For the first time in over a month, the Celtics will be back at full strength on Wednesday night for their nationally televised showdown with the Toronto Raptors.
Marcus Smart will be back in the lineup after a one-game absence due to illness, but the bigger story is the return of Aron Baynes, who has been cleared by doctors to play exactly four weeks after he suffered a broken bone in his hand against the Suns.
Brad Stevens told Zolak and Bertrand he is not sure whether the veteran center will be on a minutes limit, but he is likely to play against the NBA's best team on Wednesday night.
The Celtics went 7-6 in the 13 games that Baynes missed over the past month, primarily due to a dropoff in play on the defensive end. Boston allowed 106 points per 100 possessions during that stretch, four points more than their season average. That slippage was at least partially due to the absence of Baynes, since he has been the team's best big man defender all year, as the Celtics allow just 99 points per 100 possessions when he's on the floor.
While it's unlikely Baynes will see more than 10-15 minutes in a game against Toronto, his strength will come in handy against
old teammate Greg Monroe, who is now coming off the bench for the Raptors in place of an injured Jonas Valanciunas and is a massive rebounding and post presence. The Raptors go small in their starting five with Serge Ibaka starting at the center spot, so look for Baynes' minutes to match up primarily against Monroe tonight while Daniel Theis and Al Horford spend time at the center spot against Ibaka.
The other place where Baynes is sure to make an impact is with his screening. The Celtics' bench unit has struggled with their offense in stretches in recent games and the 31-year-old center hands out screen assists at a higher rate than anyone on the team. He will be working hard to get the likes of Gordon Hayward, Jaylen Brown and Terry Rozier (if he still is getting minutes) open looks and that should ease the burden on them in the halfcourt.
The bigger story beyond just this game is the fact that this Celtics rotation is at full strength again for one of the few times this season. They had not played a game with a fully healthy rotation since December 6th, and that marks just four games after the new-look starting five (Smart and Morris) were put out there together. While this group has thrived in the past by playing shorthanded, it's quite clear that they were vulnerable in specific matchups this season without a full complement of options. Now, Stevens has plenty of choices at his disposal on a nightly basis and he's going to have to mix and match carefully in order to maximize this group's play.
There's no guarantee that Baynes helps to get this group back on track by himself, but the numbers say he will be a big boost on at least the defensive end of the floor. With a daunting gap building in the standings (three games back of No. 4 seeded Philadelphia) towards the top of the East, the time for excuses is over now with this group back at full strength. It's now on Stevens to put the pieces together to get it to work, with the presence of Baynes allowing the possibility of a more defensive mindset for this group to get it done.
Other Things to Watch for in Celtics-Raptors
- Kawhi Leonard is playing like a man on a mission: The small forward is averaging 29.2 points per game over the last 10 contests with a whopping 9.2 free throw attempts per game while drawing over seven fouls per game. The Celtics will likely start with Marcus Morris on him in the starting five, but it's possible that Marcus Smart gets shifted his way if Pascal Siakam is bullying Jayson Tatum too much down low. Boston's starters are going to need to be far more disciplined than we saw on Monday night in Brooklyn to slow down Leonard and this offense.
- Kyle Lowry isn't himself just yet after returning from injury: He's missed a few games with a back injury and his offensive play (35 percent from the field, 28 percent from 3) has been pretty lackluster in his four games since returning. He still is setting up the offense nicely (eight assists per game) but stopping other secondary options (Siakam, Ibaka) will probably be a bigger priority in this one for Boston's defense.
- No OG Anunoby should help: The Raptors have speed and size almost everywhere but they will be losing one of their best defensive weapons in this one in Anunoby (who is out for personal reasons). That should come as a pretty big boost for Boston's bench as the likes of Brown and Hayward won't have to worry about creating space against one of the best wing defenders in the league.
