FOXBOROUGH — With Sunday's convincing 38-3 demolition of the bags-packed Jets, the 2018 regular season is in the books for these New England Patriots.
Now, they get to write their own history in the postseason.
Regular-season records like this year's 11-5 mark are certainly a job well done. The excellence has been sustained for so long around here many have forgotten what even a 9-7 season feels like. It has, after all, been 17 years since the last one. As someone who has covered two other teams and the league previously, 10 wins for that long is truly impossible to comprehend.
But this franchise is different than any other. Regular seasons are mere tune-ups for the real season, the postseason. That's where Patriots teams are judged.
Bill Belichick hasn't been coaching for this long, grinding the tape, parsing league rules for the slightest of edges and anticipating what will come five games down the road to celebrate 11-5 and a victory over the Jets, who will once again be searching for another coach in the offseason. Tom Brady isn't playing at age 41, avoiding nightshades like the plague, guzzling gallons of water (with TB12 electrolytes, of course) and texting Josh McDaniels at all hours of the night about that week's gameplans just to win the AFC East, win a playoff game in Foxborough and go home.
No, Belichick, Brady and the entire Patriots organization do what they do for one reason only: to win championships. The seasons that don't result in a Lombardi Trophy aren't outright failures, but there is severe disappointment at One Patriot Place.
Obviously, no one knows how this season will end. Things can change quickly due to injury (like Rob Gronkowski in 2011) or even the bounce of the ball. But with 16 games in the books, there are things that we know about this Patriots team that will factor heavily into the ultimate outcome, and there are things both the Patriots and their fans hope will happen for them to reach their ultimate goal.
WHAT WE KNOW ABOUT THE PATRIOTS
How Tom Brady goes, these Patriots will go: There's been a lot of talk about the running game and there's always much discussion about whether the defense did enough (seriously, many people criticized the defense, which allowed 17 points, in the loss to the Steelers). It's all window dressing and nonsense. When Brady plays like his MVP-caliber self, the Patriots will likely win the game. When his knee's acting up, he's feeling pressured, he's sped up and looking more to get rid of the ball than dissecting the defense, the Patriots have little chance against an average to good defense. The Patriots are 9-2 when Brady posts a passer rating of at least 90. The only losses were to the Jaguars, and the Dolphins, when Brady posted a 65.6 rating in the final 33 minutes of the game. The Patriots are 2-3 when Brady's rating is under 90. The truth is, Brady hadn't played well in the 10 quarters leading up to Sunday. He finally looked like his old self against the Jets — he didn't react to pressure, he distributed the ball all over the place and to multiple receivers. That Brady can lead this team someplace. The other guy can't, I don't care how many yards the Patriots rush for after the divisional round.
The defense will do its part: Everyone loves to kick the Patriots' defense around — that's what happens when not many want to say a critical word about Brady — but the truth of the matter is they are a lot more dependable in their production than the offense. They've kept three top-10 offenses in efficiency largely in check (Steelers, Packers, Colts), or at least enough for the offense to do its part. Since coming out of the bye week, when the Patriots installed a more aggressive third-down package with the amoeba front, New England has gone from having the 15th scoring defense to right around the fifth, depending on how today ultimately plays out.
The offense will run through James White and Julian Edelman: It was nice for Brady to throw to eight different receivers, including touchdown passes to four different players, but we haven't seen that all season. White had his load lessened for a few games, but he's going to get a ton of work in the postseason. Edelman has been playing through a painful foot injury all season, but he finally looks like he has turned the corner and will be a force in the middle of the field.
The Patriots can cover in the secondary: When the Patriots decided to go with man coverage, only the most talented offenses can give them trouble. Right now, between Stephon Gilmore and J.C. Jackson, the Patriots have something cooking on the outside, and the nickel spot is always a matchup position. From the Packers to the Vikings and the Steelers, the Patriots have shown much growth since the Chiefs game when it comes to holding their own against talented arrays of weapons. That coverage ability is allowing the pass rush to do some things.
Rob Gronkowski is a splash player only: With a season in which he caught just 47 passes and three touchdowns in the books, it's clear that Gronkowski will not be a feared weapon in the postseason. The best the Patriots can hope for is a splash play here and there, and for teams to view him as a potential threat in the red zone so he can draw coverage.
If the Patriots don't load up against the run, they're weak against it: The only times in the past 10 games when the Patriots have been decent against the run has been when they haven't feared the opponent's receivers. The Patriots have done fine against the Bills (twice), Vikings (fired coordinator never ran enough) and the Jets (twice). Against the Packers, Titans, Dolphins and Steelers, they were gashed. Bad first-down defense leads to bad third-down defense.
(Adam Richins for BSJ)_____________________