eng) August 9, 2019
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You had one job...? pic.twitter.com/fmzYQWKuFf
— Robin Lehner (@RobinLehner) August 10, 2019
Stats and graphs via Natural Stat Trick, Corsica, Sean Tierney, Manny Perry and HockeyViz.