If Patriots' offseasons were movies, last year would be "The Shawshank Redemption" — Tom Brady as Andy Dufresne, who does the boss man's bidding for years until he's finally had enough, rebels by deciding to do things his way, and still comes out clean on the other side with a sixth Super Bowl title.
The Patriots' strange 2019 offseason would be "A Quiet Place" — a lot of people (players and coaches) have vanished, they're not being replaced and no one's really talking about it. But we'll have to see if the team survives (don't make a sound).
But while everyone is rightfully fixated on the current Patriots — is anyone going to play receiver, tight end or be on the coaching staff? — there's a looming situation coming in 2020.
"Armageddon"? .... maybe.
More like, "2020: A (Cap) Space Odyssey."
Ground control to Major Tom (Brady)...
Because as it stands right now -- and obviously things can and will change -- the Patriots are heading towards an offseason like no other under Bill Belichick. And that's saying something after the past two team-building periods: The most cap space ever. Multiple draft picks. Several starting spots up for grabs, with the possibility for more. The futures of the coach and quarterback...
First, a snapshot look at the 2020 situation and the reaction/takes from league executives. And then we'll break down the biggest factors, including the nuclear option:
- The Patriots have $85.877 million in cap space in 2020 — eighth-most in the league. But that's with just 31 players under contract.
- They have $75.677 million in what OverTheCap.com calls "effective cap space" — the maximum they'll have by signing cheap contracts to get to the top 51 number.
- Right now (and things can change depending on how 2018 and '19 draft picks fare) they don't have starters at: quarterback, both receiver spots, both tight end spots, left guard, nose tackle, right end, weakside linebacker, free safety, slot cornerback, kicker and punter.
- Among the free agents: Brady, Devin McCourty, Julian Edelman, Kyle Van Noy, Jonathan Jones, Josh Gordon, Joe Thuney and special team studs Matthew Slater, Brandon King, Nate Ebner and Ryan Allen.
- Dont'a Hightower, Marcus Cannon and Michael Bennett (after his restructure pushed his cap number in '20 to over $10 million when he'll turn 35) could all be cap casualties if the Patriots really wanted to push their cap space. Other possible cap casualties: Duron Harmon, Patrick Chung and Jason McCourty.
- The remaining team leaders would be, among others: Stephon Gilmore, Shaq Mason, David Andrews, Lawrence Guy, Harmon, Chung and Jason McCourty.
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Look, some of this stuff, like tanking for Lawrence, is way out there. We readily admit that. But the reality is this franchise is on course for a possible reset after this season — and it coincides with the possible end for Brady and/or Belichick.
The Patriots are on a path to have the most cap space they've ever had, and could clear more. They have a ton of draft capital accumulating. They have made little effort, to this point, to secure any of the future starting spots that could be up for grabs in 2020, which is unlike them — they normally give themselves plenty of options one or more years down the road.
The Patriots may still be on to 2019. But everyone should have an eye on 2020.