The Celtics' new starting five against the Bucks should be...

Starting lineup changes at Game No. 76 of the regular season don’t happen often, but the choice by Brad Stevens to insert Aron Baynes into the starting five proved to be a stabilizing force for the Celtics during the stretch run of the regular season. Boston closed out the year with a 4-1 record when that group was intact, and stuck with the Baynes/Horford frontline on the way to four straight wins against the Pacers in the first round.

Stevens has never been one to mess with a formula that is working, but facing off with the Bucks, one of the best offenses and 3-point shooting teams in the NBA, will present a different kind of challenge than the Indiana Pacers. The Bucks have surrounded the likely-league-MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo with potent 3-point shooting at every position on the floor, a move that stretches opposing defenses to its core.

Baynes does a lot of things well on the defensive end but contesting 3s on the perimeter is not one of them. He was pulled from the starting five last postseason after four games against Milwaukee once Thon Maker starting knocking down 3s and a far more dangerous shooting weapon now lies in Milwaukee’s starting five with Brook Lopez. That alignment almost guarantees that Baynes will be moved into a bench role, which would help to cover up his weaknesses on that front.

The tougher question for Stevens and his staff over the next few days is who exactly is the right player to insert into the fold for Baynes? Compared to last year, the Celtics have far more talent to work with off the bench even with Marcus Smart sidelined with a sore oblique. What direction should the Celtics take heading into Game 1? Let’s break down the pros and cons of the candidates, some wildcard options and the favorite.



 

Semi Ojeleye

The second-year forward did not appear in the Pacers series beyond garbage time, but his track record against the Bucks speaks for itself. He provided a serious defensive boost last postseason in helping contain Antetokounmpo with single coverage, which allowed the Celtics to stay home on the Bucks shooters and grind out a first-round win. With more talent in the fold this year though, Ojeleye’s role has faded. Even with injuries piling up in head-to-head matchups with the Bucks this year, Ojeleye averaged just 18 minutes per game, but started two of those three contests.

Why he should start: While there is no one in the NBA who can stop Antetokounmpo, Ojeleye is probably the best role player in terms of slowing him down. He has the strength to combat Antetokounmpo in the post and moves his feet well enough to impact his drives, something that true bigs like Baynes struggle with. He’s also an all-around versatile defender, so he can handle wings like Khris Middleton or a big like Brook Lopez if he gets switched off of Antetokounmpo. While Horford will handle the bulk of the defense on Antetokounmpo, any time the Celtics can spare the risk of him getting into foul trouble or the wear and tear of battling the strength of the Greek Freak is pivotal. Ojeleye allows Stevens that luxury whenever he is on the floor, and given the fact that he’s not a crunch-time player on most nights, his foul trouble means less in the bigger scheme of things. If the Celtics want to play with a defense-first mindset to open this series, there’s probably no better option than Ojeleye on that front.

Why he shouldn’t start: While Ojeleye is likely to play in some form this series no matter what, the fact that he could not get on the floor over the likes of Hayward and Morris this season is telling in terms of where Ojeleye is as a player. For as good as he can be on the defensive end, his warts on offense can be just as problematic. He shot just 31.5 percent from 3-point range this year, which essentially gives the Bucks the ability to dare the Celtics to live-and-die with open Ojeleye 3s. The numbers say that’s not a smart bet, although Ojeleye is selective about when to fire. Ojeleye also rebounds like a shooting guard, something that could be problematic against the length of Antetokounmpo down low. The Celtics did a great job on the defensive glass without Ojeleye last round and they will need to maintain that against the Bucks.



Gordon Hayward

The former All-Star was one of the best Celtics in the series against the Pacers with his defense on Bojan Bogdanovic and breakout offensive performance in Game 4. Hayward has only been given spot starts due to injuries since getting pulled out of the starting five back in November, but from an overall play standpoint, he’s clearly one of the best five Celtics on the roster right now.

Why he should start: Offense was the biggest problem for the C’s in Round 1, and without a true ballhandler in the starting five to pair with Kyrie Irving against the Pacers’ pressure defense, the starts understandably ran into problems scoring the ball at times. Milwaukee’s defense is even better than Indiana’s when it comes to their rim protection and ability to avoid fouls, so moving Hayward into the fold here should help create more opportunities for Boston and take some pressure off Irving to handle the ball too much against Eric Bledsoe. Defensively, the Celtics could put Hayward on Lopez and effectively dare the Bucks to try to post him up, something that they haven’t done much of all year. It’s a risky ploy but could pull the Bucks out of their comfort zone. Offensively, the Celtics would also be incredibly tough to cover with five above-average 3-point shooters sharing the floor, something that would expose a big like Lopez on the perimeter. Hayward could also try to limit Khris Middleton more in the post, an area that he dominated the Celtics in throughout last postseason.

Why he shouldn’t start: Stevens doesn’t like to mess with a good thing, and Hayward has played well off the bench for a while now. Given the fact that the Celtics don’t want to lean too heavily on Terry Rozier to run the second-team offense (something that hasn’t worked well all year), moving Hayward into the starting five would mess with rotations. This could be managed around (Hayward getting an early rest after six minutes and coming back when Irving rests) but it will be up to Stevens to gauge whether that’s a better recipe for success. Playing Hayward early also puts him at risk of foul trouble, especially if he guards Lopez in the post. Given how crucial Hayward is and the fact that he’s going to be playing starter-level minutes anyway, protecting him against that kind of situation makes sense.



Marcus Morris

After a brutal second half of the season, in which he lost his starting job to Baynes, the veteran bounced back with a strong first-round series with the Pacers off the bench, including two big performances in Games 1 and 4. He has started one of two contests played against the Bucks this year and was injured for the team’s home loss against them in December.

Why he should start: If the Celtics want to stretch the Bucks out and still maintain Hayward as a ballhandler off the bench, Morris is easily the best option left on the table. His 3-point shooting ability all year long has been among the team leaders (37.5 percent) and he has appeared to come out of his shooting slump in Round 1, knocking down multiple 3s in three of the last four games. Morris isn’t the creator Hayward is, but he’s the better knockdown shooter and those looks should be plentiful for him against Milwaukee, especially with their collapsing defensive strategy. He and Horford could have the ability to play Lopez off the floor and help boost the Celtics offense after a disappointing first round on that end of the floor. Morris also provides a good defensive rebounder, which should help against the Bucks’ size up front.

Why he shouldn’t start: Morris is obviously a bit too shot-happy at times, and that’s a dangerous risk to take in the starting five. While Hayward provides more playmaking and ball movement and Ojeleye only shoots when wide open, Morris will be happy to get them up when he has a window, a risky gamble for Boston to start off games. Morris played solid defense against the Pacers but he is known for transition lapses, something that will be a huge point of emphasis against the Bucks and Antetokounmpo. He’s a far inferior defender on Antetokounmpo as well compared to Ojeleye and is weaker on closeouts as well than the alternatives.

WHO GETS THE NOD?

This is all going to come down to what Stevens thinks is the biggest priority against the Bucks. If it’s the defensive end, Ojeleye will get the nod. If he’s worried about scoring, Morris is the choice. I would not rule out Hayward starting in this series, but I think that’s an alternative that Stevens wants to keep in his back pocket as a potential adjustment as the series rolls on. For now, keeping him out of foul trouble and running the second unit is the safer play.