MLB Notebook: Dave Dombrowski on why the Red Sox chose to spend on starters instead of bullpen

This winter, the Red Sox prioritized their starting rotation over their bullpen. If you're surprised about that, you probably shouldn't be.

After all, this marks the second time the organization has made such a choice in the last six months.

Back in July, while the Sox dabbled in some relief help (inquiring, for instance, twice about reliever Kelvin Herrera), they made a clear choice to address their rotation -- even if it came at the expense of bolstering their bullpen.

The Sox could have marshalled their efforts toward Zach Britton, who was being auctioned off by the Baltimore Orioles. Not even the likelihood that Britton could land with the rival Yankees -- he did -- seemed to distract the Sox from their focus on the rotation.

Instead, the Red Sox fixed their attention on Nathan Eovaldi, acquiring him from the Tampa Bay Rays in exchange for minor league lefty Jalen Beeks.

It seemed an odd decision at the time, since the Red Sox' bullpen was showing signs of wear-and-tear and even closer Craig Kimbrel wasn't himself. Acquiring Britton would have given the Sox 1) a lefty for the late innings; 2) someone with proven high-leverage experience to assume some of the eighth-inning workload; and 3) a depth option beyond Kimbrel in save situations.

But Eovaldi was their choice, a decision which proved correct. He appeared in 12 games -- 11 of them starts -- and fashioned a 3.33 ERA. Eovaldi paid even bigger dividends in the postseason, with a 1.61 ERA in six games across the ALDS, ALCS and World Series. Most famously, Eovaldi proved to be almost otherworldly with six innings of one earned-run relief -- albeit in a losing effort -- in the Game 4 marathon in the World Series.

This winter, we've watched history repeat itself. Again, there were a multitude of bullpen options available in free agency, and again, the Sox instead chose to go with Eovaldi.

"We think (Eovaldi) is much more valuable to bring back than it would be to (spend money on relievers),'' Dombrowski told BostonSportsJournal.com. "I mean, it's hard to get a starting pitcher like that, so for us, that was the decision we made. And it was also the decision we made at the trading deadline.''

Let's look at this strictly from a financial standpoint: the Sox re-signed free agent Eovaldi to a four-year, $68 million contract, with an AAV (average annual value) of $17 million.

The Sox could easily have signed, for instance, Adam Ottavino and Herrera, for almost exactly the same money. (Ottavino got an AAV of $9 million from the Yankees while Herrera got an AAV of $8.5 million from the Chicago White Sox).

Or, the Sox could have signed David Robertson ($10 million in 2019 as part of a two-year, $23 million deal with the Phillies) and Jeurys Familia ($6.6 million in the first year of a three-year deal with the Mets) for a little less than what they gave Eovaldi.

Such combinations would have more than made up for the loss of set-up man Joe Kelly and the expected departure of Kimbrel. Instead, the Sox placed greater value on finishing out their rotation.

Why?

At a time when teams ask for and expect their bullpens to provide nearly as many innings as their starters -- the average American League team got 5.3 innings from starters; the Red Sox were at 5.4 -- the choice seems almost counterintuitive.

In 2018, the Red Sox got 587.1 innings from their bullpen in the regular season; by contrast, just 10 years ago, in 2009, that figure was more than a hundred fewer innings (479).

In fact, the Yankees, in reflecting this shift of emphasis, have signed as many late-inning relievers (Britton and Ottavino) as they did starters (J.A. Happ and CC Sabathia), though they did also obtain James Paxton in a trade.

"Sometimes it's just different philosophies,'' noted Dombrowski. "We have a lot of (relief) guys we like. We have a lot of good arms and one of those guys might establish himself as a closer. I also think that the nature of the bullpen is very up-and-down from year-to-year. Our analytics prove (that relief performance is notoriously unpredictable). For me, it's been the least predictive area of performance, year-in and year-out.

"Other teams feel that they should spend in a different way. But we just thought it was more important to go out there and (add to the rotation). We like our chances when we're throwing (Chris) Sale, (David) Price, Eovaldi, (Rick) Porcello and (Eduardo) Rodriguez every five days. We just think it gives us a great opportunity to win every day.''

