The Celtics have found a bit of rhythm heading into the 2019 postseason, in large part due to some reconfiguration of the team’s rotation puzzle. Aron Baynes has slid back into a starting role and has taken on a far bigger chunk of the minutes load (25 per game) since making the move, reducing reliance on Marcus Morris.
Dividing up playing time has been easier to manage in the wake of many injuries and rest days that have occurred over the past two weeks, but the assumption is that Brad Stevens will have a fully healthy roster ready to go when the playoffs kick off at the Garden next weekend. A year full of drama and disappointment now builds to this and the question remains as the stakes are raised: Who is going to play and how much?
Some of the choices are obvious and easy. Others depend on matchups and gut feelings from the head coach. With an incredibly challenging path to the NBA Finals along with the long-term implications of an early exit, every single move will matter this Spring. Here’s a look at how Stevens might maximize this group.
The Sure Things
Kyrie Irving: The All-Star has talked down about the regular season all year long, building himself up for this moment. The good news for Boston is that his offensive game is as potent as ever. He’s put up career-highs across the board and his unselfishness has been promising. He looks healthy and happy and those are both huge for his performances. He’s done his best work throughout his career during the postseason, but how heavily Stevens leans on him will likely depend on his defense. If he can bring it on that end, he’s going to be creeping towards 40 minutes per night. If he is getting picked on and making mistakes, Stevens will likely prioritize giving him extra rest instead of running him into the ground.
Minutes: 35-39 per game
Goes down if: Not playing solid defense.
Al Horford: The big man looks rejuvenated since Aron Baynes entered the starting five, freeing him of some grunt work responsibilities on offense to be more of a scorer and playmaker. The Celtics have thrived with him on the floor since the All-Star Break, so the only thing that Stevens will consider with Horford is ensuring he can maintain over a long postseason grind. 35-37 minutes per game is going to be the sweet spot, but look for the head coach to steal extra minutes on the bench for the four-time All-Star whenever possible (blowouts, hot streaks by bench bigs). His performance has faded by the time the Conference Finals roll around every year, but now that his biggest foil (Tristan Thompson) isn’t awaiting him in those spots, he will have a chance for redemption (if the C’s can get there).
Minutes: 35-37
Goes down if: Knees starting giving him trouble.
The Trusted Supporting Cast
Jayson Tatum: The second-year forward has probably sat more in crunch time this year than he did all of last season, but that trend has started to shift in the past couple of weeks. His attacking has improved on the offensive end and he looks a lot more engaged defensively. He’s still prone to giving up backdoor cuts but his length and anticipation have been a net positive for the C’s. Perhaps most importantly, the Celtics have fared better all year long when he’s on the floor. As long as he isn’t forced to chase crafty shooters on the perimeter and through screens (Bogdanovic, Middleton), he should be able to hold his own on defense. That and his offensive playmaking against playoff defenses make him a lock for bigger minutes.
Minutes: 30-32
Goes down if: Too many defensive lapses, poor shot selection
Gordon Hayward: It’s been a long road for the swingman toward his All-Star form, but he may have arrived just in time for the postseason run. The 28-year-old is shooting 55 percent from the field since the All-Star Break and has been able to give this team what it needs on a nightly basis (scoring or passing) consistently for a few weeks now. His in-between game has returned, he’s navigating the paint with confidence and most importantly he’s making the right play on both ends of the floor. It would not surprise me to see him in the starting five at some point of the postseason, but, for now, you can pencil him into crunch time and 30-plus minutes per night since his versatility on the defensive end makes him a great fit.
Minutes: 30-35
Goes down if: It won’t. Only physical concerns will sideline him.
Marcus Smart: The C’s defensive struggles in the past couple months have only strengthened his importance to this team for the playoffs. Stevens only has a couple of guys he can trust to chase around crafty scorers and make life hard for ballhandlers, and Smart tops the list. The biggest key for Boston, though, is his respectable shooting. Before the season started, one Celtics official emphasized that the biggest test for the C’s would be the ability to make defenses pay for leaving Smart open from the perimeter, something that didn’t happen last year (thanks to his thumb injury and poor shot selection). This time around, Smart has put together an above-average campaign from downtown (36 percent). With four potent offensive weapons on the floor around him, he’s going to get plenty of opportunities and has shown the ability to maximize them this year. Unless he falls into bad habits or hits a brutal shooting slump, he’s going to play a ton.
Minutes: 30-35
Goes down if: His offense is hurting the team consistently.
Can He Stay On The Floor?
Aron Baynes: The Celtics' defense has stabilized since his insertion into the starting lineup, essentially locking him down as the starter at center to begin the Pacers series. His size and rebounding will be crucial against an imposing Pacers front line and Domantas Sabonis’ inability to take 3s should help protect Baynes from getting exposed too much on the perimeter. The one thing for Stevens to worry about is Myles Turner and Thaddeus Young getting hot enough from 3 to punish Baynes’ late closeouts. However, neither of those guys are pure enough shooters for Stevens to consider giving up that lineup right away. Boston needs to solidify the defense the Pacers traditional bigs allow Baynes/Horford to play together. That may happen less in deeper series as 3-point shooting becomes a bigger worry (Brook Lopez, Pascal Siakam). For now, Stevens is going with what works. With his contributions on the offensive glass and his screening, having Baynes out there on offense isn’t exactly a drawback.
Minutes: 22-27
Goes up if: C’s are getting killed on the glass/starters are playing well together.
