Early success on the ground has paved the way for Patriots' offense - will it happen again Sunday?

FOXBOROUGH — The best way to gauge how things are going for the Patriots in the early going? Look at their first-quarter run totals.

The New England offense has gone through multiple looks over the course of the 2018 regular season, but when it comes to setting the table for their success on any given Sunday, their ability to run the ball in the early going is a great barometer of how the rest of the contest is going to go.

How dramatic are the splits?



In their wins this season — including the divisional playoff victory over the Chargers last Sunday in Foxborough — the Patriots have run the ball 93 times for 443 yards in the first quarter. That’s an average of 4.8 yards per carry, and includes strong opening acts against the likes of Kansas City; in that October contest against the Chiefs, New England averaged 6.2 yards per carry on their 12 first-quarter carries that night.

Of course, the flip side is the losses. In the five defeats this season, the Patriots have 26 carries for 74 yards in the first quarter — that includes slow starts for the ground game against the Jaguars (2.4 yards per carry in the first quarter), Lions (3.0 ypc) and Steelers (2.0 ypc).

It’s not a hard and fast rule — New England averaged 1.3 yards per carry in the opening quarter of their October win over the Colts, for example, and a 1.6 yards per-carry average on the first quarter in the regular-season finale against the Jets. But more often than not, a strong opening salvo on the ground has been a good indication of future success for the Patriots.

One of the fundamental reasons behind New England’s ground game success has been rookie running back Sony Michel, who has done as well as anyone when it comes to setting an early tone. He has 66 carries for 297 yards in the first quarter this year, an average of 4.5 yards per carry. (When it comes to his total yardage, it’s second only to his production in the third quarter — he had 301 rushing yards in the third quarter of this year’s games.)