A look at a few trends of note over the 12 games the Celtics have played since the All-Star Break.
1. Jayson Tatum is shooting 23.3 percent from 3-point range: The 21-year-old forward shocked the NBA world last season by shooting over 43 percent from 3 during his rookie season. However, the Duke product has fallen back down to earth from the perimeter, knocking down just 36 percent of his attempts from beyond the arc in year two, despite a slight uptick in his attempts. The decline has largely been a result of a lengthy slump since the All-Star Break in which Tatum’s long-distance attempts are down (2.7) amid his tough stretch. The good news? Tatum is still shooting 46 percent from the field (above his season average) despite missing plenty from downtown, a sign that his finishing at the rim and midrange is trending sharply upwards. The Celtics are still playing well whenever Tatum is on the floor (+5.2 net rating in past 20 games) so good things happen for Boston usually whenever the emerging star is on the floor. Once he starts hitting from the perimeter again, the Celtics offense should hit a higher level.
2. The Celtics are allowing 108.7 points per 100 possessions: The Celtics are playing better as a team since their much talked about airplane ride out West, yet the team’s defense has collectively remained stuck in neutral since a sluggish start going out of the break. Over the team’s past 12 games, Boston ranks 20th in the NBA in defense and their splits are exactly the same on defense from the 1-5 start over the break and the 5-1 turnaround since the plane ride. The main difference for the C’s has been their offense over that run, which should make righting the defensive ship the main focus for Brad Stevens over the final 12 games of the regular season. Boston’s transition defense against athletic young teams has emerged as a constant issue but after being carved up by the likes of the Hawks and Clippers in the halfcourt as well, it’s looking more and more like the Celtics will have to go deep in the postseason on the strength of their offense rather than defense.
3. The starting lineup has a -10.4 net rating: Stevens has been adamant for a few weeks now the starting five has not been the problem for the C’s amid a 1-5 start after the break. While the team has turned things around since then, the starting five has not been a big reason why. In 138 minutes played over the past month, the starters have a -10.4 net rating, the worst mark on the team among any five-man lineup that has played over 10 minutes. The most consistent problems for that group has come on the defensive end with Marcus Morris getting torched regularly by opposing 4s while the C’s undersized frontline continues to show serious holes on the defensive glass. It’s unclear whether Stevens will be willing to make a switch with this group ahead of the playoffs but he certainly should be very flexible with making adjustments ahead of any playoff matchup since this group no longer resembles the unit that dug Boston out of a 10-10 hole to start the regular season.
4. Brad Wanamaker has played 12 minutes: The 29-year-old rookie came to Boston looking for a chance in the NBA but even as injuries have popped up over the last month, every player on the roster has seen more court time than the point guard. Wanamaker has played just 12 minutes in three games since the All-Star Break as Stevens has opted for bigger lineups (Semi Ojeleye, Aron Baynes) more instead of opting to space the floor with a strong shooter like Wanamaker (51 percent from 3) when pushed away from his usual mix in the rotation. With Stevens’ faith in Terry Rozier still unwavering despite his up-and-down season, the odds of Wanamaker making any sort of impact down the stretch seems slim unless injuries pile up in multiple spots in the backcourt. The journeyman guard has not been extremely impressive in his limited minutes all year long, but he’s been serviceable in the pick-and-roll and generally makes the right play without trying to do too much. One would think the Celtics could use more of that this year. Otherwise, this seems like a wasted roster spot.
5. Kyrie Irving is playing like an All-NBA player since the plane ride: The All-Star has been fantastic on the offensive end for the majority of the season but he’s raised his game to another level since a notable change in attitude on and off the floor at the start of the West Coast trip. Since then, Irving is averaging 27.3 ppg, 7.5 rpg, 9.3 apg while shooting 49 percent from the field. That type of production has made Irving a net positive on both ends of the floor and sparked the team to a 5-1 stretch despite some lackluster defense as a team.
“I mean I think the way he passes the ball, he’s been active on the glass offensive and defensive, and he’s obviously always going to go double-figures in scoring,” Brad Stevens said Saturday. “So, I mean, every night. He’s doing a lot for us, he’s really, really played well recently. He’s had a great year anyways, but I just think he is filling it up right now in every category and I think at the end of games people are paying so much attention to him he’s just getting rid of it, making the right play.”
If Irving plays at this kind of level in the postseason in bigger minutes, the Celtics are going to be a tough out in any round.
Other NBA News and Notes
- A big development for the East playoff picture came down on Saturday night as the Bucks announced starting guard Malcolm Brogdon would be sidelined for 6-8 weeks with a tear in his plantar fascia. That timetable will put his return sometime in the second round of the playoffs, exactly when the Celtics could be facing off with the Bucks in the second round matchup. The development should give Boston another reason to position themselves for the four seed in the East.
- Brandon Ingram is expected to make a full recovery after undergoing surgery on his right arm for a deep venous thrombosis. He should be sidelined for 3-4 months but his long-term prognosis is positive, which is good news for his career and also the Lakers front office in their attempts to shop him in trades this summer.
- A couple of other major injuries to backcourts in the Western Conference. Dante Exum could miss the remainder of the season for the Jazz with a torn patellar tendon while CJ McCollum suffered a left knee injury last night and will undergo an MRI today. Would hate to see both guys miss big postseasons for each of their respective teams.
- Massachusetts native Michael Carter-Williams landed a 10-day deal with the Magic as the team tries to bolster their point guard depth.
- Isaiah Thomas may have fallen out of the Nuggets rotation last week, an understandable move by head coach Mike Malone given the team’s struggles integrating him into their bench lineup. However, Malone should do right by Thomas and give him some meaningful minutes in the first half in his return to Boston on Monday night, his first action against the C’s since the trade on the parquet. Given what he has gone through in his career, he deserves that chance and in order to get a well-deserved ovation from the Garden crowd.