It all comes down to this.
For the first time in the Bruins’ 95-year history, Boston will take part in a Game 7 in the Stanley Cup Final on home ice, with the greatest trophy in sports set to be lifted by either the B’s or Blues Wednesday night.
History, generally speaking, is on the side of the Bruins in this bout, with home teams boasting a .750 win percentage (12-4) during Game 7 of the Cup Final. But beyond the venue, there are many factors falling in favor of Boston when it comes to determining a victor from the first Cup Final to run the gamut of seven games since Bruins/Canucks in 2011.
Here's a look at the seven reasons why the Bruins will clinch their seventh Stanley Cup championship later tonight in front of a raucous Garden crowd. (And three reasons why they won't).
SEVEN REASONS WHY THE BRUINS WILL LIFT THE STANLEY CUP
Tuukka Rask has managed to be even better during closeout scenarios this spring
We've pretty much hit the point where, even if the Bruins come up short on Wednesday, Tuukka Rask very well might take home the Conn Smythe Trophy as postseason MVP anyway (and likely toss it in the trash after heading off the ice). Of course, players like Ryan O'Reilly, Alex Pietrangelo, Colton Parayko and Vladimir Tarasenko have all impressed for the Blues, but Rask has simply been on another level this spring.
Through 23 games during this Cup run, Rask is now 15-8 with a .938 save percentage — while his goals saved above average mark 5.97 is still far and away tops among all netminders this postseason.
But during the most pivotal moments of what has now been a two-month campaign for the Bruins, Rask has managed to be even better. When facing elimination against both the Maple Leafs and Blues, Rask is 3-0 with a 1.34 goals-against average and .953 save percentage. In series-clinching scenarios, he's been downright unconscious, stopping 95 of the 96 shots that have come his way. That *takes out calculator* is good for a .990 save percentage.
If he manages to post a clean sheet on Wednesday night, Rask could close out this run by becoming the first goaltender in NHL history to record three series-clinching shutouts in one playoff year. At this point, would you put it past him?
The Blues can't overcome Boston's special-teams dominance
It'd be one thing if St. Louis was able to draw even in at least one facet of special-teams play during the Stanley Cup Final. Sure, going 1-for-18 on the power play is not what you want to see from your club, but if the Blues were at least able to curtail a Bruins' power play poised to be the first unit since 1981 to close out a postseason with a success rate over 30%, Craig Berube would at least have some sort of a silver lining to take away from 5v5 play.
Such hasn't been the case, with Boston still cashing in on 29.1% (7-for-24) of its chances on the power play during the Cup Final — highlighted by a 4-for-4 showing in Game 3 in which all four of the B's shots on goal found the back of the net. After an 0-for-5 skid during Boston's two-game losing streak in Games 4 and 5, the Bruins managed to right the ship on the PP again in Game 6, with Brad Marchand sniping a puck past Jordan Binnington on a 5v3 sequence in the opening stanza. When that unit is operating at a high level, it's nearly impossible to contain — with Torey Krug orchestrating plays at the blue line, Marchand skating at the half wall, Patrice Bergeron set up at the bumper and David Pastrnak awaiting a one-time feed at the left circle. Add a zone-entry aficionado like Marcus Johansson to the mix, and the Blues could be done in if Boston's power play closes out a successful 2018-19 campaign with another goal or two.
Add in the play of Zdeno Chara, Brandon Carlo and others on a penalty kill that boasts an 88.4% success rate (a sizable improvement from a 79.9% rate during the regular season), and the Blues' avenues for either clawing back from a deficit or protecting a lead in Game 7 are likely going to have to come at 5v5 play.
The Blues can't keep up when Boston picks up the pace
Rather than opt to trade punches against a heavy Blues team, Bruce Cassidy and his team switched things up in Game 6, slotting in shifty rookie Karson Kuhlman over 6-foot-3 David Backes on Boston's second line.
Boston's roster is a Swiss Army Knife in terms of the type of game they can play, giving Cassidy the freedom to adjust over the course of a series if speed should be replaced with a bit of snarl, and vice versa. On Sunday night in Game 6, the Bruins took advantage of a Blues team that, while imposing out on the ice, can be exposed both on the breakout and in the O-zone if you get your feet moving against them.
Inserting Kuhlman into the lineup was a masterstroke for Cassidy, with the rookie using his wheels to assist the B's blueliners against St. Louis' forecheck, while winning puck battles and getting inside Grade-A areas before big bodies like Parayko and Pietrangelo were able to react. If fellow speedsters like Sean Kuraly, Jake DeBrusk, Pastrnak and more can continue to keep St. Louis on its heels, Binnington is going to have a lot of quality looks generated against him. And given his shaky play as of late, Blues ought to be very concerned.
"(Just) playing to our strength," Joakim Nordstrom said Boston's play in Game 6. "I thought we ramped up the pace a little bit and played to our strengths. I think we're a better skating team, and if we're playing to our pace both skating and moving the puck, I think we've taken over a little bit and created more chances, playing better defensively.
When we're skating, we're getting back on pucks better. It obviously helps our D to break the puck out. Same thing goes up ice. We get on the forecheck a little bit quicker.
Bruins have found a weak line on St. Louis' D corps
A quick glance at some advanced statistics would point to the sizable impact that Vince Dunn's return has had on the Blues' blue line. Whereas five of St. Louis' six starting D-men measured out at 6-foot-3 or taller going into the series, Dunn is much more of an offensive catalyst on the back end, with the 6-foot skater tallying 35 points over 78-regular season games, while saving boxing out duties for partners like Parayko.
After missing over two weeks of game action after taking a puck to the mouth in the Western Conference Final, Dunn made his return in Game 4 of the Cup Final and added a jolt to the Blues' attack, assisting on O'Reilly's goal just 43 seconds into the contest. Since returning to the lineup, Dunn has made the most of his time in the offensive zone, with the Blues holding a 54-28 edge in shot attempts (65.85 CF%) during the 39:00 of 5v5 TOI in which the 22-year-old has been on the ice.
Impressive stuff. And yet, for all of that shot-share dominance, O'Reilly's goal stands as the lone 5v5 tally that the Blues have been able to score with Dunn out skating. Down the other end of the ice? It's a different story, with Boston managing to score four times over those 39 minutes in which Dunn has been deployed.
Targeting Dunn has often led to quality looks for Boston in the O-zone, with Game 6 standing as the latest example, as seen below.
Kuraly wins the puck battle.
Marchand with the sweet feed.
Pastrnak buries it.
4-1 Bruins. pic.twitter.com/6UjMh6jOPi
— Conor Ryan (@ConorRyan_93) June 10, 2019
