With the Celtics officially hitting the midway point of the season after Thursday's game against the Heat, the time is right for our monthly check-in on the hierarchy of this roster. A look at how each player stands after an 25-16 start to the year.
14. Guerschon Yabusele (Previously: 14): The 23-year-old has played eight straight games heading into Saturday’s matchup against Orlando but the increased activity has been a result of garbage time play during wins and losses rather than a notable spike in opportunity. Yabusele turned some heads with a strong defensive performance in the win over Memphis last month but has not been able to surpass Daniel Theis for bench big minutes even with Aron Baynes out. With the veteran center set to return next week, Yabusele will probably see more action in Maine than with the big club over the next three months. He deserves a chance at some point but this roster is too deep for him to get it.
13. Brad Wanamaker (13): After nearly a full half-season of waiting on the bench, Wanamaker played his best game as a pro in a Celtics uniform last Friday against Dallas with four rotation players out in front of him. He posted career-highs in points (8), assists (4) and steals (3) before being relegated back to deep bench duty once Kyrie Irving and Marcus Morris returned to the lineup. Brad Stevens hasn’t gone to Wanamaker as a ‘spark’ option much this year (unlike Shane Larkin last year) but it will be interesting to see if he gets a chance here and there in the second half if Terry Rozier continues to struggle. Wanamaker doesn’t have the explosiveness that Rozier does but he’s a far steadier option in the pick-and-roll. On a team where ball-stopping has been a problem, Wanamaker should help on that front.
12. Robert Williams (11): A groin injury that sidelined him for over two weeks in December robbed him of a chance of rising further up this list. He was one of the few bright spots in an ugly loss in Miami on Thursday as the center was a plus-15 in a double-digit loss thanks to some solid defense and timely contributions on the offensive end. His block rate (14 percent) still tops the league among players who have seen the floor for 100-plus minutes this year. If he can become a more reliable defender in the pick-and-roll as the season wears on, he has a chance to stay relevant in the rotation even when Baynes returns, thanks to his unique athletic skillset.
11. Semi Ojeleye (12): A fairly ordinary season to date for the second-year forward. On the plus side, he has the second-best net rating on the team, largely thanks to the fact the Celtics allow nine fewer points per possession when he’s on the floor. The problem for him has obviously been the depth that’s been in front of him, along with the fact that his outside shooting (28.8 percent from 3-point range) has not progressed to the point where Stevens is comfortable playing him over the likes of Jaylen Brown or Gordon Hayward. He remains a key part of this team’s future (thanks to his bargain deal for next two years), but he’s going to be continually relegated to situationally duty unless a trade is made to free up some minutes.
10. Aron Baynes (9): This ranking is more a byproduct of his injuries this season than anything else. He’s missed more games due to injury (16) than anyone on the roster and the Celtics defense has suffered without him over the past few weeks while facing elite true bigs such as LaMarcus Aldridge, Clint Capela and Marc Gasol. When he is cleared to return from a broken hand, his minutes will be intriguing to watch. The guess here is he will get closer to 15 per game to help take the onus off Al Horford in the second half, while also keeping Daniel Theis in the mix. If Baynes can start to make 3s (32 percent on the year) at an average rate though, Stevens may be inclined to keep him on the floor, even more, to help steady the team’s interior defense.
9. Terry Rozier (8): This feels low at first glimpse when you look at his individual numbers, which are largely on par with his production last year per 36 minutes. His field goal percentages are down, but he’s still making 3s at a decent clip (35 percent) while rebounding the ball well and turning the ball over at a minuscule rate. The problem? Boston’s offense has seen substantial dropoff when Rozier is on the floor (scoring 10 points fewer per 100 possessions) and as the defacto point guard with the second unit, Rozier holds a lot of responsibility for that. His shot selection remains a rollercoaster ride on most nights and he’s not bringing out the best of his teammates enough. He thrived in a starting role again with Irving out, so it’s clear the potential is still there with a longer leash. However, he hasn’t proven to be worthy of it just yet.
8. Daniel Theis (10): It’s been a sneaky solid season for the second-year center despite a couple of untimely injuries. Outside of a rough stretch against Western Conference teams last week, Theis has been a net positive on both ends of the floor for this group. He’s knocking down 3s (40 percent), is finishing with a nice touch around the rim (73 percent) and his turnovers are way down this year. He is fouling way too much still (some of which comes due to a lack of respect from officials) but he’s shown enough to stay in the rotation once Baynes returns. With Horford needing to keep his minutes down to stay healthy, the Celtics have the right pieces behind him to keep winning in Theis, Baynes and Williams.
7. Jaylen Brown (7): The 22-year-old has nicely turned things around in his last 10 games (prior to the dud in Miami), with 14.6 ppg on 55 percent shooting. He’s got a long way to go to make his season numbers respectable from 3-point range (29.5 percent) but the Celtics will happily take the guy who is showing some efficiency around the basket again, along with an ability to get to the free throw line. Like Rozier, the biggest challenge for Brown in the second half of the season is ensuring that his strides help translate into success for the team. Boston’s offense is eight points worse per 100 possessions when he’s on the floor, which is a result of his questionable shot selection at times and lackluster assist rate. If he can keep his 3-point shooting on the upswing (36 percent in last 10 games) and start taking smarter shots, that should go a long way towards moving him towards a consistent positive for this team on offense.
