Examining the prohibitive cost of a potential D'Angelo Russell pursuit for Celtics

With Kyrie Irving all but out the door in Boston, the Celtics are going to need some help in the shot creation department next season, particularly at point guard.

There are internal options in play here for Boston. In fact, I'd expect Marcus Smart to be the frontrunner to start at point guard upon Irving’s departure. Terry Rozier remains a possibility to return in a reserve capacity despite his inflammatory remarks after the season thanks to his restricted free agency tag. However, the Celtics can certainly do better than him on the offensive end when you factor in his 38 percent career shooting mark from the field.

One common name that has made the rounds in recent days as a potential Celtics target is Nets point guard D’Angelo Russell. We’ve covered him previously at BSJ but reports out of New York emphasize that he is likely done in Brooklyn if the team brings in Irving due to their positional overlap.

The question for the Celtics is whether they have any realistic routes to acquire him. The answer is yes, but nearly all of them will come at a high cost.

Sign-and-trade

This type of maneuver would be the preferred route for the Celtics in any scenario when Irving leaves. If and when he officially tells the Celtics he’s going to leave Boston, the first move Danny Ainge will make is trying to arrange a sign-and-trade with Irving’s next team to keep open the possibility of such eventual compensation for Boston.

It’s important to note that any team that Irving is going to sign with will have max cap room already, so a franchise like Brooklyn will be under no obligation to participate in a sign-and-trade with Boston since it would serve them no benefit and help the Celtics (by landing them a player or a cap exception) without compensation attached.

In order to justify taking part, the Celtics would have to sweeten the pot by adding in a first round pick (at the least). In that scenario, the Nets may agree to take part and Irving could sign off on the deal as well (since that pick helps his new team improve). However, in the case of a player like Russell, the compensation may even need to be higher than a first round pick from Boston in order to agree to facilitate a key addition to a division rival. The Nets could easily tell the Celtics to kick sand, knowing they have few other avenues to improve this offseason.

If the Celtics and Nets could come to terms on compensation, the next question is whether the terms of the trade would work straight up with the salary matching for Russell and Irving. The answer here is yes since both Irving and Russell are Base Year Compensation players. Irving would be earning more than Russell in their next deal no matter what so the Celtics would be sending out more money than they are bringing in. Irving’s cap figure for trade purposes would count as $20.1 million (his previous salary) while Russell would count for half his 2019-20 salary (we will estimate it at 50 percent of $25 million, so $12.5 million).

Upon completion of a deal, both teams would enter into a hard cap (i.e. the apron) for $138 million if they receive a player in the sign-and-trade. This could serve as a potential deterrent for Boston if they want more flexibility with trades, along with the spending power to bring back Morris and Horford. Horford taking a discount in his new contract would help matters on this front, but it's unlikely there would be enough room for both veterans.

The other biggest obstacle for the Celtics with targeting Russell is finding a contract they think is fair value. While it’s ideal to get any kind of compensation for Irving (instead of losing him for nothing), giving up first round picks for the purpose of signing a young player to a bloated contract would not necessarily be a step forward for the franchise

There are going to be a number of suitors for Russell on the open market as teams like Utah and Indiana could use help at the position and have tons of cap room. Is paying a 23-year-old Russell $25 million a smart play? $20 million? He was an All-Star last year but he struggles on defense and has shot selection issues. He’s not a clear-cut No. 1 or 2 option on a winning team. It’s hard to envision the C’s giving up multiple picks and a key veteran or two for the right to overpay him.

Opening up cap space

The alternative option for the Celtics would be to open up the necessary cap space in order to sign Russell outright if the Nets aren’t interested in retaining him. In this scenario, the Celtics are saying goodbye to all of their key free agents (Al Horford, Marcus Morris, Terry Rozier) in order to open up the $20-plus million needed to go after Russell.

It’s a more ideal path than giving up picks for Russell but the Celtics should not want to give up the ability to keep all of those three players (especially Horford) just so they can sign Russell. Perhaps, this will be a route the team explores if Horford tells the Celtics he wants to go elsewhere and opts out, but until that happens, this just isn’t a realistic road for the Celtics to go down.

In fact, if the Celtics do open up significant cap space after Horford’s departure, there are better names on the open market to target than Russell. Boston has a very capable point guard (Smart) under contract for the next three years and he deserves a chance to start in all likelihood. Ainge is better spending his money at other positions (or retaining Morris) than backing up the Brinks truck for Russell.