McAdam: Chris Sale's pending free agency represents tough call for Red Sox

FORT MYERS, Fla. -- Between next offseason and the one which follows, a half-dozen of the Red Sox' most important players will qualify for free agency.

Some are foundational, in-their-prime players at key positions, such as Mookie Betts and Xander Bogaerts, whom the Red Sox must do their best to retain. Some are worth retaining if a reasonable contract can be agreed upon, such as Rick Porcello and Jackie Bradley Jr.

And then there's Chris Sale.

Sale has been the Red Sox' best starting pitcher in each of his first two seasons with the Red Sox. In 59 starts, he's 29-12 (.707) with a 2.56 ERA. He's averaged 13.2 strikeouts per nine innings with a .924 WHIP.

On the face of it, that would seem to make the decision to re-sign Sale a simple one. After all, who wouldn't want to retain one of the top two or three starting pitchers in the game?

But it's more complicated than that. Two days after he presumably takes the ball for the Red Sox season opener in Seattle next month, Sale will turn 30, a demarcation point of sorts for starting pitchers. And if Sale's advancing age isn't worrisome enough, there's the matter of his durability. In both seasons with the Red Sox, Sale's performance has declined in the last two months of the season. Last year, he pitched just 17 innings after July 27, sidelined by what the Sox termed "mild shoulder inflammation.''

Historically, the Red Sox have been spooked by the prospect of big contractual commitments to pitchers in their 30s. The team famously low-balled Jon Lester in the spring of his final year in Boston, then traded him at the July non-waiver deadline when it fell out of contention. The Sox later made a bid to sign him in free agency, but fell well short of the offers made by both the San Francisco Giants and Chicago Cubs.

Desperate for someone to anchor a staff without an ace, the team took the unusual step of signing David Price -- then 30 — to what was, at the time, the biggest contract ever given to a free-agent starter. The move has brought mixed results.

Sale's achievements are considerable. He's finished in the Top 5 in Cy Young Award voting in each of the last six seasons, a testament to his dominance and consistency.

But despite the organization's painstaking efforts to preserve him over the long regular season, Sale has faltered down the stretch. Before last summer's shoulder issues limited him in the final two months and into the postseason, he pitched poorly in August and September in 2017 (4.09 ERA) and was shelled in his only playoff start in the Division Series.

Despite their best efforts to develop a program designed to keep him healthy and reduce wear-and-tear, Sale wasn't much of a contributor after the All-Star break.

All 30-something pitchers carry an element of risk, but in Sale's case, he's demonstrated a distressing habit of breaking down -- or least seeing his performance dip -- even before he hits that milestone. Committing a nine-figure payment over five or more years would constitute a significant gamble on the part of the Red Sox.

Letting Sale walk, of course, carries with its own obvious risks. The Red Sox don't have anyone in their farm system who projects as a front-of-the-rotation starter for 2020. And if they're without a true No. 1 starter, they have only two options: bundle together their two (or three) best prospects to trade for one, which is how they obtained Sale in the first place; or, spend top dollar on another free agent starter, a path that has its own potential pitfalls.

For his part, Sale addressed his upcoming free agency Wednesday and maintained that it would not pose as a distraction for him.

"The team's where they're going to be,'' said Sale, "and I have people in place with my agency to take care of all that. I've been very lucky throughout my career to never have to worry about that. I got drafted and two a half years later, I signed an extension with Chicago, so I never really had that moment in time where (I was facing) the anxiety of free agency. I've always just been under contract and gone out there and played.

"So for me, that's just kind of the same thing I'm going to do. I can't worry about dollars and cents, or years or contracts, all that other stuff, because I never have. I think that's helped me be successful. I've never had to worry about the nuts and bolts. That helps me -- the less I have to worry about all the riff-raff, the better off I am. All that's going to take care of itself.''

And, he made it clear that, all things being equal, he would prefer to remain in a Red Sox uniform.

"I would love to,'' said Sale. "I've said that since after my first year. This is a special place, this is a special group of people, a very special city and an unbelievable fan base. Not to mention that we've got a hell of a team and we're going to have that team for a few years to come.

"It's a good place for me. It's a good spot. I love playing here. I'd love to keep playing here. We'll see how it works out. ... If it works, it works. If it doesn't, it's been a blast.''

In the meantime, the Red Sox have a tough decision to make, with plenty at stake -- in every sense of the word.