6. Gordon Hayward (6): It’s been a rollercoaster ride of a season for the former All-Star, but the 28-year-old has shown signs of turning the corner in the month of January. He’s shooting a sensational 55 percent from the field in his first five games of 2019 and has scored in double-digits in four straight games for the first time all year. He’s had a better season than the likes of Brown and Rozier thus far (despite his offensive struggles) largely due to his contributions in other facets of the game. He’s posting the best defensive-rebounding rate of his career and his assist rate has been on par with his career average as well. He’s still far from his top form but if he can prove to be a reliable 15-point option for the rest of this season, that kind of output would raise the ceiling of this team after lackluster offense from the second unit for much of the first half of the year.
5. Al Horford (5): It might be safe to call him the 25-minute man for the rest of the season based on his efficiency in that limited timespan. Before Thursday’s dud in a back-to-back situation (wouldn’t be surprised if he gets those off moving forward), Horford’s efficiency has returned to his All-Star form in his eight games since returning, as he had shot 55 percent from the field and 47 percent from 3-point range during that stretch. More importantly, the Celtics have returned to being a dominant team (+16 net rating) when he is on the floor, a far cry from his play in October and November when the C’s actually played better defense as a team when he was resting on the bench (four points better per 100 possessions). The goal now will be simply maintaining good health for the rest of the way while trying to maximize his production. Both goals seem attainable with Baynes returning to the lineup next week.
4. Marcus Smart (4): Some players see considerable dips in their play after signing a big contract. Smart has been the exact opposite for the first half of 2018-19 season, playing some of the best basketball of his career instead over the past couple months. Shooting career-high 35 percent from 3-point range will get most of the headlines but Smart has used his starting role to assert himself as an All-Defense first team candidate by slowing down some of the best starters in the league on a nightly basis. He’s far from the perfect player (high turnover rate, still shooting 39 percent from field), but he’s adjusted his shot selection from a year ago in conjunction with the influx of talent on this team. That willingness to sacrifice, along with his impact on winning (via his insertion into the starting five) puts him as one of the most important pieces on this roster in the first half.
3. Jayson Tatum (2): The 20-year-old’s finishing around the basket and defensive rebounding has been improved since his rookie season, but almost everything else within his game has remained steady or regressed from year one. That’s not a huge surprise after a breakout year that produced some unsustainable shooting averages (43.4 percent from 3), but it has led to some frustrating moments inside the team due to his questionable shot selection in the midrange. Still, the makings of an All-star down the line are certainly in place and the Celtics play better on both ends of the floor when he’s out there. If he can get to the rim more in the second half of the year instead of relying on his own shot creation in the midrange, the C’s offensive resurgence could reach even greater heights.
2. Marcus Morris (3): One of the biggest surprises of the campaign has to be the evolution of Morris on the offensive end. He’s within striking distance of a 50/40/90 line, while ranking among the top-10 3-point shooters in the league with a 45 percent accuracy rate from beyond the arc. That’s easily a career-best despite the fact that Morris has increased his volume from downtown. He’s cut out the majority of his isolation shot creation in the midrange and has instead focused successfully on being an elite spot-up shooter and driver instead. Those contributions combined with elite defensive rebounding for the first couple of months of the year has helped turned around the C’s season since a 10-10 start.
1. Kyrie Irving (1): While Irving’s scoring will continually get the headlines, it’s his contributions in all aspects of the game that is separating himself during this 2018-19 season from his teammates. He’s putting together career-best numbers in both rebound rate and assist rate while keeping his efficiency at an elite level which has turned the Celtics into a juggernaut on both ends when he is on the floor. The biggest challenge in the second half will be trying to maintain his discipline in these areas despite the increased onus on his body. A well-timed week of rest last week (due to an eye injury) may help on that front but Boston is going to need 70-plus games from him to make a run at a top-two seed in the East after a lackluster start to the season.
NBA News and Notes
- A bit of a surprise to see Tom Thibodeau get the boot in Minnesota. The move was coming, but the expectation was he'd have at least a full season to turn it around after the Jimmy Butler trade, but owner Glen Taylor's timeline was not nearly that patient. Nice to see Ryan Saunders get a shot in his place (son of Flip Saunders) but it's hard to envision that team turning it around enough to get back into the playoff picture in such a loaded Western Conference.
- Massachusetts native Michael Carter-Williams got sent to Chicago by the Rockets this week and was waived ahead of the roster guarantee deadline by the Bulls, making him a free agent. He'll get another chance in the league next year but it's been a few tough seasons for the former Rookie of the Year, who has struggled with his offensive consistency.
- Very bizarre situation for Patrick McCaw, who was waived by the Cavs last week after signing a two-year deal with them, in a move that is being investigated by the NBA (since McCaw got rid of his restricted free agency status after the initial signing). He now joins a title contender in Toronto, but has no clear path for minutes behind a crowded situation at the wing spot. Perhaps, the Raptors will clear out the glut with a move at the trade deadline to upgrade at another position. For now, it will be a tough place for McCaw to improve his future value.
- Hate to see Northeastern product JJ Barea go down for the year with an Achilles' injury. He and Dirk Nowitzki have provided one of the most enjoyable pick-and-roll duos for years.
- DeMarcus Cousins is expected to debut on January 18th, which means he will be in Boston in two weeks for an ABC televised Saturday night showdown at the Garden.