Goes down if: Pacer bigs are hitting 3s.
THE WILDCARD
Jaylen Brown: An interesting subplot to the C’s success during the past week has been the absence of the swingman due to back spasms. Tatum and Hayward have thrived with bigger shares of the minutes, but that doesn’t necessarily preclude Brown from getting his fair share when the postseason begins. The team will need his athleticism and defensive versatility, along with his aggressiveness going to the rim. He’s going to be in the mix for crunch time minutes over Tatum on nights when the 21-year-old forward can’t stick with quick wings, something we saw last Friday against the Pacers in Boston. The biggest x-factor with Brown comes down to defense. Will he avoid the mental lapses that have plagued him all year? Can he show fight going around screens and be in the right spots? If he is carrying his weight in those areas, his minutes will rise. Otherwise, he could be on a far shorter leash.
Minutes: 20-25
Goes up if: Hitting 3s, fully engaged on D.
Goes down if: Defensive lapses arise.
SET FOR A CUTDOWN
Marcus Morris: The veteran was back on Friday night following a one-game absence from a sore knee, and it was hard to ignore his impact on the game. He helped to shoot the Celtics out of a lead early (1-of-6 in first half) and the Celtics proceeded to go on 23-11 run to end the half when they went to a Horford/Theis front line to close out the second quarter.
After carrying the Celtics for the first three months of the year, Morris has been bad for about the same length of time now on both ends. He has taken away shots from more efficient options, and that has dragged down the offense at times. His physical limitations on defense are worrisome as well. Still, given the C’s lack of depth up front, Morris is going to get a chance every night. Stevens is going to have to make a choice pretty quickly about his offense though. As tempting as his potent 3-point shooting can be, poor shot selection and defense can give it all back quickly. I expect him to get a chance every night to see if he has it going, but his days of playing crunch time are by and large over. 15-20 minutes seems like a fair starting point and I wouldn’t be surprised if that trends downward as the postseason progresses.
Minutes: 15-20
Goes up if: He’s hitting 3s.
Goes down if: Taking bad shots, getting exposed on defense.
Terry Rozier: Like Morris, he’s going to get a chance every night in the postseason, but the leash will be tighter than ever. He’s going to have to assert his role with strong defense and smart decisionmaking on the offensive end. Having the ball in his hands less (with Smart, Irving or Hayward running the point) is probably the best way to achieve this. The most optimistic thing I can say about him in the midst of a disappointing campaign is that he’s played his best basketball of the year in the postseason for two years running. If he can transform back into the Rozier of two years ago (strong 3-point shooting, reduced usage, low turnovers, steady defense) he will have a chance to play 15-plus minutes per night. If not? There’s a real shot he falls out of the rotation entirely.
Minutes: 10-15
Goes up if: He’s playing smart and within his role.
Goes down if: He plays like he did during the regular season.
BREAK IN CASE OF EMERGENCY
Daniel Theis: I actually kind of like him as an option against the Pacers frontline, as long as he’s out there with Horford. As an active rebounder, strong passer and roller, he is better positioned to battle with the bigs than Morris. He’ll start out of the rotation but some struggles from Morris or foul trouble could change that quickly.
Will play if: C’s need to go double big, foul trouble.
Semi Ojeleye: He will play a big factor in any series against the Bucks, but it’s tough to see him getting much time against the Pacers. He’s too slow to chase their perimeter wings and too small to handle their big men down low on the glass. He might get shot at Tyreke Evans if no one else can prevent him from getting to the rim, but his time to shine comes next round.
Will play if: C’s defense starts showing serious cracks.
Brad Wanamaker: Only chance he plays is if someone becomes injured or if Rozier plays himself out of the rotation.
Will play if: Someone gets hurt or Rozier stinks.
Robert Williams: If C’s need to go double big and Theis is really struggling on defense, he may get a chance out there with Horford in a game for a couple of spot minutes. Would expect Stevens to go through other options first before turning to him.
Will play if: Someone gets hurt, or C’s need a spark in the frontline with others struggling.
Guerschon Yabusele: Would not expect him to be active on most nights. Will come down between him and Williams to see who Stevens trusts more at the end of the bench.
Projected minutes breakdown against Pacers
Irving: 37
Horford: 37
Tatum: 32
Hayward: 32
Smart: 32
Baynes: 25
Brown: 20
Morris: 15
Rozier: 10
Other NBA News and Notes
- No adjustment made for the 2019-20 salary cap projection of $109 million for next season by the league. However, the 2020-21 estimate was lowered by $2 million to $116 million. Those shifts should have no meaningful impact on the Celtics (since they aren’t projected to have cap room for several years), but it could result in a bigger tax bill for the C’s down the line.
- Weird to see the Sixers snag Greg Monroe for the end of their bench after his 10-day expired in Philadelphia. They already have a number of bigs with limited mobility (Amir Johnson, Boban Marjanovic) to choose from, so adding one more to the mix doesn’t seem like the best use of depth.
- Look for the Celtics to add a player to the 15-man roster ahead of the end of the regular season on Wednesday. Boston will want to maximize their injury depth heading into the postseason, so it would not surprise me to see them add a wing or a defensive minded big in case Baynes or Horford go down to injury at any point.
- Great to see local product Michael Carter-Williams make the most of his playing time in Orlando as the team signed him for the remainder of the regular season this week. The Hamilton native has played backup point guard over the past few weeks, which has helped them win eight of their past 10 games to solidify a likely playoff bid.