The Celtics and Warriors can almost always be counted on for memorable matchups and few teams in the NBA have played Golden State tougher over the past three seasons than Boston (3-3 overall).
The dynamics of this head-to-head battle have changed over the past year though with DeMarcus Cousins entering the fold as a key weapon for the Warriors. How exactly does he impact this battle on both ends of the floor and could his presence end up being a net positive for Boston?
Let's look at the dynamics at play as the hottest team in the league (nine-game winning streak) comes to town to try to end the C's 10-game run of victories at the TD Garden on Saturday night.
Warriors on Offense
117.2 points scored per 100 possessions (1st)
Pace: 100.5 possessions/game (10th)
Four factors
eFG%: .562 (1)
TOV rate: 12.2% (17)
OReb rate: 23.2% (15)
FT/FGA rate: .196 (17)
Celtics on defense
106.1 points allowed per 100 possessions (5th)
Four factors
eFG%: .505 (3)
TOV rate: 13.7% (5)
DReb rate: 77.2% (14)
FT/FGA rate: .206 (19)
What to watch for when the Warriors have the ball:
How do the Celtics handle Boogie? The surprise summer acquisition for the defending champions made his season debut last weekend and now has three games in the books. He’s still on a bit of a minutes limit (played a season-high 24 in Washington on Wednesday night), but the offensive numbers have been surprisingly stellar so far for the former All-Star (13 ppg, 7.0 rpg 46% FG, 57% 3pt).
The Celtics have always been well-positioned to defend Cousins in past seasons with Al Horford and Aron Baynes, but doing so while trying to contain four All-Stars players around Cousins is a different beast. Doubling will need to happen strategically, otherwise, the Warriors will make the Celtics pay with the open jumper. Switching on the pick-and-roll will also become a risky endeavor since Cousins will be able to bully his way to the hoop on switches. Still, the presence of the big man in this game may not be a net positive for the Warriors. He has not faced an above-average defense yet, and despite a strong shooting start, he has struggled to finish at the rim (57 percent) early on.
I’d expect Baynes to have his minutes matched up with him to try to keep him off the offensive glass but I’d expect the Celtics to try to lure the Warriors into throwing the ball into him in the post plenty. That’s a low percentage option against Horford/Baynes compared to the other scoring pieces the Warriors have at their disposal. The C’s will need to work hard though to keep Cousins and other athletic bench bigs and wings (Kevon Looney, Alfonzo McKinnie) off the offensive glass. There will be plenty of cross-matching, but Boston can’t afford to give the Warriors any second chances.
Can the Celtics take advantage of Draymond Green’s flaw? The versatile power forward has played better of late, but his dropoff in play over the season as a whole has been a huge factor in Golden State’s lackluster start to the season. Green’s 3-point shooting has continued to decline (26 percent), but the more glaring issue for Golden State has been his turnover rate (26 percent) which is easily the worst in the league for a high-volume player. He takes a lot of foolish chances and that should feed right into Boston’s hands as one of the best teams in the league at forcing turnovers.
You can bet Brad Stevens will be happy to sag off Green on the perimeter to send support towards the likes of Kevin Durant, Steph Curry and Klay Thompson, but Green is still a playmaker. He has also cleaned up his turnover rate (only 11 percent) during the team’s nine-game winning streak. Still, this is the flaw that the C’s have been able to take advantage of in each of their three wins over the Warriors during the past three seasons. That trend will need to continue tonight for them to have a chance.
What poison will Brad Stevens pick? The Warriors’ scoring pace has been an absolute joke in the midst of their nine-game winning streak. Golden State is shooting 52 percent overall, 41 percent from 3 and averaging 130.5 points per game. Steph Curry is attempting 13.4 3s per game during their winning streak and knocking down 41 percent of them. Klay Thompson is hitting almost 50 percent of his 3s in that stretch as well. Durant has added 25 points per game on 54 percent shooting. It’s a dynamic three-headed monster right now that allows the Warriors to punish teams when they try to guard the perimeter tightly (second most accurate team in the league when shooting 2s). The Wizards tried to do just that on Thursday night and were still burned for 126 points. Golden State is going to take what they give you on any night so it’s going to be interesting to see what Stevens elects to prioritize taking away.
