Al Horford's next decision will speak volumes about Celtics' young core

Al Horford has been a believer in Danny Ainge’s vision for the Celtics for three years and counting. He joined the team in the summer of 2016 despite beating the Celtics in the first round with the Hawks, seeing a franchise with a plan towards building towards the top.

Boston overachieved early on in Horford’s tenure, rewarding his faith with a pair of surprise trips to the Eastern Conference Finals despite injuries and an underdog label. The franchise appeared poised to contend for decades with a blend of youth and experience at the helm, after the acquisitions of Kyrie Irving and Gordon Hayward. Now? A direct path towards contention looks murky with Irving expected to walk out the door, Hayward’s ceiling remaining uncertain and Anthony Davis heading to Los Angeles.

The decision not to match the Lakers’ pricy package was a very understandable one for the Celtics' front office. Ainge did not want to sacrifice a significant collection of young talent and draft picks for one year of limited upside with Davis. There wasn’t going to be enough leftover talent after the trade to guarantee anything for the C’s after contending in order to match the Lakers offer.

Instead, the Celtics appear to be giving a vote of confidence in their young talent now to emerge and carry them to back towards the East elite. We’ve seen them do it once before in 2018 (albeit against far weaker competition) but Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown were among the top three players on the playoff roster that got within one game of the NBA Finals.

The all-around games of Brown and Tatum remained in neutral for much of the 2018-19 season due to a confluence of roster dynamics. More opportunity will be knocking again for both this fall, assuming they both remain Celtics this offseason. If everything goes right for them with their development, a case can be made that the Celtics can compete at the top of the East, particularly if the front office succeeds with making upgrades on the fringes of the rotation and Hayward gets closer to his Utah form.

How believable is that kind of scenario? We are about to find out in the coming days with a crucial decision looming for Al Horford. The deadline for him to opt into a $30.1 million player option is Tuesday (although both sides could agree to move that back). The Celtics have already publicly expressed interest in bringing Horford back on a longer-term deal, yet it’s understandable why the veteran may show some pause with Irving expected to walk and the best upgrade available (Davis) gone. Here’s Horford talking about his future goals earlier this year with BSJ.

“Ever since I came into the league, I always want to contend for a championship,” Horford said. “As soon as I got to Boston, especially this last couple of years, the last year we were right there. I haven't won one yet and that's kind of like where I want to start. That's what I play for. I'm not playing for anything else but to win.”

Whether or not Horford believes the Celtics can contend with this type of roster is largely dependent on his opinion of guys like Tatum and Brown. He’s seen them at their best and worst over the last two years and knows more about their habits and tendencies than all of us. Whether or not he thinks the 2018 run to the Eastern Conference Finals is a fluke or more representative of their potential should be answered to some degree with Horford’s decision.

The good news for the Celtics now is that there is no clear cut team that has the money to pay Horford what the Celtics can and need him as a final piece to contend. The Rockets may be the most realistic fit (if he wants out), but the C’s are likely to fetch some assets via a sign-and-trade in that scenario since Houston is over the cap and Horford will command more than the taxpayer mid-level exception.

Other playoff teams with max salary cap room (Indiana, Utah) have long roads towards contending, while the big markets (New York, Los Angeles) will probably be looking for younger stars to build around than the 33-year-old Horford.

If Horford elects to take a David West-style pay cut, he could go play anywhere (including Golden State). However, the Celtics will undoubtedly be willing to make him a far wealthier man than that if he can remain as a veteran leader for this young roster. Ainge could also offer him the ability to ask out for a contender if things go south in the next two years in Boston as a way to lock in a return.

The Celtics sold Horford well on a vision in the summer of 2016 and they are going to have to do so again three years later to ensure he remains in Green in the fallout of a disastrous season. A three-year extension for $65-70 million is probably enough to outbid the competition if money is a factor in his decision.

Does Horford believe this young Celtics core plus Gordon Hayward can re-emerge back at the top of the East? His decision this week should speak volumes on that front. From an optics perspective, the Celtics should be doing whatever they can to stop the bleeding and ensure Horford is a top-tier name that still wants to play in Boston.