If it wasn't apparent against the Chargers -- when the Patriots took Los Angeles' six, seven and eight defensive back alignments and shoved it down their throats for 47 carries and 177 rushing yards -- it became crystal clear after Sunday's AFC Championship game:
Patriots opponents, and there's only one left in the Rams, better match up better with personnel. Or they risk getting run over.
There's been a lot of discussion this season about the Patriots' running game, its origins, and the reasons for the success. Is it Sony Michel? Is it the offensive line? Is it Dante Scarnecchia? Is it Josh McDaniels? Is it the threat of Tom Brady?
To be honest, it's a mixture of everything. Michel has been a good player, but the Patriots had more rushing yards in 2013 (Steven Ridley, LeGarrette Blount), '12 (Ridley) and '08 (Sammy Morris, Kevin Faulk). Nobody was touting those players as the secret sauce. The offensive line has been better, but for the most part, it's been together for a few seasons. Scarnecchia is the epitome of consistency, and the same goes for McDaniels. Brady, with better weapons in the past, has been more of a threat in his career.
Yet here they are, heading Super Bowl LIII, largely on the strength of a running game that has dominated time of possession and put the offense -- for the most part -- ahead of the sticks for the past nine quarters.
So why have the Patriots morphed into a powerful, rush-based offense in the biggest games?
Simple: Physics.
And the Rams — who played a lot of defense this season with only one linebacker on the field — better wise up to the equation, or they'll be joining the Chargers and Chiefs as Patriots' playoff roadkill.
So what's the Patriots advantage the Rams will have to counter?
The size and strength of the their run blocking apparatus.
Look, don't get me wrong. Size alone is not going to win anything along the line. You need technique and proper execution. The Patriots have that. Between Joe Thuney, David Andrews, Shaq Mason, Marcus Cannon, Rob Gronkowski and James Develin, you're talking about highly experienced players — and they're good. Add in a size/strength advantage, and the Patriots are cooking with gas.
New England, however, won't do anything unless it has a good chance of success, especially when it comes to taking the ball out of Brady's hands. When the Patriots know they have an edge in any facet of the game, they will exploit that weakness against the opponent.
The Patriots knew the Chargers would play with six or seven defensive backs, and their linebackers (when put on the field) weren't good.
"They've been doing it all year. They did it against us last year," Belichick snorted when I asked him about the Chargers after that game. "Yeah, that’s what they do."
In the matchup with the Chiefs, the Patriots knew that even if Kansas City played its base 3-4 personnel against them, New England had the advantage. The three down linemen (Chris Jones, Derrick Nnadi, Allen Bailey) are decent size, but they can be doubled or run away from (especially Jones). All four linebackers, however, are undersized, as long as they didn't put Breeland Speaks (6-foot3, 285 pounds) on the field for Dee Ford or Justin Houston (all are 255 pounds or less).
So what did the Patriots do Sunday? On the first play of the game, they brought in their 21 personnel and bullied the Chiefs for 11 yards. It was a sign of things to come.
Brown vs. Ford: Brown outweighs him by 130 pounds.
Thuney vs. Jones: Even, but they ran away from him. His three-technique alignment made it easy.
Andrews vs. Nnadi: Even, but got help from Mason on a double team.
Mason vs. Anthony Hitchens: Mason outweighs him by 75 pounds.
Develin vs. Reggie Ragland: Even, but Develin has a running start.
Cannon vs. Bailey: Cannon has 30 pounds on him.
Gronkowski vs. Houston: Gronk has him by 10 pounds and 4 inches.
That was against the base 3-4. The Patriots continued to run the ball, even on "passing situations" like second-and-8. The Chiefs are in nickel here, the Patriots have an even bigger advantage, and they go to work.
It's advantage Patriots all over the place. It continued, even into subpackages. Did you wonder why they kept running James White on third down? It's because, as always, the Patriots knew they had the advantage.
The Chiefs finally adjusted in the second half, both with their spacing (they covered up the three interior linemen to negate double teams) and personnel (Speaks got on the field more). And in short yardage, when the Patriots no longer had a physical advantage, they struggled some.
Some people might say this approach is by design, that Belichick realizes the rest of the league is getting smaller, so they're going to go big. While I'm not going to discount that, every piece has been in place for some time with the Patriots, except for Brown. Yes, he's massive. But Nate Solder was no shrimp, and the other possible left tackle, first-round pick Isaiah Wynn, was a guard/tackle tweener who would be on the smaller side of NFL left tackles.
I think a lot of it has just been happenstance. Good timing. I think it also fit with Brady taking a little bit of a step back, and his weapons not being as threatening as they have been in years past.
Put all that together, and you have a physical running team — if the opponent can't match it.
However they've arrived at this point, there's no doubt this is the way the Patriots are operating right now. Opponents must adjust -- they can no longer treat New England the same as they did in the past, where taking care of the receivers/Gronkowski was the top objective, and you make do with the running game.
Teams now would be wise to match personnel with the Patriots. Put your best run defenders on the field against 21 personnel and don't match Gronkowski with a safety — an automatic in the past. Put a linebacker on him, hit him at the line if he releases and make the tight end beat you with the pass. While we're at it, squat the safeties at 12 yards and dare Brady to beat you deep. He may do that, but at least you have a fighting chance. If you allow the Patriots to have the physical advantage up front, they will pummel you with it.