Marcus Smart will likely earn the assignment chasing around Thompson while Marcus Morris has fared respectably in trying to contain Durant from breakout games. Irving has been an improved defender this year, but he’s going to have to play with discipline against Curry to avoid allowing easy hoops. The Warriors are going to score plenty, the Celtics just can’t make it easy. The Garden crowd will likely fuel Boston’s energy all night, but the guess here is that the C’s take away the easy looks inside and pray that Curry, Thompson and Durant won’t keep shooting that well against better contests. This will be a big test for Horford as well, who has struggled to step up in switches against crafty guards on the perimeter all year. Boston won’t be able to afford him being a step slow on Saturday.
Celtics on offense
112.6 points scored per 100 possessions (5)
Pace: 98.8 possessions/game (19)
Four factors
eFG%: .514 (8)
TOV rate: 11.1% (4)
OReb rate: 22.4% (18)
FT/FGA rate: .177 (28)
Warriors on defense
107.8 points allowed per 100 possessions (16)
Four factors
eFG%: .514 (10)
TOV rate: 11.1% (27)
DReb rate: 78.2% (6)
FT/FGA rate: .210 (21)
What to watch for when the Celtics have the ball:
Taking advantage of Boogie: The flip side of all the advantages that Cousins gives the Warriors on the offensive end could very well come back to haunt them on the other side of the floor. Cousins has been foul-prone (averaging four in just 20 minutes per game) since his return as he struggles with adjusting back to NBA basketball at full speed. The center routinely found himself in foul trouble before his Achilles tear but now has a mobility issue to go along with his tendencies to create contact.
The Celtics need to take advantage of this weakness whenever Cousins is on the floor on Saturday night by forcing him into switches and dragging him out of the paint to contest 3s against speedier players. The Warriors as a whole have been particularly foul-prone with their bench players all year (Looney, McKinnie) so that will be a prime opportunity for Jaylen Brown and Tatum to get aggressive in the interior since none of those guys are true rim protectors. This will be a big night for Horford though. He needs to be able to stretch the floor from downtown and punish Cousins for slow closeouts. If he doesn’t, it could throw the Warriors defense into turmoil.
Letting it fly from downtown: The Warriors certainly have the ability to ratchet up their defense given their personnel, but their offense has not required them to lock in much on the defensive end all year long. As a whole, that has produced an average defensive rating and spotty defense on the perimeter. Only three teams allow opponents to shoot more 3s per game than the Warriors this year and that number should only go up in the coming weeks once Cousins starts to play more minutes. The Warriors defend the 3-ball at a decent clip (34.9 percent is 13th overall) but this is definitely an area the C’s can take advantage of in the friendly confines of the TD Garden. The Celtics are a top-6 team in both making and attempting 3s, and I’d expect them to try to challenge season-highs in both of those departments in order to keep pace with the Warriors’ firepower in this game.
Will bench players show up with aggression? The Warriors likely won’t play a full bench unit much in this game, but they will send out the likes of Shaun Livingston, Andre Iguodala and Looney. Old friend Jonas Jerebko (birth of a child) is away from the team so that group will lack a lot of perimeter spacing on offense. The Celtics will have the younger more energetic personnel here in Jaylen Brown and Terry Rozier, while Gordon Hayward will be a good matchup for Iguodala.
Given the strong advantage the Warriors have in the starting five, the C’s can’t afford to lose the head-to-head battle with the bench on the offensive end. Brown, Rozier and Hayward have to take high percentage looks within the flow of the offense in order to give the hosts a chance. All of these guys have played far better at the Garden all year long than on the road (a big factor in the team’s poor road record). That will need to be the case on Saturday night for the C’s to pull off the upset.
What needs to happen for the Celtics to win:
- Dominate turnover battle
- Try to force someone other than Durant/Curry/Thompson to beat you
- Punish Cousins on the defensive end
- Let it fly from downtown
