Mike Conley Jr., on paper, is exactly the kind of player the Celtics should be going after if they lose Kyrie Irving in free agency this summer and remain in 'win now' mode. Despite his age (31) and pricy salary, he's got a nice mix of scoring and passing ability and is almost certain to be moved this summer after Memphis landed the No. 2 overall pick in the 2019 NBA Draft. Point guard Ja Morant is the likely choice for the Grizzlies with that selection, giving the Grizzlies another reason to sell high now with Conley following a strong year for the veteran.
We've already brought up some of the particulars of the Celtics potentially pursuing Conley last month and that possibility was brought back to the forefront on Tuesday night after Adrian Wojnarowski of ESPN.com mentioned the Celtics while discussing Conley Jr. in a TV Draft special as a potential suitor. While some have tweeted that Wojnarowski linked the Pacers, Jazz and Celtics (if Kyrie leaves) as having interest in Conley Jr., listening to the exact words from Wojnarowski shows an important clarification here. He is not reporting those teams have interest in Conley, he's just suggesting the possibility, a huge difference. Here's the full quote on the matter.
"Conley has great value," said Wojnarowski. "He’s got two years left on his deal. Teams like Utah who talked about potential trades, who need point guards. If Boston loses Kyrie Irving in free agency, do they look at perhaps — a Mike Conley? Indiana, another team that talked trade, needs a point guard, I think (Memphis) could get a really good package back for him."
League sources indicated to BostonSportsJournal.com that while the Celtics like Conley, it's highly unlikely they swing a deal for him this summer even if Irving leaves. Why? The mechanics behind the deal would be incredibly tough to pull off.
We've already broken down the challenges of salary matching across the NBA and doing it with Mike Conley Jr. ($30.5 million) is an extremely tough task when you look at the options on the Celtics roster. Since Irving will only create a $20.1 million trade exception if he is sign-and-traded, Conley could not be dealt into that exception if it was created since he makes too much money. That option is off the table due to base year compensation rules.
That leaves Danny Ainge with just two other options to acquire Conley. The first one would be using Al Horford in a three-team trade to bring in Conley since his salary ($30.1 million) would be a match. A rebuilding Memphis squad would clearly have little interest in Horford (nor would he want to play there) so the mechanics here would be Horford going to a contender, the contender sending assets to Memphis/Boston and Conley heading to Boston.
The problem with this hypothetical is the logic behind it for all sides. If the Celtics are in win-now mode, why would they want to trade Horford for Conley? That's merely a step sideways for the team in the big picture since losing Horford would create a huge hole in the frontcourt. It just wouldn't make sense for Boston from that standpoint.
With the Horford and Irving options looking like dead ends, that creates one final possibility that we discussed last month. Trading Gordon Hayward for Conley. We thought that would be a long shot last month and Ainge's recent comments about Hayward has us doubling down on that stance. Hayward does not sound like a guy that will be traded this summer.
“I’m really excited for Gordon’s upcoming season," Ainge said last Wednesday. "He’s working hard right now in the gym. He’s here every day with five or six coaches and bodies out there working extremely hard. He’s put a lot of time in. I’m anticipating great things from Gordon this next year. I don’t really look at it as fading in the Milwaukee series. I look at it as sometimes it’s just opportunity. There’s only one ball out there. And I’m not worried about Gordon Hayward. I’m not worried about his future or how good a player he is. He’s doing everything he can. If he doesn’t become the player that he wants to be then it won’t be from a lack of trying. But I’m very excited and optimistic about his future.”
Given the Hayward/Stevens relationship, Hayward's low value on the trade market and the team's belief in him bouncing back, it's hard to envision the Celtics giving up Hayward (and assets on top of it) in order to land a pricy point guard. It's a safer bet that Conley will have a better season than Hayward next year but it's far from a guarantee if the swingman returns healthy. More importantly, that type of move looks like a step sideways rather than a step forward in terms of contending now.
That's pretty much where the options end for Boston. The team would need to combine several other salaries to make a deal work and get close to $30 million and that's a non-starter since it would involve Jayson Tatum and Marcus Smart among others. So while Conley is expected to hit the trade market in the next few weeks, don't put much stock into the Celtics' chances of landing him. Moving Hayward for him is the only realistic path towards a deal and that's a route this front office doesn't seem to have much interest in traveling down.