Just ask the Chargers and Chiefs.
Here are the positional ratings against the Chiefs:
Quarterback (3.5 out of 5)
If we just took the end of the fourth quarter and overtime, obviously this would be a 5 out of 5. Brady was at his absolute best down the stretch, similar to the fourth quarter in the Seattle Super Bowl and during the comeback against the Falcons when the team needed him the most. That's why, if the defense can get a few key stops, it's hard to bet against Brady at this point. His effectiveness certainly waned for portions of the regular season, but anyone who doubts him now is making a serious mistake. I mean, this throw — from the look off to the actual pass — was just flawless.
Running backs (4.5 out of 5)
Michel had a nice game, but he did leave yards on the field during a 9-yard run when he should have put his head down and got the extra yard. He didn't, and the Patriots wound up punting. That said, he continues to do some nice, hard running. The big runs were because of the blocking — I was impressed with some of his shorter runs of 4, 4, 5, 4 and 10 yards where he showed good vision. ... Rex Burkhead was excellent catching (two plus-catches) and running the ball. He definitely earned more time down the stretch. ... James White was a little muted with a drop and a stuffed run. ... Develin was solid.
Receivers (4 out of 5)
A lot of good in this game from everyone, especially Gronkowski and Julian Edelman, as well as Phillip Dorsett (touchdown) and Chris Hogan (game-saving third catch). But everyone also had some miscues. Gronkowski had a stuff and the drop for a potential interception. Edelman didn't run the route Brady wanted early and shared an interception. Dorsett had a penalty, and Hogan and Cordarrelle Patterson each had a drop. But the good far outweighed any of the errors overall.
Offensive line (5 out of 5)
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It wasn't completely flawless (especially from Marcus Cannon) but I don't think I've ever charted a game where the other team didn't sack or knockdown a quarterback. That leads your quarterback to post this picture. So kudos to those guys.
There were some issues in the running game, but to allow no hits, no negative runs and no penalties on nearly 100 offensive snaps on the road ... I mean, that's just sensational. In order of effectiveness: Thuney, Andrews, Mason, Brown, Cannon.
DEFENSE
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Defensive line (4.5 out of 5)
Lawrence Guy (goal line gap) and Adrian Clayborn (screen pass) each contributed to touchdowns, but that was it out of this group for negative plays. In total. Not a ton of splash plays, just good and solid play out of everyone, starting with Trey Flowers. Interesting how the bench got a lot smaller for this group in this game.
Linebackers (4 out of 5)
We've already touted the many exploits of Kyle Van Noy in this one, but Elandon Roberts and Dont'a Hightower were good as well. Roberts, on a per-snap basis, has played excellent in recent weeks (not much playing time). Hightower has basically been the same for a while -- a couple of impactful plays and a couple pass plays allowed, including a touchdown in this game.
Secondary (3.5 out of 5)
Obviously, this group did a nice job shutting down Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce. But they all still gave up some plays, including Stephon Gilmore. ... Overall, this group has played very physical the past two weeks, and is playing with fire if the officials call the Super Bowl closely. ... J.C. Jackson's trainwreck game with three penalties (all legit, and he could have been flagged more), two big passes and a TD allowed was coming for weeks. Love the kid's competitiveness, but he's going to need to learn how and when to turn it on to become an elite corner — and he has that potential. But I will say, Jackson had little shot on this ridiculous play from Mahomes. Sometimes you just gotta tip your cap. This kid has no idea how good he can be if he keeps doing things the right way.
I thought the safeties were really good in this game. ... Funny what happens when Duron Harmon (two snaps) barely plays and Devin McCourty goes back to his better free safety spot. I said this was going to be a big Harmon game and it could all ride on him ... but the coaches didn't let it come to that. A wise move, I would say.
THREE UP
Kyle Van Noy: Got lucky Mahomes overthrew Damien Williams in the end zone. And Van Noy may have had some responsibility on the screen touchdown, but, man, what a game from the linebacker. All over the field, even on "minor" plays -- stopping a screen after fighting through two blocks to limit it to 5 yards, taking down Kelce immediately, and stopping the run off of blocks.
Joe Thuney: Basically you could put every lineman except Cannon here and I wouldn't complain. Andrews and Mason had more key blocks, but Chris Jones is a tough matchup and Thuney had nearly a clean sheet.
Brady in fourth quarter/overtime: This team doesn't win this game without what he did down the stretch, especially on third down and in long yardage. Terrific.
THREE DOWN
J.C. Jackson: Three penalties and a touchdown negates much of the good work he did against Kelce.
Dwayne Allen: Barely plays and gets run over by Speaks on third-and-1 to force a punt. That's what he's paid for.
Adrian Clayborn: Didn't register a pressure and Pressure was mostly coverage-induced and failed to hit Williams coming out of the backfield on his screen TD. The lack of attention to detail in his game has been a constant problem, and could land him on the bench in the Super Bowl for Deatrich Wise.