Dissecting the Jimmy Butler gamble the Celtics passed on

The Celtics will get their first look at a revamped Philadelphia 76ers squad on Christmas Day, featuring All-Star Jimmy Butler. The Sixers sit 2.5 games ahead of Boston in a tight race at the top of the Eastern Conference, largely thanks to the boost Butler has produced upon his arrival via trade.

In 17 games, the swingman has posted some of the best numbers of his eight NBA seasons, with career-highs in FG percentage (49%), 3-pt percentage (39%) and free throw percentage (87%), all of which has propelled the Sixers into a top-10 NBA offense. He’s been a strong second fiddle to Joel Embiid on most nights, while giving the Sixers the shot creator they have previously lacked in late-game situations, a weakness that haunted Philly against the Celtics last postseason. Butler’s athleticism and ball handling have opened the door for more uptempo play under Brett Brown’s system as well.  

“Unbelievable pace that they play with,” Kyrie Irving said. “Ben [Simmons], I think plays the one now, so the spacing that they have is a lot different. Obviously, not having Covington and Saric. So we just gotta play them tough and they have a great toughness and grit about them with Jimmy Butler out there. So I’m looking forward to the challenge. Any time we get the chance to go up against the best of the best, we’re considered the best of the best and I’m up for it and I know my teammates will be up for it as well.”

The presence of Butler on one of Boston’s chief rivals for the foreseeable future remains a fascinating twist of fate. The Celtics had ample opportunity to acquire the 29-year-old, dating back all the way to the 2011 NBA Draft when they mistakenly took JaJuan Johnson (out of the league in two seasons) at No. 27 (via trade with Brooklyn) over Butler who fell to Chicago at No. 30.

After Butler broke out with Tom Thibodeau’s Bulls, the Celtics were in on talks for the swingman at the trade deadline in 2016 and on draft night (C’s turned down asking price of No. 3 overall pick, which turned into Jaylen Brown) as well before he was ultimately dealt to the Timberwolves. The Celtics had their sights set on (in their opinion) better names like Kyrie Irving and Paul George at the time, which kept them from using the assets needed to fulfill Bulls’ asking price.

While Butler was readily available to the rest of the league yet again this fall after asking out of Minnesota, the Celtics, per league sources,

did not express any meaningful interest in acquiring the All-Star while he entered a contract year. A look at the Celtics' cap sheet before the season makes it easy to see why. Not only would Butler command a max contract starting at $35 million next offseason (which would make him the fourth max player on the C’s roster), trading for Butler would also have forced the Celtics to surrender valuable assets. The C’s were hesitant to move many of those pieces in a trade for a superior player in Kawhi Leonard earlier in the summer, betting instead that they would prove valuable in the present and future for them by keeping them. It’s obvious that some of those assets (Jaylen Brown, Terry Rozier, Kings pick) have depreciated in the last few months more than the front office had expected, but the plan for those have always been pooling them for a bigger name like Anthony Davis instead of a potential one-year rental like Butler.

The truth remains the Celtics front office has not been as high on Butler as many around executives, per league sources. Even if the Celtics had assurances Butler would sign a max deal to remain in Boston beyond this year after trading for him (something he has signaled already to Philadelphia), there’s a question whether he is talented enough as a building block to be an option 1 or 1A on a championship squad over the course of his career.

The Sixers have essentially made that bet with Butler after sending away Robert Covington and Dario Saric to Minnesota for him last month. That choice was an easier one for Sixers general manager Elton Brand. It was not a prohibitive asking price and the Sixers’ cap sheet next summer leaves the door open for Philadelphia to bring in a max-level player next to Butler, Joel Embiid and Ben Simmons. However, given the number of appealing destinations with max cap room though, it’s hard to find a top-tier name that would turn down the likes of Lakers and Clippers for the Sixers.

Instead, the most likely scenario is that Simmons/Embiid/Butler is the core of the future in Philadelphia. That’s a more formidable trio that this group had last year but it’s also one that the Celtics match up very well against with this current roster. Al Horford will always be a thorn in the side of Joel Embiid on the defensive end. The C’s have countless physical bodies (Morris, Horford, Semi Ojeleye, Aron Baynes) to throw at Embiid and Simmons, along with Smart to chase around Butler. With lackluster veteran depth around that Sixers group (Wilson Chandler, Mike Muscala, Amir Johnson) that’s not going to be enough to get this group past the second round against the likes of Milwaukee, Toronto or the Celtics this summer.

Improvements can be made to the core of the Sixers roster next summer, but any big addition would come at the cost of sharpshooter J.J. Redick, who is set to become an unrestricted free agent. That’s a problem given the fact that Butler is not considered a pure elite shooter and he’s already surrounded by a couple of subpar ones on the perimeter in Embiid and Simmons. The Sixers have been able to overcome that shooting imbalance with Redick and good pacing during the regular season but the sledding will become much tougher in the postseason as defenses tighten up and teams have more time to gameplan.

The pressure will be on Butler to raise his game in that kind of a role for the next few years as he enters the tail end of his prime. The Celtics opted to bring aboard pieces for fewer assets (Gordon Hayward in free agency) or younger guys with higher upside (Irving) instead of cashing in some of their chips for Butler in anticipation of his inability to reach a championship level. Ainge and company will get a firsthand look this Spring at whether their gamble against Butler’s potential will end up being a wise one.