This week's playoff contest has been one of the toughest Patriots' games to predict in recent memory.
On one hand, you have a road-tested opponent in the Chargers, who have won everywhere against high-quality opponents, including over the last month where they've emerged with victories at Pittsburgh, at Kansas City, at Denver and at Baltimore. They have one of the best quarterbacks in the league this season, with terrific weaponry at every position, and are highly efficient running and passing the ball. Their defense is filled with playmakers at all three levels (when safeties are at linebacker), and they are fast.
On the other side, you have almost the polar opposite. The Patriots lost five times on the road, and only beat one playoff team away from Foxborough (the Bears, who were 3-3 at the time), so their toughness has been questioned. And going 8-0 at home — where their last four victories came against teams with a combined record of 24-38-2 — hasn't dissuaded the talk they're a soft team that can only win under perfect conditions.
The Patriots' quarterback has taken a step back this season — most analytics have him in the area of eighth-best — as he's looked hurt and indecisive. And the weapons at his disposal are either aging or limited in big-play ability. As a result, the offense has largely been effective if they can run the ball, and generate some big plays with smoke and mirrors. The defense has played great in the past six games, but the front seven has lacked impact and can be made to look very slow.
And then, you have the undeniable intangibles that often impact games in the postseason. The Chargers are playing their third-straight road game, and are crisscrossing the country for the second time in a week. The only playoff game they've won since 2008 was against the Bengals in '13. The Patriots have players like Tom Brady, Rob Gronkowski, Julian Edelman, Devin McCourty and Patrick Chung — among many others — who have as many playoff victories under their belts since 2010 (13) as the Chargers have won this season, and they're coming off a needed bye. There's also the weather, which, despite being in the upper 20s with sunshine for the game, will be biting and unfamiliar to their SoCal opponents.
One of two storylines will emerge at the end of this game: One, the Chargers will continue to show an undeniable toughness, and make the Patriots look old and slow with their much-better athletic ability. Or two, the Patriots will recapture the magic and stir the echoes of their glory years — which aren't that far removed and has been seen in glimpses this year (vs. Kansas City, the first half in Miami) — and have one more day in the sunshine in the winter of the dynasty.
Which will happen?
We'll get to our best guess in a second, but let's go through a few major factors for both teams.
PROS AND CONS
- A lot has been made of the "struggles" of the Chargers' offense and Phillip Rivers in recent weeks. That's a bit unfair. Three of the four games were on the road in tough venues (KC, Denver, Baltimore), and three of the games were against defenses that are in the top five in efficiency (Ravens, Broncos). Even the Chiefs have the No. 12 passing defense. I mean, the criticism of the Chargers not blowing the doors off the Ravens last week completely ignores they got up early on an obviously inept offense, and all Los Angeles had to do was not turn the ball over
Conversely, the Patriots' offense has tuned up for this matchup against Miami (25th overall, 23rd vs. pass), Pittsburgh (13th/17th), Buffalo (2nd/2nd) and the Jets (21st/19th).
- In a tribute to how this has become a passing league, it's stunning the Chargers have made it this far with basically zero NFL-caliber linebackers on their roster. If the Patriots can be effective with the running game, this could be a huge factor.
- Another factor? The Chargers just faced the Ravens' defense, arguably the league's best at the end of the season, twice in three weeks. Baltimore basically runs the same scheme, especially with pressure packages, as the Patriots and it does it better. Facing the New England defense might seem easy in comparison.
- That being said, the Patriots' offensive line is way better than the Chargers. Left guard Dan Feeney will be the worst lineman on the field, and right tackle Sam Tevi isn't much better. Center Mike Pouncey and right guard Michael Schofield are average at best. The only advantage the Chargers have on the line is that left tackle Russell Okung is better than both Trent Brown and Marcus Cannon.
- The emotional factor is definitely on the side of the Chargers. While Brady has (at times) felt like he's been going through the motions this season — from his offseason decisions to his apathy as the team blew games at Miami and Pittsburgh — the Chargers are definitely feeding off the fact this could be Rivers' final chance at a ring. And the return of the heartbeat of the defense, nose tackle Brandon Mebane, after losing his daughter, will have that group playing with emotion.
- When it comes to special teams, the stats say they're even, but I see this as a decided advantage for New England. This is the type of cold-weather game where Cordarrelle Patterson earns his paycheck. Punter Donnie Jones is old — he was on the Nick Saban Dolphins' teams I covered, for crying out loud — and his get-off time is not great. He had a punt blocked last week (second of the season for Chargers), and I would not be surprised if the Patriots get one or two.
THE PICK
I'm going with the Patriots, 23-20.
Do I feel great about my choice? No. I could very easily see a scenario where the Chargers deliver a dominating, suffocating performance in the same vein as those put on by the Ravens ('12, '09) and Jets ('10), where a tough, hot, and battle-tested opponent with swagger comes in and makes the Patriots look old, slow and ineffective. The Chargers are just the type of team to expose all the weaknesses we've seen in the Patriots this season. They're that good.
But I'm going with the Patriots for a few different reasons:
- They might not have had it in the past with overachieving but ultimately untalented offensive lines, but New England's unit this season is fully capable of punishing the Chargers for playing too many defensive backs (notice I said the line, and not who's in the backfield? That's inconsequential compared to the blocking). And with the game being at home, their mind-numbing penalties that put them behind the sticks on the road should be a thing of the past. Plus, Brown and Cannon probably needed the bye week worse than anyone.
- I think the Patriots will block a punt to swing the game.
- I think the Patriots will make Rivers throw deep to beat them, and he'll throw an interception at some point under pressure when Feeney gets confused on a stunt.
- The cold will definitely bother the Chargers -- at least their receivers, defensive backs and special teams.
- The more I watched L.A. on film, the more I saw cracks of undisciplined and mistake-prone play they were eventually able to overcome because of their talent gap in better game conditions and against weak-minded opponents. You can get away with gaffes against the circus-like Steelers in Pittsburgh and the offensively-challenged Broncos and Ravens. But to beat the Patriots at Gillette, you basically have to play mistake-free. The Chargers just don't do that with enough consistency yet. It feels like they're a year away.