Hot Stove Lunch: Forecast model sees Red Sox taking a step back in 2019

Take this for what it's worth, but one well-respected forecasting model expects the Red Sox to suffer a significant drop-off in 2019.

Last year, of course, the Red Sox set a franchise record with 108 regular season wins, then lost just three times in the postseason en route to a World Series win.

But Baseball Prospectus, through its PECOTA (Player empirical comparison and optimization test algorithm) system, projects that the Sox will dip to 90 wins, good for second place in the AL East behind the 96-win New York Yankees.

That would be enough for the Sox to grab one of the two AL wild-card spots, but not enough for them to win their fourth straight AL East title.

The PECOTA system has the Red Sox offense dropping off considerably, projected to score 769 runs after plating 876 runs. A loss of almost 100 runs is considerable, especially when the Sox are planning to return the exact same everyday lineup as last year.

As for the pitching, they expect a dip there, too. Last year, the Sox allowed 647; the model predicts that they will give up 769. That projection, at least, is more understandable, given the losses suffered by the bullpen. (PECOTA forecasts Matt Barnes as the team's closer and envisions a 2.50 with 25 saves).

How accurate have these models been in the past? Well, it's worth noting that PECOTA had the Sox slated for just 88 wins in 2018. In reality, they beat that number by 20.

Elsewhere...

AL EAST 

Hal Steinbrenner defends the Yankees' spending habits.

There are plenty of job openings in the Orioles' bullpen.

The Rays are bringing back some throwback uniforms.

The Jays will take a look at Devon Travis in the outfield.

AL CENTRAL 

Matt Joyce signed a minor league deal with the Indians.

A look at the future of the Tigers' starting rotation.

What you need to know about the White Sox' spring training.

The Royals could use someone like free agent Marwin Gonzalez.

AL WEST 

The Astros are without two important starting pitchers.

Hunter Pence is returning home to play for the Rangers.

For the first time in a long time, a season begins for the Angels without Mike Scioscia.

The Mariners might be able to extend Mitch Haniger 

A's draft pick Kyler Murray is one step closer to the NFL

HOT TAKE I MAY SOON REGRET

Is it possible to be a Hall of Famer and still be underrated, overlooked and underappreciated?

That's what I was thinking Thursday afternoon when word broke that Frank Robinson had passed away at 83.

Robinson was a magnificent player and towering figure in the game and was elected on his first try to Cooperstown in 1982 and was hailed as one the most competitive and complete players of the modern era.

When he retired, his 586 career homers ranked fourth all time. He was the first player to win MVPs in both leagues and he captured the Triple Crown in 1966 with Baltimore. Later, he went on to become the first African-American manager in the game's history.

But somehow, Robinson was left off baseball's All-Century team in 1999. Robinson belonged with Willie Mays, Hank Aaron, Stan Musial and Mickey Mantle -- all contemporaries of his -- but was somehow excluded. That was a huge oversight.

Robinson was fiercely proud and was notorious for crowding the plate, almost daring pitchers to hit him. (Getting hit, he once said, had the effect of making him more determined). He served baseball well, not only as a player, but later as a manager (and a player-manager at that) and executive.

And yet, I couldn't help but feel Thursday that he didn't get the recognition he was due.