Breaking down the implications of NBA Finals through a Celtics lens

The NBA Finals are set to kick off on Thursday night in what should be the first competitive East/West matchup in three postseasons. The Warriors are still heavily favored even with Kevin Durant’s status in doubt (strained calf) for the series, but the Raptors are built far better defensively than any of LeBron’s recent Cavs teams, giving them more of a realistic chance of slowing down the two-time defending champions.

While the play on the floor will be worth watching regardless, there is a tremendous amount of fallout from this series that could have serious implications on the future of the Celtics. Let’s look closer at all of the pieces in play and figure out if there is any kind of clear best case scenario when it comes to the C’s offseason and ability to maintain a contending core this summer.

Kevin Durant: The implications seem quite obvious for one of the NBA’s perennial MVP candidates. He’s been heavily rumored for months to leave Golden State at the conclusion of the season despite denials from his representation that he’s made no decision as of yet about his future. The Warriors have managed to reel off six straight wins without him since he suffered a calf injury in Game 5 of the Western Conference Semifinals, but the Raptors will easily be the best competition they’ve faced this postseason on paper.

If the Warriors win without Durant, it’s safe to say that could be the extra push he needs to leave in order try to prove his own worth as the clear-cut No. 1 elsewhere. However, a loss without him could flip the tables on that front. Would a loss make him more likely to stay in Golden State? What about if he returns to the series with the Warriors in an early 0-2 hole and they eventually lose with him? What if he leads them to a comeback victory? There are all kinds of variable scenarios in play due to his questionable status and all of it could have an impact on his eventual decision, along with the underlying narrative. Durant admitted back in 2016 that he probably wouldn’t have gone to Golden State had they beaten the Cavs in the Finals that year so it is safe to say the free agency landscape could change here with what Durant and the Warriors do in this series.

So what exactly should the Celtics be rooting for on this front?

On the one hand, given the rumors of Kyrie Irving teaming up with Durant in New York, the best way to eliminate that possibility is Durant remaining in Golden State. On the flip side of the coin, a path to win the title for the Celtics even with Irving re-signing gets a lot tougher if Durant stays with Golden State. Ultimately, the best case scenario for the Celtics’ chances at contending would be Durant leaving the Bay Area and not teaming up with Irving this summer (assuming Irving stays). There is no clear result in these Finals that leads to that route though. The best path for the C’s future chances in the East though involves Durant remaining out West though, making rooting for the Raptors or a Durant-led comeback the best bet...at least until you have to consider the Kawhi side of the equation.

Kawhi Leonard: After months of speculation about Los Angeles looking like his next home in free agency this summer, a trip to the NBA Finals has put the Raptors in pole position to retain Leonard according to the Vegas odds. No All-Star has left a Finals champion since Michael Jordan back in 1998 (his retirement) so it is tough to foresee Leonard turning his back on Toronto after delivering them a title. The Raptors also have plenty of young prospects to try to attain another All-Star to bulk up the roster more if Leonard gives them a commitment to stay after this Finals, which makes the prospect of a Toronto title a scary one for the C’s chances in the East long-term.

Given the uncertainty of Durant and Leonard's future, there is no clear path that helps the Celtics, even though it’s safe to say the odds of Leonard leaving will go up if the Raptors lose. Whether or not that would outweigh the benefits of Durant leaving Golden State for Boston is the bigger question. Either route could pose a bigger obstacle for Boston but Leonard remaining in Toronto over the long-term would be the more persistent one in the Eastern Conference year after year.

Series Prediction

The Raptors have a tougher defense than anything the Warriors have seen this postseason and will make them work harder than anyone. They also probably have the best player in the series with Leonard. Still, this is a new challenge for a well-oiled core in Golden State and I expected them to be rejuvenated by opening the series on the road and getting past a team that does not have LeBron James on it. Look for a back-and-forth affair if Durant is sidelined but the Warriors still ride their experience and shotmaking of Curry and Thompson to a victory.

Prediction: Warriors in 6.