With Charlie McAvoy likely set to return Saturday, who’s odd man out on Bruins blue line?

All season long, Bruce Cassidy has tabbed Boston’s overabundance of NHL-ready defensemen on the roster as a “luxury” rather than an inconvenience.

Indeed, it’s a good problem to have when your club has seven or eight talented blue liners for six starting spots, although the quandary hasn’t presented much of an issue to Cassidy and his staff so far — with injuries preventing Boston from rolling out its full roster for the first 44 games of the 2018-19 campaign.

Starting with Torey Krug’s ankle injury that he suffered in the postseason and compounded by injuries to Charlie McAvoy (concussion) and Kevan Miller (broken hand) later in October, a source of strength for Boston divulged into a patchwork unit come November — with youngsters like Jeremy Lauzon and Connor Clifton routinely logging 20-plus minutes of ice time.

Slowly but surely, Boston’s blue line started to take shape in the later weeks of December, with Charlie McAvoy standing as the final piece waiting to return after missing the past seven games due to a foot infection.

With the 21-year-old skater practicing without restrictions for the past three days — it seems as though McAvoy is in line to rejoin his teammates for Saturday’s crucial road matchup against the Maple Leafs.

It’s a great development for the Bruins, who will benefit from the 21-year-old defenseman’s “one-man breakout” abilities against a Leafs club with plenty of firepower of its own — and an overdue headache for Boston’s bench boss.

“It’s trending that way,” Cassidy said of McAvoy’s potential return on Saturday. “We’ll officially announce tomorrow. Let’s get through pregame skate, it may be an optional. Then the obvious question is who comes out. Until he declares himself in, I don’t want to go down that road. Today, we practiced a certain way, so you can probably draw your own conclusions.”

Based on Friday’s pairings during practice, it would appear that John Moore would be the odd man out — with the veteran D-man skating with Steven Kampfer, who has not suited up in a game since Dec. 23 since both Zdeno Chara and Miller were cleared from their respective ailments.

McAvoy returned to his usual top-pairing spot alongside Chara, while both  Torey Krug and Brandon Carlo were reunited on Boston’s second pairing. Both Matt Grzelcyk and Kevan Miller remained together to round out the likely starting group for Saturday’s game.

However, Cassidy did not explicitly state that Moore would be the one sitting for Saturday if McAvoy is good to go, but did narrow it down to one of the club’s left-shot defensemen.



“(McAvoy) goes in the right side, probably come down to Grizz or Moore on the left side that would come out that way to balance — three lefts, three rights. We’ll know tomorrow, but it’s certainly looking like he’ll get in.”

The only two B's blueliners to log at least 40 games, both Moore and Grzelcyk have performed admirably with heavier workloads this season, but both are expected to lose some minutes with McAvoy’s return, especially on special teams.

Moore and Grzelcyk have earned more reps on Boston’s second power-play unit due to McAvoy’s absence — with both of Moore’s goals this season coming off of just 16 minutes of time on the man advantage.

Grzelcyk (71:52 of time on the power play) is less threatened to lose time with McAvoy’s return, although Moore has also increased his value as a reliable penalty killer — leading all B’s skaters in PK TOI at 98:43.

During that time, Moore has been out on the ice for eight goals against (and one shorthanded goal for), while both Chara (77:19 TOI) and Carlo (94:19) have been out on the ice for 11 goals against. Obviously, the expectation is that both Chara and Carlo are tasked with tougher assignments against the opposition’s top power-play unit, but it can’t be understated the role that Moore has taken in his first year with the Bruins.

“Both contribute on each one,” Cassidy said of Moore and Grzelcyk’s value on special teams. “First group is obviously Torey on the power play. First PK is obviously Zee, Carlo and Miller. So they’re secondary on both.

“Johnny’s got two power play goals for us in not a lot of time, so you can’t overlook that. Grizz does play on the second unit. With Charlie coming in, he’s a second-unit guy. We’re getting one back and Charlie can kill too. However the situation plays out, I think we have enough balance that our special teams should remain relatively strong.”

When it comes to looking at both Grzelcyk and Moore from a 5v5 perspective, here’s how both defensemen stand:

Grzelcyk: 700:34 of 5v5 TOI — 51.52 Corsi For Percentage / Plus-24 shot differential / Plus-6 goal differential / Minus-15 scoring chances differential

Moore: 664:58 of 5v5 TOI — 50.12 Corsi For Percentage / Minus-5 shot differential / Minus-2 goal differential / Minus-14 scoring chances differential

The stats seem to favor Grzelcyk, who also had fewer starts in the offensive zone (53.62 percent) than Moore (57.58), meaning Grzelcyk would likely have to work a bit harder to generate the more favorable possession stats that he’s accrued.

Another factor working in Grzelcyk’s favor is the rapport he’s developed on Boston’s third D pairing with Miller. Since the start of last season, the Grzelcyk-Miller pairing has generated a strong 52.86 Corsi For Percentage together — along with a plus-17 goal differential. Pretty good stuff.

While Moore has shown some promise with Krug as of late, one would think that Krug would rejoin his regular pairing with Carlo — a duo that has generated a 53.66 Corsi For Percentage and a plus-6 goal differential since last season.

Simply put, it seems as though all signs point to Moore being the first man out of the rotation once McAvoy is given a clean bill of health. But given Cassidy’s willingness to tinker with his roster based on matchups, one would expect Boston’s D corps to feature multiple configurations as the year carries on.

Of course, Boston’s blue line would have to stay healthy going forward as well for Cassidy to enjoy that luxury. Fingers crossed.

All stats via Corsica and Natural Stat Trick.