We all know the Patriots have not been good on the road this season. The next time the Patriots play a good 60 minutes away from Gillette, it will be the first time since they beat the Bills 23-3 at Buffalo on Dec. 3, 2017.
Yes, it's been that long.
Every single game has been a struggle, from the five losses to the three victories.
Largely because of that, they'll have to win on the road against the Chiefs on Sunday to advance to their third Super Bowl in four seasons.
Should we just ignore their recent history? Should we just see the helmets, Tom Brady throwing to Julian Edelman and James White, and Bill Belichick snarling on the sidelines, and just think they're the same-old Patriots and they'll win out against an inexperienced foe?
Perhaps.
If the Patriots could suddenly erupt and dominate a more talented and more accomplished Chargers team in a manner that no one saw coming, why couldn't they do the same to the Chiefs?
That could happen. I readily concede the Patriots looked like a different football team last week. They had a seriousness and a determination they lacked for much of this season. Brady was pissed off at times. Edelman would not be denied. The defense was suffocating. Maybe the Patriots have learned how to pace themselves, and only dialed up their intense focus for do-or-die games. That could definitely be possible.
It would make the mythology that's been shoved down everyone's throats all these years about this team — nobody works harder than the Patriots, everything starts in the offseason, the most important game is the next game, we're only about football and not hocking t-shirts in the middle of the playoffs, the most important ability is availability, etc. — completely bunk. But yes, it's definitely possible.
And I think that just might happen. Let's go through what I think are the important factors in the game, and then my pick:
A good start is a must: Notice I didn't say "fast" start. I don't really care if the Patriots score on their first possession, but they need to play well and be close after the first quarter, or else the confidence of the Chiefs and Patrick Mahomes will just grow and feed the belly of the Arrowhead beast. Due to renovations, the stadium doesn't have the advantage it once did. But it's still pretty good, and the Patriots can't afford to fall behind by too much.
New England fell behind 21-3 at Jacksonville, 13-0 at Detroit, 17-3 at Tennesse, and 14-7 at Pittsburgh. Do that again on Sunday, and the game is largely over — and the Patriots are who we thought they were.
Know Mahomes and Reid are going to make you look bad: This isn't Peyton Manning outside the dome, nor a normal "rookie" quarterback. This isn't Mike Tomlin on the other sidelines. Reid is going to have plays that will make the Patriots look bad. Mahomes is going to make 4-5 plays that will have Patriots defenders saying, "How are we going to stop that?" That's OK. The Patriots don't have to play a perfect game. They just have to play better than the Chiefs more often over the course of 60 minutes.
Make Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill feel like they've just gone 12 rounds: It might be easier said than done with Hill — like catching a greased hog that runs a 4.3 — but the Patriots need to make sure both the receiver and the tight end are hit on every single play. They need to be hit at the snap of the ball, and after the play. Kelce is definitely up for tapping out if it gets too physical, and maybe the beating causes Hill to lose his concentration at some point. A play here or there will determine this game. I also wouldn't be opposed to Stephon Gilmore taking some red zone reps against Kelce.
Let the offensive line do its thing, d-line needs to bring A game: There has not been a position group on this team that has done a better and more consistent job from Game 1 to 17 this season than the offensive line. From protecting Brady to opening huge holes in the running game that every running back has sauntered through, Dante Scarnecchia's troops have been the real strength of this team. People get preoccupied with catches, sacks, yards per attempt and everything else that matters in fantasy, but football really comes down to one thing: Who controls the line of scrimmage more? Everything else is a byproduct of that.
The Patriots' offensive line should dominate the Chiefs. Justin Houston and Dee Ford are undersized. Chris Jones, Allen Bailey and Derrick Nnadi are going to be much more difficult to move than the Chargers, but the Patriots' combination blocks and powers should handle them.
To me, this game could very well come down to how the Patriots' front six do against the Chiefs. Kansas City is a good, solid unit. The Patriots need to be better. They can't let the criminally underrated Damien Williams (I'd take him tomorrow over Sony Michel. Go ahead, @ me.) get going. The Patriots need to make Mahomes feel uncomfortable at least 30 percent of the time (New England pressured him 18 percent in the first matchup, but Mahomes is a much different player now). You'd prefer to pressure with four to start and then make adjustments. I'd rather have extra players in coverage against Hill and Kelce, but pressure is also important against Mahomes.
Survive until the fourth quarter: If the Patriots do all or most of the above, they stay within striking distance well into the second half. If Brady has the ball down 10 points in the fourth quarter with 10 minutes left, the Patriots are at least going to force overtime, if not win the game outright. Reid is great with a script, with a big lead or deficit. But if he has to manage the game and weigh burning clock and timeouts, he's going to make a mistake. Nobody takes more advantage of that than the Patriots. The last 10 minutes belong to Belichick and Brady.
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