NBA Notebook: Celtics trade value power rankings Part 3 - Who is No. 2?

With just eight players currently under contract for the Celtics heading into the 2019-20 season, there will be plenty of opportunity for change this offseason as Danny Ainge attempts to build a contender yet again.

To sort through it all, let’s take a closer look at the players under team control in our third and final edition of the 2019 Celtics trade value power rankings. We’ve counted down all the past players in recent weeks in Part 1 and Part 2 working up to top assets on the roster in this edition, highlighting the type of talent they could fetch (if anything) and the likelihood of said players being moved. Since the Celtics also have three first-round draft picks in 2019 and a Memphis first-round pick moving forward, we will include those picks in the rankings as a reference point.

Criteria: This isn’t simply ranking the best-to-worst players on the roster. There is significantly more that goes into a player’s trade value around the league than just talent (although that’s important). A player’s age, contract situation and injury history are all vital factors. Multiple scouts from around the league were consulted as this list was put together.

4. Jaylen Brown
Age: 22
2019-20 salary: $6.5 million
Remaining contract: One year (restricted free agency in 2020)
2018-19 stats: 13.0 points, 4.2 rebounds, 1.4 assists, 46% FG, 34% 3pt, 25.9 mpg
Overview: This may seem a little bit low for the third-year guard but opinions around the league remain mixed about Brown’s upside. Factor that in with the fact that he’s due a considerable raise after the upcoming year upon hitting restricted free agency and that will give some teams pause in terms of his value.

Brown made the best of a tough situation last year after being demoted from the starting lineup in November. His slow offensive start was a key reason why the team started 10-10 but he bounced back, found his footing off the bench and made the most of his reduced minutes. Slowly but surely, he earned back more of Brad Stevens trust and found his way into some late-game situations but defensive lapses still proved to pop up with him more often than others in year three (the same can be said for several young players on this roster). He has the physical tools to be elite at the spot though and really keyed in nicely during the postseason to help slow down Bojan Bogdanovic in the first round and Khris Middleton in parts of Round 2. The outside shooting took a discouraging stepback but Brown’s finishing around the rim improved as the year went on, as did his touch on midrange postups and turnaround. His shot selection can be iffy at times still when he heads into traffic but he was one of the few players that carried his weight offensively against the Bucks in the second round collapse.

With more opportunity in Boston or elsewhere, Brown is poised to look more like the emerging star that kept Danny Ainge from including him in a Kawhi Leonard offer. Several league executive have questions about Brown’s passing ability and defensive awareness but there is still plenty of time for growth in those areas at age 23. He has shown he can be a viable top three offensive option in the postseason, but the question that must be asked is whether he can ever be one on a contender. Some team is going to have to invest $20-plus million per year all likelihood next year to retain him and that’s a contract that could look like a net negative (such as Otto Porter Jr.) without some gains by Brown. Due to that uncertainty, he gets slid in behind Smart on that list, although there is no question he has the higher long-term upside.

3. Marcus Smart
Age: 25
2019-20 salary: $12.5 million
Remaining contract: Three years, $39 million 
2018-19 stats: 8.9 points, 2.9 rebounds, 4.0 assists, 42.2% FG, 36.4 % 3pt 27.5 mpg
Overview: There is no one on the Celtics roster that improved their stock more during the 2018-19 season than Smart. His contract is one of the few things about the 2018-19 season that went well for the Celtics. The $52-million, four-year pact turned from a potential overpay last summer to one of the best value contracts in the NBA for a player that’s not on a rookie contract. It looks even better in the wake of Smart earned All-Defensive honors for the first time in his career, a well-deserved honor which was certainly helped by his insertion into the starting five last November.

He will be making an average of $13 million per year as he enters his prime for the next three seasons. His outside shooting (36 percent from 3-point range) eliminated the biggest wart in his game, forcing defenses to respect him on offense more, which helped the C’s improve spacing. Beyond his defensive excellence, he made huge strides on the offensive end last season in lowering his turnover rate and showing off much better shot selection with reduced usage. The only true pitfall of his campaign was an ill-timed oblique injury in game No. 81, which made him miss seven postseason games and look very rusty (1-of-11 from the field) in Games 4 and 5 against Milwaukee after rushing back from the court. The C’s clearly needed him at full strength against the Bucks to even have a chance but with him at less than full strength, they faltered on both ends of the floor.

If the Celtics elect to stay young this offseason and not chase a star via trade, Smart looks like the likely choice to start at point guard for the long term. However, there is no question the team signed him last year as a way to help facilitate deals. His improved trade value helps them on that front but also risks the team losing some of its heart and soul. He’s a great role player on a terrific contract that any team would love to have, whether they are contending or rebuilding. That cost control and his offensive gains catapult him to a surprise No. 3 on this list.

2. Memphis protected first round pick
2020: Protected 1-6
2021: Unprotected
Overview: The Celtics got some good news and bad news when it comes to the value of this selection on lottery night. While it certainly helped that the pick rolled over to 2020 to maintain it as a tradable asset past next week, the Grizzlies will be adding the second-best prospect in the draft (Ja Morant) to their core at No. 2 on Thursday night.

It’s clear that the Grizzlies are intent on rebuilding (a trade of Mike Conley Jr. is likely coming) but there is a direct possibility that Memphis could be better than anticipated over the next two years. The Celtics want to sell this selection to others as a legitimate chance at a top-3 pick in 2021 but teaming up Jaren Jackson Jr., Ja Morant and Jonas Valanciunas has the potential to be a respectable lottery squad in the next few years. The quick improvement of the Sacramento Kings last year from a bottom feeder to contending for the postseason served as a potential warning sign for what could be when prospects mature quickly.

There’s no guarantee that happens in Memphis, though, and this is clearly one of the best non-team owned draft assets on the open market. Memphis is still in salary cap hell until Chandler Parsons and Conley come off the books and the Grizzlies have very limited means to improve before then. The new draft lottery odds may hurt the ability to get No. 1 (13.5 percent chance is highest possible) but that adds increased upside to the bottom five teams as well. The Celtics will do their best to sell that aspect of this pick in their attempts to shop it in the weeks to come.

1. Jayson Tatum
Age: 21
2019-20 salary: $7.8 million
Remaining contract: Two years, $17.8 million total (Final year is a team option)
2018-19 stats: 15.7 mpg, 6.0 rpg, 2.1 apg, 45% FG, 37.3% 3pt, 31.1 mpg
Overview: Tatum remains far and away as one of the best (potentially) available prospects for trade in the game despite an underwhelming postseason for the Celtics. He remained among the team’s best in plus/minus all year long and, despite taking a step back with his shot selection at times, he remains an above-average 3-point shooter and made gains when he got to the rim.

There’s no question that the bulk of talent on the roster was a limiting factor in his development in year two as his shot attempt rate only increased marginally despite a breakout rookie postseason. He will need to work on his aggressiveness (free throw rate went down) and defense, but his combination of shot creation ability and youth still make him a building block for the future no matter where he lands.

The Celtics will only make him available in a trade for a superstar and it seems unlikelier by the day that they would be willing to sacrifice him in a deal that contains the kind of risk that Anthony Davis (traded to Los Angeles) entails. He’s likely to be under team control for the next six years of his career and with plenty of room for growth, there is undeniable upside here.