At a time when many other organizations are utilizing "openers'' and asking less of their starters, the Sox are comfortable giving their starting pitchers more responsibility. And while the rotation is established -- and arguably the best in the game -- the Sox think a bullpen can be cobbled together more easily.

"Sometimes,'' Dombrowski said, "bullpen can come from nowhere. We've focused a lot on that in our organization, to try to make that happen.

Such was the case a year ago when Ryan Brasier -- signed in February, summoned from Triple A mid-season -- became a stalwart in the Boston 'pen in the final two months of the regular season and in the postseason.

On the flip side, there's the case of Kelly, who, though he was brilliant in October, posted an ERA of 8.00 or higher in three of the six months of the regular season and, accordingly, was very nearly left off the postseason roster.

Finally, there's the matter of economic efficiency. Some teams debate the wisdom of giving $17-18 million elite closers who aren't likely to pitch more than 75 innings. Aroldis Chapman, Kenley Jansen and Wade Davis -- all of whom signed in the last two years -- are in that pay class. Kimbrel expected to join them.

"I'd leave that up to others,'' said Dombrowski, sidestepping the issue some. "But I think every team has to make their own decisions internally and for us, we had a choice: do we bring a reliever back Eovaldi or do we sign a reliever. Well, our choice was Eovaldi; if other teams do it other ways, that's their decision.

"It depends on the makeup of your team and the dollars you have to spend.''

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For now, it seems more likely that the Sox will find their closer internally, with Matt Barnes considered the odds-on-favorite unless the team surprises everyone and either signs or trades for an experienced closer.

"I feel good about it,'' he said. "We'll see. It's not my decision to make -- it's AC's (Alex Cora's). I'm going to do the same thing I do every year -- I'm going to show up, try to get outs in whatever inning or role that may be. So, whether that's the last three in the ninth or two in the fifth or whatever, getting outs is getting outs and that's what I'm going to try to do."

Barnes has recorded just two saves in his big league career, but due to his role as a set-up man, is accustomed to pitching in high-leverage spots and believes he could make the adjustment to the ninth -- if asked.

"Closing is definitely different,'' he admitted. "I'm not taking anything away from Craig (Kimbrel) or what closers do because it takes a special person to do that. It would definitely be a role change, but a role change that I would welcome and adapt to and do the job. I would definitely relish the challenge.''

Barnes made it clear that his first wish if for the Sox to re-sign Kimbrel. But that appears increasingly unlikely, leading to speculation about who Kimbrel's replacement might be.

If that happens to be Barnes, he's confident in his ability.

"Everybody has this (image) of a closer,'' he said. "It's definitely a more high-pressure situation just because it is the last three outs. But when you back on it, there were situations in the ALDS, ALCS and World Series that I've got to believe were more high-leverage or high-pressure, even if it was the sixth inning, than a game in May in which you're up by two (runs).

"So, if I am the closer and I am in that role, then you pull on those experiences of pitching in the postseason where the second inning is just as important as the ninth inning and getting the outs and the mentality that I had in those games and use that to move forward.''

One cautionary note: Barnes has traditionally pitched better in low- and medium-leverage spots than he has in high-leverage situations.

Last season, opposing hitters had an OPS of .528 in low-leverage spots, .665 in medium-leverage situations and .673 in high-leverage spots. Over the course of his career, it's .660 in medium-leverage situations and .758 in high-leverage spots.

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Within weeks of the Sox winning the World Series, pitching coach Dana LeVangie began to plot out his spring training plans for the starting rotation.

Sale, Price, Porcello and Eovaldi all pitches in relief in the postseason, so LeVangie knew he had to take that into account in his planning.

"I think it's far to say we're going to do it pretty similar to what we did last year,'' he said. "Obviously, we'll take a slower approach again. The (Grapefruit League) schedule starts on (Feb.) 22, but those guys won't be involved in games until the second week of March or a little bit later. That means they're doing their progressions with bullpens or maybe a back field-type of thing.

"We want to try to do this right, understanding that we like our chances, we like our guys and we like our team a lot. We want to go about this the right way and hopefully we get to September and October at full strength.''

The Sox have already discussed the likelihood of inserting a sixth starter into the first road trip, giving additional recovery time for the Big Four.