Imagine, if you will, the 2019 Red Sox as a house under construction.
Picture the starting rotation as the strong and sturdy foundation.
Consider the lineup representing the house's framework.
Regard the outfield defense as the protective siding.
The bench could represent the security system, and on and on.
Sounds good, right? You'd have an imposing structure, one which could successfully weather the elements that come with a 162-game season, complete with all the modern conveniences and safety measures.
It would be the nicest house in the neighborhood, as it should be for the cost of construction and materials.
Except for one thing: this McMansion is without a roof.
Having invested more than $230 million to build their dream house, the Red Sox have decided not to put anything on the top of the house. They're over budget and have decided, for now anyway, to throw a plastic tarp over everything, reasoning that it should be good enough.
Absurd, right? You wouldn't go to all the trouble of investing so much into building such a structure, and then leave it exposed, right?
And yet, that's what the Red Sox appear to be doing with their roster.
They've assembled a top starting rotation and supplemented it with depth options. They're returning the best lineup in the game, unchanged. And they again can claim the best defensive outfield defense in either league.
But the team's bullpen is full of holes and includes no proven closer.
True, it's (relatively) early in baseball's new normal -- the snails-pace, never-ending offseason. And there is growing speculation that a reunion with Craig Kimbrel could still be in the offing. Kimbrel seemingly lacks much of a market, especially after the Philadelphia Phillies signed David Robertson to a two-year, $23 million deal.
Maybe Kimbrel will be forced to lower his demands and accept a somewhat shorter (three or four years?) than the one he expected when free agency began.
But it's difficult to imagine the Sox handing out a minimum of $50 million (for a three-year deal) when they were unwilling to go to half that amount for Robertson or Andrew Miller (two years, $25 million with St. Louis). And that doesn't even begin to get into the wisdom of handing out that sort of commitment to a pitcher who has already turned 30.
Further, even if the Sox were to arrange a reunion with Kimbrel, that would still leave them one experienced high-leverage reliever short of what they had to finish last year. Joe Kelly is gone, and under a scenario in which Kimbrel is re-signed, there'd be no money left in an already stretched-to-the-max budget to sign Kelly's replacement.
And sure, it's possible that someone would emerge over the course of the season to fill Kelly's responsibilities. By, say, June, Darwinzon Hernandez or Travis Lakins could be ready to graduate into some late-inning responsibilities.
Or -- and this is less likely -- one of the handful of guys signed to minor league deals this winter could become this year's version of Ryan Brasier -- a journeyman who seemingly comes out of nowhere to become a dependable (and inexpensive) seventh- or eighth-inning weapon.
But that's a lot to ask, especially for a team with designs on becoming baseball's first repeat champions in almost two decades.
"It does seem kind of funny,'' acknowledged a major league evaluator with another team, "that they would spend all that money (on other aspects of the roster) and then leave the bullpen to chance.''
For those who would point to last October as evidence that teams can figure out their bullpen issues on the fly, understand that the regular season and postseason are radically different. The regular season is far more of a grind, with fewer off-days on the schedule and more wear-and-tear on a staff.
You can't expect Rick Porcello to periodically come in and get two tough outs in the eighth inning while still making 33 starts and contributing 200 or so innings to the rotation. It's a safe bet, too, that you won't again see Chris Sale coming in for the ninth because the closer is struggling -- as happened in the clinching Game 5 of the World Series. That's not how this works. There's too much invested in starters to ask them to pull double-duty from April through September.
In the modern game, starters provide fewer innings than ever before and a deep bullpen isn't a luxury, but more of an absolute necessity. The best teams have multiple power relievers at the back end of their bullpens. Case in point: the New York Yankees, who have closer Aroldis Chapman and set-up man Dellin Betances already but are said to be closing on a deal to re-sign free agent Zach Britton.
Britton's presence would give the Yankees three relievers capable of closing out games.
And if the notion of bringing back Kimbrel seems inadequate, what if the Sox don't do that much and instead count on either Brasier or Matt Barnes to serve as their closer in 2019? Who, then, takes over the high-leverage innings vacated by either of the two moving into the ninth-inning role?
It's understandable that the Sox are carefully watching their payroll, mindful of both the luxury tax penalties and their upcoming obligations as Xander Bogaerts, Sale and Mookie Betts inch ever-closer to free agency.
But leaving such an integral part of the roster to chance seems short-sighted at best. Having spent liberally to construct the rest of their new home, the Red Sox have an obligation to finish the job properly.
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