What should the Celtics do with Terry Rozier?

On many nights, the Celtics have not been a better team when Terry Rozier is on the floor this year. Any discussion surrounding the fourth-year guard on this team should begin there. The individual numbers don’t present much of an adjustment from a normal season for Rozier. His 3-point shooting is down but respectable (34.9 percent), he’s rebounding well and his turnover rate remains impressively low. The 24-year-old has also struggled finishing inside the paint, something that has been true for his entire career. All in all, it looks (on paper) like the same old Rozier. He's excelled in a starting role when given the opportunity (something that will happen again on Monday night as Kyrie Irving rests a sore quad), but those impressive numbers (48% FG, 41% 3pt, 14-5-5 averages) have been limited to his four starts.

However, a look deeper inside his on-court numbers coming off the bench tells a more discouraging tale. The Celtics as a team aren’t succeeding nearly as regularly when Rozier is on the court, especially on the offensive end of the floor. On the year, Boston scores 10 points fewer per 100 possessions with Rozier out there, and while he is not responsible entirely for that number, it’s easy to see a direct correlation. The past two games in Miami and Orlando showcased some of the pitfalls of Rozier’s season to date and makes you wonder just how much longer Brad Stevens will stick with him as a regular part of the rotation if he keeps up a mix of poor shot selection and lackluster production.

Let’s dissect his last two performances and get a better sense of what needs to change, along with potential alternatives for Stevens as the C’s inconsistencies roll on.

Rozier’s stat line for Miami and Orlando: 34 minutes, 1-of-13 FG, 0-of-6 3pt, 4 points, 9 rebounds, 2 assists, 1 steal, 1 turnover, minus-29

Rozier has never been short on confidence and that’s incredibly evident this year with his shot selection. We’ve written already about it here at BSJ and those problems still stand a few weeks later. However, his shot volume is starting to become just as much of an issue in recent weeks, particularly with Rozier at the helm of the second unit offense. On many possessions, he is the decision maker when the ball comes down the floor and it is producing far too many shots for a below average offensive player this year.

Rozier is attempting 6.4 3-pointers per 36 minutes, the third highest total on the team behind a couple of potential All-Stars in Marcus Morris and Kyrie Irving. Having the green light so often is producing far too many looks like this which are detrimental to the offense that Stevens wants. Both of these came in the fourth quarter of Saturday’s loss to the Magic.





A 30-footer early in the shot clock and a contested wing 3 in transition both produced empty trips in the midst of a game-changing Magic fourth-quarter run. These are the types of shots that have plagued Rozier far too often this year and they aren’t just coming from beyond the arc either. Rozier’s midrange game has completely fallen off a cliff (20 percent from 16-23 feet) and he’s not too much better on shots closer to the rim either. The combo guard invites a high degree of difficulty on the majority of his drives and that leads to challenging looks like this:





While those may be decent looks for some players, they are not for an undersized guard who is one of the worst finishers in the NBA from 2-point range this season. Among players who take four or more 2-point attempts per game, Rozier has the third worst shooting percentage mark in the NBA at 40.1 percent on those attempts. The quantity of these shots given their success rate is just inexcusable for a top-tier offense. Boston can get better looks almost anywhere else on the roster, yet Rozier is continually given a long leash on this front.

So what should Brad Stevens do to solve this issue?

A few options to look at and how realistic they are:

1. Play Rozier off the ball more: The guard has always been at his best on offense as a catch-and-shoot threat. He can knock down open threes with good consistency and there’s less of a chance for poor decision making in this type of setup. A byproduct of moving Marcus Smart into the starting five has been putting the ball in the hands of Rozier more with the bench unit, so it’s quite possible that a rotation shift will have to take place here unless Gordon Hayward can be counted on to take over a point forward role. Brad Stevens like to get Irving off the ball at times with Rozier in the game but it’s clear that has not been an efficient move. Hayward/Smart/Irving need to be running the show more if Rozier is going to keep his minutes.
Odds of happening: Most probable scenario (50 percent)

2. Give Brad Wanamaker a shot at backup point guard: The 28-year-old rookie did not impress during the preseason, but he’s put together a couple of respectable performances while filling in for Irving at the point last week. He lacks Rozier’s athleticism but he can run a pick-and-roll well and knock down an open jumper. Perhaps most importantly, he’s not going to overreach and take shots he shouldn’t. Stevens has avoided this route all year long, mostly because Rozier hasn’t been deserving of a flat-out bench (yet), but also likely because he didn’t want to lose the restricted free-agent-to-be from a mental standpoint. Still, there were times last year when Stevens opted for spot minutes with Shane Larkin over Rozier and there should be no harm in rolling the dice here a little bit with Wanamaker. It may create a bit of a locker room issue but should also send a strong message to Rozier with his shot choices. I wouldn’t expect a flat out benching of Rozier but perhaps Wanamaker gets a chance over him in one half if the issue continues.
Odds of happening: 25 percent

3. Trade Terry Rozier before the trade deadline, give minutes to Wanamaker or another addition: BSJ reported back in October that odds of a Rozier trade were extremely low before the trade deadline and league sources have said nothing has changed on that front. Not only is Rozier’s trade stock low right now, but the C’s obviously view him as a potential sign-and-trade chip for this summer, with Anthony Davis or other possibilities. Moving him now would be selling low and limiting their options potentially this summer, especially since trading for Davis without Rozier would be virtually impossible from a salary matching standpoint unless Marcus Smart or Al Horford are involved. If Danny Ainge was going to move Rozier, he would have done it this offseason. It may have been a wise gamble but it’s one the Celtics are probably going to ride out at this point.
Odds of happening: 1 percent

4. Ride things out as they are: This is what Stevens has done for the past couple months but with the C’s languishing in the fifth seed in the East nearly halfway through the regular season, I imagine patience is starting to wear thin. Rozier will probably get another shot but the leash with him is going to get far shorter with him in the point guard spot. The coaching staff will need to demand smarter choices and discipline from him in order to let him keep the ball in his hands so much. He’s clearly shown the team can thrive with him in this role (last season), but this year has been a different ballgame. He needs to find consistency again in order to maintain it.
Odds of happening: 24 percent

All in all, Rozier hasn’t been the team’s biggest problem in the last few nights. Defensive miscommunications killed the visitors in the fourth quarter against the Magic and it was the starting five that was responsible for many of those. However, Rozier’s offensive woes have been persistent enough over the past few months to get everyone’s attention. This team has been riddled by inconsistencies all year long and they need to start eliminating some to get to their potential. Whether it’s an internal improvement or a rotation shift, Rozier’s situation needs to be addressed before more damage is done in the standings.