Three crucial x-factors for the Celtics-Bucks series

The Celtics still have three days left to prepare for their second-round showdown with the Bucks, giving plenty of time for both coaching staffs to figure out the best areas to attack in the best-of-seven series. An intriguing chess match awaits Brad Stevens and Mike Budenholtzer and here’s a look at three critical x-factors that could help swing the series.

1. How healthy are Malcolm Brogdon and Tony Snell?

While the status of Marcus Smart looms large over the long-term prospects of the Celtics' postseason, it’s safe to say it will be a major surprise to see the point guard over the next 10-14 days based on his progression. Things are clearly going well but he looks a ways away from participating in an NBA playoff game, something that Dr. Jessica Flynn covered earlier this month for BSJ. The more pressing question for the Celtics now is what exactly is the status of two of the top guards on the Bucks roster: Tony Snell and Malcolm Brogdon.

We know that Snell will be active after he played garbage time minutes in the final two games of the Pistons series. He missed several weeks prior to the postseason with a sprained ankle. The 6-foot-7 wing was a mainstay in the Bucks rotation all year long, knocking down 39.7 percent of his 3s while providing needed defense against both guards and forwards. He’ll have a few more days here to ramp up to closer to full strength before Game 1 but his effectiveness will be an intriguing question for this series as Budenholtzer turned to Sterling Brown and Pat Connaughton plenty in his place with success over the last few weeks. Both of those guys are weaker shooters than Snell but given the question marks about the wing’s health, its possible that Snell is going to be out of the rotation to start the series.

Brogdon is the bigger variable, though, from Boston’s perspective. He’s been recovering from a torn plantar fascia for the past six weeks and is expected to return ‘at some point’ in Round 2 according to the Bucks. The fourth-year guard has been a Celtics killer in years past thanks to his handle, driving ability and 3-point shooting (42.6 percent). Brogdon and Snell are the most accurate 3-point shooters on the roster so defending the Bucks without them should get a little bit easier for the Celtics on the perimeter. Brogdon has given Boston’s bigger wings like Tatum and Brown fits at times, so his absence will make Milwaukee a bit more one dimensional until his return. If he’s not ready for the first two games in Milwaukee, that will be a huge opportunity for Boston to steal a game before the Bucks get back to 100 percent.

“It doesn’t change how they play, per se,” Brad Stevens said of Brogdon. “They still play in the same actions. They still do the same stuff. But it’s another guy that really floors it for them that you have to shrink the floor on his drives, that you have to be alert to taking it the length of the court in transition. Giannis is super special, as good as anybody in the league as going end to end, but Bledsoe and Brogdon are awfully good too. So you have to be great with that. It’s just another ballhandler for them. He’s a good player.”

2. Can the Celtics force Brook Lopez off the floor by going small with shooters?

It’s hard to take too much out of the individual matchups with the Bucks this regular season given how shorthanded the Celtics were in two of those three matchups. However, one constant in games which Al Horford played was his success against Lopez lineups. The Celtics outscored the Bucks by 28 points in the 44 minutes the two players shared the floor (Horford played in two of three games). Both of those matchups came down to the wire but that type of disparity is going to force Budenholtzer into some tough choices when it comes to one of his top defensive weapons.

The Celtics are almost certain to start small against the Bucks, to help defend against Lopez’s elite 3-point shooting on the perimeter but also to force Lopez to guard a strong 3-point shooter in Horford or a stretch four. Semi Ojeleye’s potential presence on the floor would give Lopez a place to hide (although Ojeleye’s speed advantage could make him a tough cover for Lopez). If Stevens wants to push maximum pressure on the Bucks though out of the gate, he’ll turn to a stronger offensive weapon in Morris or Hayward to start the game alongside Horford. That move puts five capable 3-point shooters on the floor to begin the game and could help carve up Milwaukee’s top-rated defense as Lopez struggles to defend the perimeter and drive against speedy weapons.

Antetokounmpo would also be put into a bit of a defensive mismatch if it’s Hayward out there alongside Horford (a lineup Stevens should break out plenty if he doesn’t use it to start). The Bucks don’t have a ton of great alternatives if Lopez gets played off the floor. Nikola Mirotic and Ersan Ilyasova will have the same closeout issues against Horford. DJ Wilson is a better option on defense but he gives less on the offensive end than all of the above. The trump card could be playing Antetokounmpo at the five but that’s a net win for Boston in forcing one of the Bucks best shooters off the floor in Lopez. The veteran center ranked fourth on the Bucks in minutes per game (28.7) so that’s going to be a situation to monitor all series long. If Boston’s 3-point shooting gets rolling, Stevens could force Budenholtzer’s hand early and expose a weak spot in the NBA’s best regular season defense.

3. How much of a role will Aron Baynes play in this series?

The veteran center was pivotal down the stretch of the regular season, stabilizing the Celtics defense by joining Horford in the frontcourt for the final few weeks of the year. The extra playing time was a nice warmup for his big role against a long Pacers front line in the first round but the roadmap to victory looks a lot different in year two.

While the Celtics will be considering ways to play Lopez off the floor, giving Baynes regular minutes won’t be a way to do that. His rim protection has been essential all year long and he can be a valuable weapon against Antetokounmpo in short stints, but Baynes’ presence on the floor could be an issue this series. Antetokounmpo’s athleticism will make it tough for Baynes to stick with him in transition and the center’s inability to close out on perimeter shooters reliably is a recipe for disaster against the Bucks contingent of shooters.

Stevens could opt to go small at center at times when Horford isn’t on the floor, simply playing Morris, Daniel Theis or Ojeleye in short stints at the five to better matchup with the shooting of Ilyasova, Lopez and Mirotic off the bench. Doing so, however, would leave the Celtics looking very vulnerable on the rim protection front without Horford. The Celtics tended to avoid not having one of Baynes and Horford on the floor all series against Indiana so moving away from Baynes would be a risk on the defensive end. However, if Stevens wanted to emphasize versatility and offense, it could very well be the smart play. One other x-factor? Baynes has the potential to make a big impact on the offensive glass in this series, something he did very effectively in last year’s postseason. Whether or not that advantage if strong enough to cover up his defensive drawbacks against shooters will be the question Stevens must answer.