Al Horford's choice looms large for Celtics' offseason

The dominoes of the Celtics' offseason have not started falling just yet, but when assessing any potential moves by Boston this summer, it’s always important to remember the philosophy of the man calling the shots.

For as long as Danny Ainge has been in charge, he’s hated letting assets walk away for nothing in free agency. The president of basketball operations has always been insistent on being preemptive with moves, avoiding the possibility of leaving a capped-out team empty-handed. That type of mentality is part of the reason Kendrick Perkins was traded away for Jeff Green and Nenad Kristic in February 2011 as the Celtics did not believe they would be able to retain the big man in free agency that summer.

Currently, the Celtics are left in a situation where for the first time in years, they are at risk of losing their top two players this summer without compensation. The team has little control over Kyrie Irving’s future based on the fact he will be able to command max money wherever he goes. They can try to sell him on reshaping the roster around him or the idea of redemption after a disappointing playoff run but he may have his sights on teaming with another star elsewhere regardless. The Celtics will do their best to communicate with him and start planning subsequent moves more if they get a sense of which way he is leaning.

While there is little doubt that Al Horford will be back in Boston next year if Irving returns, the more intriguing question at this point lies within what happens if the star point guard walks away. Horford has a $30.1 million player option he has to decide on by June 29th. If he declines it, Horford will hit unrestricted free agency, although the Celtics will maintain his Bird Rights, allowing Ainge to negotiate a longer deal with the 33-year-old for any amount up to the max.

The more pressing question for Horford though, a veteran who has made over $160 million in salary before taxes, is what exactly he is looking for over the remainder of his career? I asked him that question before the Celtics season came to a disappointing close.

“Ever since I came into the league, I always want to contend for a championship,” Horford told BostonSportsJournal.com. “As soon as I got to Boston,

especially this last couple of years, the last year we were right there. I haven’t won one yet and that’s kind of like where I want to start. That’s what I play for. I’m not playing for anything else but to win.”

That’s an understandable mentality for a player who has already played 12 seasons without a trip to the NBA Finals. The question the Celtics front office is going to have to piece together in the next few weeks is whether they can still sell Horford on the fact that this team can be morphed back into a contender in October even if Irving walks away.

Adding a piece like Anthony Davis (or another All-Star) at the draft could go a long way towards securing a verbal commitment from Horford on an extension before free agency begins, even with Irving’s future remaining unclear. At that point, the Celtics will at least be able to make a run with Davis, Horford, Gordon Hayward and whatever is left over from this current core after a big trade.

Perhaps such a move won’t be necessary. Horford has always spoken highly of the organization and it’s possible he likes the culture, coaching and young talent in Boston to the point that the added security of a long-term extension will be enough to convince him to stick around. The possibility remains that the Celtics will creep back towards the top of the East next year with him anyway if Kawhi Leonard leaves Toronto and Jimmy Butler or Tobias Harris head to New York or a Western Conference destination in free agency. Even so, taking down the Bucks without a big addition (and with no Irving) will probably be a tough sell to Horford.

The good news for Boston’s front office is that Horford has always been a great communicator and won’t leave them in the dark as July approaches. He bought into the Celtics vision once before in the summer of 2016 even after his Hawks beat the C’s in a playoff series. That was the right calculation by the big man for the immediate future but another crucial decision awaits as he heads toward the tail end of his prime. After a season full of disappointment, Horford will need to buy-in again to the front office’s vision or the risk is there for the Celtics to lose their best two players with nothing to show for it.

“I’ve enjoyed being here in Boston. Just have to wait and see what we’re going to do as a team,” Horford said after the Celtics lost Game 5 to the Bucks. “And it’s steps that the management is going to do moving forward, and continue to get better.”

It’s hard to justify giving up serious assets for a guy like Davis when he is a serious flight risk after one season. However, without an appealing backup plan, passing on that chance could cost a lot of talent. Whatever path the front office chooses, it’s important to make sure they find one that Horford thinks is worthy of contention.