McAdam: Fixing Red Sox rotation won't be easy

It will be necessary to upgrade the bullpen, figure out the right side of the infield and make some big (and difficult) decisions about some players on the roster headed to free agency.

But if the Red Sox are going to turn things around this off-season, the bulk of their work will have to begin with the team's starting rotation.

Make no mistake: the Red Sox are where they are -- several furlongs out of first place,  and at the very edges of the wild card race -- because of the failure of their starting pitchers. The Red Sox spent a lot of money on their rotation and envisioned it as the primary strength of their roster.

Instead, Red Sox starters carried a ghastly 5.09 ERA into Thursday's game. The projected Big 5 of Chris Sale, David Price, Rick Porcello, Nathan Eovladi and Eduardo Rodriguez have combined for just 40 quality starts -- or about one every three games.

Sale, Price, Eovaldi and Rodriguez will be under the team's control for the near future. Whether that's viewed as good or bad news depends on your confidence that the veteran starters can turn things around.

And that's where things get tricky.



Price and Sale are likely viewed as untradeable within the industry. Price will be 34 at the start of next season and is due $96 million over the next three seasons. And while it's true that the Arizona Diamondbacks recently dealt Zack Greinke, a year older than Price, Greinke had just two years remaining on his landmark contract (at $35 million per, slightly above Price's salary), he's also transitioned far better from power pitcher to one who relies more on finesse.

And while Greinke returned three good prospects from the Houston Astros, the Diamondbacks had to eat a considerable chunk of his remaining contract.

Could the Sox do the same with Price? Yes. But it would be naïve to think that they could expect fair value in return.

Dealing Sale would be virtually unthinkable, since the five-year, $145 million contract extension he agreed to back in March doesn't even kick in until next season. And Sale's subpar season will do nothing to enhance his value further.

Eovaldi will have three years and $51 million remaining and while that's not onerous, his injury history -- two Tommy John procedures and two lesser surgeries on his elbow -- would undoubtedly scare most teams off. So, too, will the fact that only twice in his major league career has Eovaldi pitched more than 150 innings per season.

Porcello is heading for free agency and the Red Sox have shown little inclination to extend him. He wasn't approached this spring when the team got deals done with fellow free agents-to-be Sale and Xander Bogaerts. There's been the suggestion that Porcello's durability and competitiveness might lead to the Sox giving him a qualifying offer this fall.

That would limit their liability to him for a single season, but it's also hard to justify paying about $18 million to someone whose ERA is currently 5.54.

That leaves Rodriguez, who is under control for two more seasons. He's both the youngest and cheapest starter of the bunch, it wouldn't seem to make sense to shop him. Then again, precisely because of his age, he might have the most value, and if the Red Sox are resigned to retaining Sale, Price and Eovaldi, moving Rodriguez could result in the team getting several younger pitching prospects in return.

What's most clear is that the Red Sox don't have much in the way of immediate help on the horizon. In the team's minor league system. Bryan Mata is regarded as the best starting pitching prospect and he's only 20, having recently been promoted to Double-A.

It would seem that Mata can't be counted on until the second half of next year at the earliest. Other potential starters are similarly short on experience and development. Even Mata, though highly regarded, can't be viewed as a sure thing.

It's this inability to develop starting pitchers that have put the Red Sox in their current predicament.  The organization hasn't had a homegrown starter make meaningful contributions since Clay Buchholz.

That's led to them having to stock their rotation through free agency (Price, Eovaldi) or via trade (Sale), with neither an efficient pathway. Free agency requires outsized, long-term commitments while dealing for established front-line starters can strip-mine a player development system.

And so the Sox face a winter conundrum: stay with the pitchers who underperformed this season, along with the inflated salary burden or deal them at a loss in expected return and begin a rebuilding process.

Neither one is appetizing, emphasizing how the disappointment of 2019 may linger past this September.