Draft Watch: Changing attitudes about the Clippers pick, Grizzlies race tightens up

The Celtics are now guaranteed to have three first-round picks in the 2019 NBA Draft after the Clippers clinched a playoff spot on Tuesday night with a win over the Wolves. It’s been an incredible run for Doc Rivers and company, going 15-5 since dealing their best player (Tobias Harris) away at the trade deadline.

For much of the year, the logic from a Celtics perspective was simply to root for the Clippers to win to increase the chances of receiving a top-14 protected pick from Los Angeles this year, especially since the pick was projected to turn into a second-round pick in 2022 if it did not convey this year or next.

The Clippers’ surge has turned the tables on draft pick possibilities as they have easily dispatched everyone in their path amid an easy schedule in the past month. Instead of just squeaking into the postseason and picking in the teens, their current record is actually better than the Celtics at 45-30, which currently places them in the No. 22 spot in the draft.

The scary part for the Celtics? The Clippers still can jump a few teams in the standings in both conferences over their final seven games, with four teams within 2.5 games of them in the win-loss column. On the flip side, the Clippers are only two games or less ahead of four teams currently slotted in a 18-21, a crowded field which includes the Celtics.



What does this all mean? It’s time for Celtics fans to start rooting hard against the Clippers down the stretch, especially since the Clippers remaining schedule is not exactly murderer’s row.

Clippers remaining schedule

@ MIL
CLE
MEM
HOU
LAL
@ GSW
UTA

Analysis: The good news for Boston? All of the playoff teams on the docket should be playing for seeding still when they face the Clippers. A 4-3 finish is very much in play, but there should be some pretty clear gimme wins on the schedule between the Cavs, Lakers and Grizzlies at home. It’s technically the seventh-toughest schedule remaining in the league but it’s unclear whether the Jazz and Warriors will be resting or playing their guys on the final week of the regular season, which would change the degree of difficulty. Seeding should be up for grabs in the West up until the final night of the year though, so it's doubtful the Clippers will do much resting ahead of the playoff push themselves.

Given the fact that the pick could swing anywhere from 18-to-26 at this point, the Clippers’ finish could turn an average asset (mid first round pick) into an underwhelming one (end of first round pick). Given how much has gone against the Celtics this year when it comes to their future draft assets, this is one area where they could use some luck down the stretch.

Kings update (Current: No. 14)

Analysis: Sacramento is officially out of the playoffs and look pretty looked into the No. 14 slot in the lottery. A surging Hornets squad or the Heat could give the Kings an outside shot of dropping a slot or two down the stretch (to No. 12 or No. 13 in lottery) and a fairly tough schedule for the Kings (10th in NBA) make a .500 or under finish very possible. Currently, the Celtics would have just a two percent chance of jumping up to the No. 2-4 spots after the lottery with this pick. If Sacramento drops another spot though, that would jump to four percent and lock in the No. 13 pick otherwise. Overall, pretty low stakes from Boston’s perspective.

Grizzlies update (Current: No. 8, which would not convey)

Analysis: It has not been a good week on the Grizzlies pick front for Boston as the front office continues to prefer that this pick rolls over to next season. Memphis is not cooperating though as they beat another playoff team at home (Oklahoma City) on Monday night, while a couple of tanking teams hanging around the No. 8 spot lost some winnable games on Tuesday night with the Mavericks and Pelicans both losing at home. Those results have slid the Grizzlies back into the No. 8 slot in an essential tie with the Pelicans in the standings. We’ve projected for weeks that this race would come down to the wire and it continues to trend in that reaction.

Odds the Celtics receive the Grizzlies pick based on where Memphis finishes in final lottery standings (worst-to-best record)

No. 6: 3.8 percent

No. 7: 14.2 percent

No. 8: 39.2 percent

No. 9: 79.7 percent

No. 10: 86.1 percent

Games to watch on Wednesday:

Golden State at Memphis: Can the Grizzlies continue their strong play at home against playoff teams following wins over the Rockets and Thunder.

Washington at Phoenix: One of the few remaining opportunities for a win on the Wizards schedule. The Suns are in tanking mode as well but the Wizards will be coming off a back-to-back.

LA Lakers at Utah: Two straight wins has pulled the Lakers back up into the 10th spot, three games ahead of the Grizzlies in the standings.,