Examining the winding road to a necessary solution for the Celtics woes

When the Celtics paired up Al Horford and Aron Baynes last season in the frontcourt, it was done at first more out of necessity than from a strategic standpoint. The presumed starter at power forward in the fall of 2017 was Marcus Morris, who came into training camp late due to a legal situation. He was also slowed by a knee issue out of the gate as well. Ultimately, he missed the first couple weeks of the regular season to rest that knee, opening the door for Jayson Tatum to slide into a starting role with a strong preseason. Obviously, once Gordon Hayward went down on opening night, that left a giant hole in the starting five with no clear answer. Initially, Brad Stevens went small with Jaylen Brown starting in place with Hayward on the second night of the year.

After an 0-2 start, Baynes was slotted into the starting five, giving the Celtics defense a far bigger look than they had played with all year long. The team proceeded to put together 16 straight wins amid numerous injuries and obstacles on their way to a 55-27 campaign. Baynes started 67 of the 81 games in which he played and Boston went 45-22 in those matchups. Stevens brought the veteran center off the bench strategically, specifically against teams that had potent 3-point shooters at the 5. It was a mix and match system that paid dividends. When Baynes and Horford did play together, it worked. They played 863 minutes together over 65 games and ranked seventh in the NBA among all defensive pairings (minimum: 500 minutes).

When Baynes played more, the Celtics always seemed to play well too. They were 28-7 in the regular season when he was on the floor for 20 or more minutes and that success translated into the postseason as well (7-2 in 20-plus minutes). In a cruel twist, Baynes played just 19 minutes in the Game 7 loss to the Cavs at home. One can only wonder what would have had happened if Baynes was in the game to set a few more screens or grind out a couple of baskets with offensive rebounds around the rim in the 87-79 defeat.

As the 2018-19 season began, though, it was evident that Baynes took a back seat as Stevens again opted for a smaller lineup look. The Irving/Brown/Tatum/Hayward/Horford lineup stumbled to a 10-10 lineup out of the gate, weighed down more by their offense than defense. Still, while Baynes was healthy early in the year (played 25 of first 30 games), his role took a hit. Baynes averaged just 14 minutes per game through December 21st, his lowest number in five seasons, even as the Celtics stumbled in the standings out of the gate.

Perhaps more troubling though was the fact that the Horford/Baynes duo was all but abandoned early on.

That pair played just 38 minutes together in first three months of the year despite sharing the floor in 19 of the team's first 31 games. Even as adversity struck, Stevens stayed away from the pair with a proven track record from one year long.

Three months later, as the Celtics' defense has tanked (20th in NBA since February 1st), Stevens has finally opted at Game No. 74 to revisit more of the combo that helped propel this team to the Eastern Conference Finals last year. Amid the obsession with smallball around the NBA and emphasis on outside shooting, the value of rim protection and a constant presence was perhaps underrated in the eyes of Stevens. There's no doubting the impact of Baynes, as the Celtics have gone 9-1 this year as well whenever he has played 20 or more minutes. The only loss? Sunday against the Spurs without Horford.

When it comes to his value to the team, look no further than his best defensive teammates when measuring what he brings to the table.

“I just think that anything with Baynes works,” Horford said. “I’m out there, it’s great, but he does so much for us defensively. Protects the rim, just a very smart defender. You can literally put him out (with anyone) – whether it’s me, Morris, Guerschon, whatever – and I just feel like he makes our defense better.”

“Baynes is one of the best defenders I’ve ever seen, especially at the big position,” Marcus Smart added. “And Al is Al. He can do a plethora of things. You got those two guys back there manning down the back for you and can see everything and they’re back there protecting. It makes our job as guards a lot easier. They can tell us where we need to be.”

Incredibly, the Celtics offense has seen no dropoff in the 680 minutes Baynes has played this year, a surprise given his offensive limitations. However, his presence on the floor can translate into smarter offense for the C's. He is not out looking for his own shots (something that is a problem for this team). Instead, he's trying to free teammates up for open looks and using his size on the offensive glass to try to corral easy baskets. His presence can be a net positive from that standpoint, since it can mean less ill-advised shot attempts from the likes of Morris, Tatum or Rozier on any given night.

All of this isn't to say that Baynes should be starting next to Horford every game going forward, His defensive limitations guarding the perimeter are a liability at times and could perhaps keep him out of the starting five against the Pacers so he doesn't have to check Myles Turner (37 percent from 3) from downtown.

“The challenge of the league is guarding a lot of the spread teams,"  Stevens said. “Night in and night out it is a different challenge, so there are some lineups and some teams that you might play that against more, and some lineups that are really hard to play that against. But generally, I think (Baynes and Horford) both bring a real defensive DNA, and I think they’re very committed to doing whatever it takes to make it really hard to score on them. With their size and length, I think we have a different impact at the rim. But when you’re playing a team that’s super small and spread out, that’s tough to guard when you have a more traditional lineup.”

However, whenever an opponent plays with a traditional big without 3-point range, Baynes needs to be on the floor. That will be the case plenty against the Pacers with Domantas Sabonis coming off the bench at the five. The Pacers will play him together with Turner and Thaddeus Young a lot and in those instances, Baynes should man the middle for Boston, as well as see some time next to Horford whenever matchups allow for it.

The days of going small strictly for offensive purposes for Boston with guys that aren't Horford should be coming to an end as the postseason approaches since the Celtics aren't good enough on offense to make up for their deficiencies with Morris or another undersized forward manning the middle.

Stevens has been searching all year long for consistency with this group and it doesn't get more reliable than Baynes. As long as he's used in the right matchups to succeed, the Celtics will give themselves a chance next month, even if it's a few months overdue. To this point, he's played just 11 percent of the minutes (95) with Horford that he did last season. Injuries have obviously factored into that number but those two guys have been available to play together in 38 games this year, which makes that 95 number way too low.

The fact that Stevens seems committed to changing that is the best thing the Celtics have going for them right now heading into a crucial postseason.