Tracking Patriots’ incentives after Week 14: Loss to Miami eliminated a possible financial incentive for Julian Edelman

In an attempt to give you the most accurate projections of the Patriots 2019 adjusted cap number and 2019 salary cap space number -- as well as who could be in line for a big payday -- I'll track the Patriots 2018 incentives.



BACKGROUND

LTBE incentives count against the team’s salary cap in the year, they're scheduled to be earned. All but one (46-man active roster) NLTBE bonuses do not. Whether or not the player accomplished the feat in the prior year determines if the incentive will be considered LTBE (Likely to Be Earned) or NLTBE (Not Likely to Be Earned). By way of example, since Julian Edelman he was not active for any games in 2017 all of his 46-man active roster bonuses are considered NLTBE for this year.

Earned LTBE incentives: Since they already count against the current year's cap, earning LTBE incentives will not change the player's cap number.
Unearned LTBE incentives: When a player does not earn an LTBE incentive, his team will then receive a credit on next years' cap.
Earned NTLBE incentives: Forty-six man active roster bonuses count against current year's cap. All other earned NLBTE incentives count as a debit against next year's cap.
Unearned NLTBE incentives: When a player does not earn an NLTBE incentive, it has no impact on current year's cap or on next year's cap since the incentive was not counting against the team's salary cap.

With that in mind, let's look at each player:

* Tom Brady has five LTBE $1,000,000 incentives. They are for:

• Finishing in the Top 5 in passer rating -- Unlikely, since Brady has a passer rating of 96.8. He's currently 14th - up from 16th last week.


• Finishing in the Top 5 in completion percentage -- Unlikely, since Brady is currently completing 65.6 percent of his passes, is currently 18th - up from 21st last week.


• Finishing in the Top 5 in yards per attempt -- Unlikely, since Brady is currently 12th with a YPA of 7.76. That's down from 11th last week.


• Finishing in the Top 5 in touchdown passes -- Unlikely, since Brady remains tied for 11th with 23 touchdown passes. He's six touchdown passes behind Philip Rivers and Russell Wilson, who are tied for fourth place.


• Finishing in the Top 5 in passing yards -- Possible, since Brady is currently sixth with 3,700 passing yards. That's up from ninth last week. Brady is only 59 passing yards behind Andrew Luck.

• Scoring nine touchdowns incentive -- Possible. Gronkowski, who has scored three touchdowns, would have to score at least six touchdowns over a three-game span. He's done that twice over his career.


• Catching 70 passes -- Unlikely. Gronkowski has 43 receptions, and would have to catch at least 27 passes over a three-game span. He has never done that in his career.


• Having 1,085 receiving yards -- Unlikely. Gronkowski has 637 receiving yards, and would have to have 448 receiving yards over a three-game span. He has never done that during his career.


• Playing in 80 percent of the snaps -- Impossible. If the Patriots offense continues to average 71 snaps a game and if he were to play in 100 percent of them going forward, his play-time percentage for the year would be 77.66 percent.

• 40 percent -- Earned. If the Patriots defense continues to average 67 snaps a game and McCourty does not play a snap the rest of the season, his playing-time percentage will be 66.98 percent.


• 50 percent -- Earned for the above reason.


• 60 percent -- Earned for the above reason.


• 70 percent -- Probable since he has played in 82.6 percent of the snaps so far this year.


• 80 percent -- Probable since he has played in 82.6 percent of the snaps so far this year.

• 20 percent -- Earned. If the Patriots offense continues to average 71 snaps a game and Waddle does not play a snap the rest of the season, his play-time percentage will be 29.9 percent.


• 40 percent -- Possible. Waddle has played in 36.8 percent of the offensive snaps so far this season.


• 60 percent -- Impossible. If the Patriots offense continues to average 71 snaps a game and if Waddle were to play in 100 percent of the remaining snaps, his play-time percentage for the year would end up being 48.8 percent


• 80 percent -- Impossible for the same reason

• 55 percent worth $300,000 -- Impossible. If the Patriots defense continues to average 67 snaps a game and even if Clayborn were to play in 100 percent of them going forward, his playing-time percentage for the year would be 48.26 percent


• 60 percent worth $300,000 -- Impossible for the same reason.


• 65 percent worth $400,000 -- Impossible for the same reason.


• 75 percent worth $500,000 -- Impossible for the same reason.

• A $500,000 Pro Bowl incentive -- Unlikely, given that one can make the case that Kyle Van Noy has played better this season.


• A $500,000 All-Pro incentive -- Unlikely, given the performance of other linebackers such as Khalil Mack, Bobby Wagner, and Luke Kuechly.


• A 65 percent $375,000 playing-time incentive -- Probable since even after being inactive for one game, Hightower has played in 71 percent of the Patriots' defensive snaps.


• A 70 percent $250,000 playing-time incentive -- Probable for the same reason.


• A 75 percent $250,000 playing-time incentive -- Possible for the same reason.


• An 80 percent $125,000 playing-time incentive -- Impossible. If the Patriots defense continues to average 67 snaps a game and even if Hightower were to play in 100 percent of them going forward, his play-time percentage for the year would be 76.76 percent.

• A 50 percent play-time incentive -- Probable, since White has played in 56.83 percent of the offensive snaps in 2018.


• A 60 percent playing-time incentive -- Possible for the same reason.


• 1,000 total yards from scrimmage -- Earned since White has 1,016 yards from scrimmage and is on pace to total 1,317.


• 1,200 total yards from scrimmage -- Probable since White is on pace to total 1,317 total scrimmage yards for the same reason.

• A 40 percent play-time incentive -- Impossible. If the Patriots offense continues to average 71 snaps a game and even if Burkhead were to play in 100 percent of them going forward, his playing-time percentage for the year would be 26.95 percent.


• A 50 percent playing-time incentive -- Impossible for the same reason.


• A 60 percent playing-time incentive -- Impossible for the same reason.


• 1,000 total yards from scrimmage -- Impossible, since Burkhead now has a total of 163 yards from scrimmage.


• 1,200 total yards from scrimmage -- Impossible for the same reason.

• A $350,000 Pro Bowl incentive -- Possible. Patterson leads the NFL in kickoff return average.


• A $350,000 55 percent play-time incentive -- Impossible. If the Patriots' offense continues to average 71 snaps a game and even if he were to play in 100 percent of them going forward, his playing-time percentage for the year would be 37.41 percent.


• A $350,000 70 percent play-time incentive -- Impossible for the same reason.


• A $350,000 50 receptions incentive -- Impossible. Patterson has 17 receptions and would have to average 11 catches a game the rest of the regular season. He has never caught four passes in a game as a member of the Patriots


• A $350,000 70 receptions incentive -- Impossible. Patterson has 17 receptions and would have to average 17.67 catches a game the rest of the regular season. He has never caught four passes in a game as a member of the Patriots.

• 1,057 receiving yards.


• 70 receptions plus seven TDs.


• 80 receptions plus Super Bowl appearance.

• 145.3 receiving yards over the three remaining games.


• 4.67 catches a game and a touchdown a game.


• Average catching 8 passes a game AND the Patriots win the AFC.