The complicated future of Terry Rozier as a Celtic

Before the start of the regular season, it remained unclear which one of Terry Rozier or Marcus Smart would be more likely to be around for the long haul with the Celtics.

Rozier was viewed more favorably around the league heading into this fall, coming off a superb postseason in which he averaged over 16.5 points per game while filling in for Kyrie Irving at the starting point guard spot. The adjustment back to the bench has not been pretty for Rozier for the majority of the 2018-19 campaign though. His offensive production has dipped across the board and the C's success with him on the court has slipped as well. Meanwhile, his former bench partner Marcus Smart has won a starting spot and carved himself as an indisposable piece at both ends of the floor for Brad Stevens thanks to his versatile defense, ball distribution and improved 3-point shooting.

Still, on a night where the Celtics need offense, Rozier provided a glimpse yet again of what he can do in an expanded role. He scored 22 of his season-high 26 points in the first half on Wednesday night while also adding a team-high eight rebounds and six assists, essentially doing it all to keep Boston afloat amid an ugly offensive start on their way to a 123-103 blowout win.

The Rozier starter phenomenon is what will make his looming restricted free agency fascinating to watch this summer from Boston's and a league-wide perspective. In six starts this season, Rozier has been superb, averaging 14.8 ppg, 5.5 rpg and 5.3 apg while shooting 42 percent from 3-point range. He's been an elite player when handed a bigger role and he credits a lot of that to Kyrie Irving, who informed him Wednesday morning that it would be his time to shine.

"Kyrie tells me that he’s out," Rozier said. "He texts me early in the morning just about every game that he’s out just so I can get mentally prepared, and he’s been good with that. He’s been a good mentor all year since we’ve been together, and he’s giving me that confidence early in the day."

Despite these strong glimpses of his potential while starting, Rozier has very little to improve his free agency stock on the whole, thanks to his lackluster bench play (7 ppg on 37 percent shooting from the field) which may very well create an interesting conundrum for the Celtics this summer. On the one hand, Rozier's rough season could put him in a tough spot on the restricted free agency market with so many mid-tier point guards hitting the market after signing short-term deals last summer. There are few teams out there that would likely consider Rozier as an upgrade for their starting point guard and no guarantee that any would want to throw big money at a 24-year-old who has regressed in his fourth season. The Celtics could try to bring him back at a reduced price in this scenario, perhaps at an annual number similar or even lower than Smart's $48-million pact over four years that was signed in July, far short of the money he was shooting for back in the fall during extension talks.

However, if Rozier is not going to be in a starting role in Boston, can the Celtics really justify spending that kind of cash on the underwhelming bench version of Terry (36 percent shooting over 42 games) that we've seen all year long?

Stevens has resorted to having Smart and Irving on the floor with him as much as possible when the rotation is healthy since Boston's second unit offense just is not running smoothly on a lot of nights with him at the helm. Paying him more than mid-level money for that type of production does not seem like an ideal investment.

Still, when you factor in the looming Anthony Davis pursuit, it might be a necessary one to keep the bench with proper depth. The Celtics aren't going to be able to acquire Davis without matching his $27 million in salary and there are only a few ways to do that with the team's current personnel. One of the easiest routes would be to move Smart and his $13-million salary as a key chunk of salary in the package. If that happens, retaining Rozier would suddenly become a bigger priority for Boston given the hole that would leave in the backcourt.

Including Rozier as a sign-and-trade piece in the summer in such a package remains trickier than Smart due to base year compensation rules, which are too complicated to go into detail on here. The Pelicans might also just prefer Smart over Rozier as part of any potential package, a very realistic scenario given how the duo has played this year.

This possibility is probably part of the reason the Celtics have remained so committed to Rozier this season in spite of his lackluster play. They clearly know that he can play better than he's been showing (to his credit, he's been better in three of his last four games now) and a positive relationship needs to be maintained there for the long haul to keep him open to staying long-term in Boston, if needed. Brad Wanamaker (11 points, plus-24 in the win) has been better at times off the bench than Rozier this year in limited opportunities, but Stevens acknowledged on Wednesday night that he has given no real consideration to giving him run over Rozier when everyone is healthy.

"Really hard to do that with our lineup being what it is," Stevens explained. "I think that as much as you can, you want to try to get guys their regular minutes unless it’s a unique game or unique circumstance. They’re already in a position where they’re getting less, so I think it’s really important that when Terry Rozier’s coming off the bench that he gets as many of those minutes as possible."

For better or worse, the Celtics look committed to Rozier for the rest of the way and perhaps even longer depending on how the dominoes fall over the next six months. Whether he can reward them for that faith remains to be seen, but this group will need a few more performances like we saw on Wednesday night in the second half of the season to prove himself as a worthy investment to Boston or any other team.