The recent shifting of the NBA lottery standings reminds me of a familiar saying about New England weather: Don’t like it? Just wait a minute.
Just one week ago the Memphis Grizzlies looked safely destined for a top-8 pick (barring lottery luck) for the 2019 NBA Draft, thanks to a miserable stretch that produced just six total wins in January and February combined (6-21 overall) for the franchise. Memphis had always wanted to get rid of their first-round pick obligation to the Celtics this season and finish far out of the bottom eight in the NBA, but injuries and ugly slumps looked poised to prevent that from happening. As recently as last week, the top-8 protected pick was set to carry over to 2020 as Memphis was firmly planted with the sixth-worst record in the NBA and a tough remaining schedule. The Memphis pick is one selection the Celtics would prefer to land later than 2019, according to team sources, due to the potential higher upside down the line. Here’s a reminder at the protections on that pick.
2019: Top-8 protected
2020: Top-6 protected
2021: No protection
Needless to say, a case can be made that the Celtics (or whatever team acquires this selection from them) would love this pick to arrive in 2021 given the lack of young building block-type players on the Grizzlies roster under contract for the future. Memphis has the potential to be a bottom-5 team for a couple of years going forward.
However, the tide has quickly turned in the standings over the past couple weeks after Memphis traded away a number of veteran pieces (Marc Gasol, JaMychal Green, Garrett Temple) for younger players (Avery Bradley, Delon Wright, Jonas Valancunias). Bradley (16.6 ppg) and Valancunias (18.5 ppg) have quietly started to fit in, playing some elite basketball again, which has allowed Memphis to sneak up the lottery standings with five unexpected wins in their last seven games.
The noteworthy part of those wins has been the competition it has come against for Memphis. The Grizzlies have played spoiler in three straight games against teams that are in the playoff race in both conferences (Portland, Utah, Orlando). More importantly from Boston’s perspective, they have played themselves back toward the No. 9 pick line in lottery standings, opening the door once again for the Celtics to have four first-round draft picks in 2019. The Clippers pick appears to be a lock in as well with them holding a 5.5 game lead over the Kings in the West playoff race with just 15 games left.
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So what exactly are the odds of Memphis finishing up the season on a high note and getting rid of their pick obligation now (a best-case scenario for the franchise)? Let’s examine a complicated blend of factors in play here to determine where the Grizzlies could end up.
1. The schedule:
2. Crowded standings:
There are seven different teams in the 6-12 spots in the lottery that are separated by just three games. Memphis is currently just 1.5 games out of the No. 9 spot, an indicator that an extra win here or there down the stretch could very well be the difference in whether the Grizz send their pick to Boston this year.
3. Who is tanking?
While the field is crowded in the 6-12 spots, there are plenty of different motives for the teams in those spots. Let’s take a look at what each team will (or won't) be playing for down the stretch.
6.Dallas (27-39)
Tanking motivation: High
Overview:
They owe a top-5 protected pick to the Hawks. They won’t finish in the bottom five, but every spot they rise in the standings will lower their odds of jumping into the top-4. In a top-heavy draft, they will want to maximize those chances of keeping the 2019 pick.
7. Memphis (28-40)
8. Washington (28-39)
Tanking motivation: Low for now
Overview:
The Wizards should be tanking but they are amazingly just 3.5 games out of the playoffs with 15 games to play. They are a long shot to close that gap, but they will be playing hard in the meantime until they fall out of contention.
9. New Orleans (30-39)
Tanking motivation: High
Overview:
The Pelicans have played well overall since the Anthony Davis trade demand, but they have started shutting down some key pieces (Jrue Holiday) due to injury. Given the state of their franchise, the more losing they can do right now to help jumpstart their looming rebuild after the AD trade, the better.
10. Charlotte (30-37)
Tanking motivation: Low
Overview:
This group will be going all out to make the postseason in the East and help their case to keep Kemba Walker this offseason.
11. LA Lakers (30-36)
Tanking motivation: High
Overview:
The Lakers have already lost five straight games and have shut down Lonzo Ball and Brandon Ingram for the season. With LeBron James on a minutes count and more assets needed to improve their trade capital for this offseason, plenty of losses down the stretch could be crucial in helping to improve their draft standing.
12. Orlando (31-37)
Tanking motivation: Low
Overview:
Just one game out of a playoff spot in the East with a lengthy postseason drought that they are trying to overcome. This group should be fighting hard to the finish.
Final thoughts
With three other tanking teams in the mix from the 6-12 spots (Dallas, New Orleans, LA Lakers), it’s entirely possible to see Memphis finish up in the No. 9 spot in the lottery, which would give Boston a 79.7 percent chance of receiving the pick this season. Here’s a closer look at the odds from each spot.
Odds the Celtics receive the Grizzlies pick based on where Memphis finishes in final lottery standings (worst-to-best record)
No. 6: 3.8 percent
No. 7: 14.2 percent
No. 8: 39.2 percent
No. 9: 79.7 percent
No. 10: 86.1 percent
The guess here is this race is going to come down to the wire after the Grizzlies surge. The Lakers (11th SOS) and Mavericks (13th SOS) do not have easy schedules down the stretch so it’s hard to envision either one of those squads mustering more than a few wins in the final 15. The Grizzlies won’t be favored to win a game later this month but they still have plenty of tanking squads (Dallas x 2, Phoenix) left on the schedule. If they find a way to win even 40 percent of their games the rest of the way, the Celtics could very well end up with four picks in 2019, a development that will add an extra layer of intrigue to the lottery, draft night and the potential pursuit of Anthony Davis this summer. A N0. 9 pick from the Grizzlies this year wouldn't be bad necessarily but an unprotected one in 2021 would look even better for asset purposes.
The most ideal scenario for Celtics fans? Rooting for the Pelicans, Mavericks, Wizards and even the Lakers down the stretch to help keep one of Boston’s most potential prized draft assets from having to be used before its upside is reached.
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