Bedard's Pick: Can the Patriots cap their run with another title that echoes their first?

ATLANTA — There's a beautiful symmetry to the fact the Patriots are facing the Rams in Super Bowl LIII.

Seventeen years ago, this whole tremendous run by the Patriots started with an Adam Vinatieri kick to beat the St. Louis Rams in a dome — now known as the Mercedes-Benz Superdome — in Super Bowl XXXVI.

So many wins -- and four more championships later -- New England will look to bookend its first title facing the Rams about 450 miles north in Mercedes-Benz Stadium.

Oh so much has changed in that nearly two decades. But what hasn't been altered — Bill Belichick, Tom Brady and Robert Kraft — is the foundation of one of the greatest runs in the history of professional sports.

Will that run continue with, perhaps, one last title? Or will the Patriots go back to Foxborough with a second straight stunning loss to an NFC upstart?

Let's dig into what we think will be the important factors in this matchup, and then we'll give our prediction.

THE COACHESBelichick, 66, needs no introductions. He's certainly the greatest living NFL coach, and arguably the best of all-time.

At 33, Sean McVay will become the youngest coach in Super Bowl history. He's known as a boy wonder of offense, but that storyline severely underrates McVay.

In many ways, Belichick and McVay are very much alike -- extremely smart visionaries with an uncanny knowledge of the game. McVay may call the offensive plays, but he's heavily involved in all the in-game adjustments and gameplanning. Both are disciplined and will have the keys to success boiled down to a few points on each side of the ball.

McVay will have a tailored gameplan for the Patriots, and will have surprises up his sleeve on both sides of the ball to start the game. He will make changes, if need be, on the fly. The Rams do not "do what they do." They have the ability and agility to change course quickly.

Belichick, with trusted offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels at his side, will take away what the Rams do best at key junctures. On offense, they will exploit weaknesses from the start and will look to play with a lead. No one is better at in-game adjustments than the Patriots.

If McVay has a weakness, it's in game management. He has made mistakes in key spots and the pressure of the Super Bowl will only exacerbate any missteps. Belichick will be ready to pounce if that happens.

WHEN THE PATRIOTS HAVE THE BALL

The Patriots have used their dominant offensive line to punish smaller fronts in their two playoff victories and, by playing from ahead almost immediately, have played both games on their terms. The Rams will be trying very hard to make the Patriots uncomfortable.

The success of the New England offense could come down to one player: Rams nose tackle Ndamukong Suh. The Patriots will not allow Aaron Donald to wreck the game, which should allow for some one-on-one matchups between Suh and the Patriots' excellent interior offensive line. If Suh controls the middle like he did against the Saints, the Patriots will be in trouble.

But I don't expect that to happen. I think the Patriots will largely surrender the middle of the line and live from the numbers on the field to the sidelines with both their running and passing game. New England may try some tempo in the game, because the goal in the early going will be to frustrate and tire Suh and Donald by having them run sideline to sideline. Expect a heavy dose of jet sweeps, screens and zone and power runs to the outside. This is where Rob Gronkowski will shine. The Rams like to give cushion in coverage, so quick and short passes will be on the menu. The Patriots want to run as many plays as possible. Making Donald and Suh play at least 75 plays will be the goal.

New England must stay ahead of the sticks and make third down more manageable. Expect Brady to get rid of the ball quickly. If Brady is forced to hold the ball in the early going — and that could happen if coordinator Wade Phillips has one of his trademark tweaks — and takes a hit, the Patriots could be in danger of falling behind early. Don't be surprised if the Rams take an early lead and hold it at halftime.

WHEN THE RAMS HAVE THE BALL

Los Angeles has an overrated offensive line. It's solid, but far from great and lacks athleticism. Left tackle Andrew Whitworth and left guard Roger Saffold are good players. Right tackle Rob Havenstein is decent. Center John Sullivan and right guard Austin Blythe are below average and slow of foot. Expect the Patriots to constantly pepper the A gap between those two against the run and the pass. They can disrupt the outside zone running plays and pressure Jared Goff this way.

It's mandatory the Patriots get pressure on Goff. A repeat of last year's Super Bowl, when New England only pressured Nick Foles on 25 percent of his dropbacks, is a recipe for another loss. If rushed, Goff will get sloppy with his footwork and throw floaters. Kyle Van Noy or Trey Flowers need to get a shot on Goff early to set the tone. The Rams have too many varied targets to have to play coverage. They don't have any dominant weapons -- just a deep group where anyone can and will make a big play.

I expect the Patriots to focus on controlling the outside zone and forcing runs inside. On key downs, Stephon Gilmore will cover Robert Woods. They'll cap Brandin Cooks with a safety. Big receiver Josh Reynolds has a chance to wreck the gameplan. Expect J.C. Jackson to do battle with him. Patrick Chung would make sense on Todd Gurley out of the backfield. If the Patriots match a linebacker and Gurley has his head screwed on straight, he could win the game through the air.

INTANGIBLES

In many ways, this game is a referendum on two starkly different organizational philosophies.

The Rams have stocked their team with talent. Despite it being a potentially toxic mix of egos and mercenaries, to his credit, McVay has made it all work. Still, the Rams seem to lack a fundamental consistency in effort and carrying out assignments, especially on defense. But, boy, are they talented when all are on the same page.

The Patriots have largely eschewed big money and big egos. They are, like their 2001 forefathers, the ultimate team. And the sum of their smarts, toughness and experience outpaces their talent. But because they are not as talented as in the past, they will make the occasional mistake, even Brady. Their margin for error is much less than it was even a year ago.

So which approach will win out?

THE PICK

It's very difficult to win on this stage without a complete buy-in and an uncanny discipline. The Rams have too many pieces that could melt under the spotlight of this game, especially if the Patriots either coming storming out of the games or back into the game after a deficit: Suh, Dante Fowler, Mark Barron, Marcus Peters, Aqib Talib and Todd Gurley.

I also have a hard time seeing this collection of Patriots players — who have not been given the credit the first dynasty team did — losing two Super Bowls in a row. Even if they fall behind, the game will be still very much in their reach. They've done it time and time again.

And then there's just the poetry of the whole thing. What better way to cap things off — and no one is saying they'll be done — than a win over the Rams, indoors, with a team of unheralded players in front their own supporters, who will dominate Mercedes-Benz Stadium?

It just feels like, 17 years later, this is their time again. It just seems like the perfect way to bookend an amazing run.

And there just might be a field goal with no time left win it again.

Patriots 30, Rams 27