Handicapping where the Celtics stand in the Anthony Davis chase

The Anthony Davis rumor mill will remain a point of discussion around the league all year long but it’s not going to result in any movement over the remainder of the season.

The Pelicans are firmly in the Western Conference playoff race and, barring injuries, they will stay in the hunt through the trade deadline in February. The franchise isn’t going to give up on the possibility of keeping Davis and making a deep playoff run when he still has another guaranteed year on his deal. Decision time waits for the summer when the front office can offer him a supermax extension that would pay him over $200 million for five years.

That’s good news from a Celtics perspective. They can’t trade for him this season anyway due to the obscure Derrick Rose rule, unless they included Kyrie Irving as part of the deal (a team can’t trade for two players on Rose rule contracts. Davis and Irving are currently on Rose deals, but Irving's expires this summer). There’s no guarantee that Davis will be available on the trade market next summer but it’s a certainty that the Celtics will be pooling many of their assets to acquire the All-Star if he ends up turning down that supermax extension from New Orleans, a move that would essentially force the Pelicans’ hand into making a deal. Letting him walk away for nothing would be disasterous for the franchise.

After watching Davis erupt for 41 points in an ugly 113-100 Pelicans' loss to the undermanned Celtics on Monday night, it’s hard to envision him not opting for a better chance at playing for a winner as New Orleans dropped to 14-15 on the year. The Garden faithful tried to shower Davis with cheers in warmups and introductions and Davis did notice.

“I heard it tonight,” Davis admitted when asked about the cheers. “But I’m just focused on this team. I’m trying to do whatever I can to help this team get wins with the roster we have. It’s been a rocky season so it’s on me to try to figure it out. I know the team follows me. I’m the leader and I’ve got to be the one to make sure that we’re ready to play every night. So for me, I just go out there and play with this team and go out there and try to have fun and get wins. All I’m worried about is getting wins for this team and hopefully, we can get further than we did last year.”

Getting into the second round (where the Pelicans playoff run ended last year against the Warriors) is going to be a tall task with this underwhelming roster in a loaded Western Conference. In the meantime, the best the Celtics’ can hope for is for their assets to maintain and gain some value while the waiting game for next summer continues.

It hasn’t been a great start to the season on that front as Jaylen Brown and Boston’s treasure trove of picks for the 2019 NBA Draft are coming in far below projections thus far. It’s even led some writers nationally to wonder just how good the Celtics’ stash of assets will be when next summer arrives. As a reminder, here’s a review of what the likely movable pieces the Celtics will have at the ready when this season ends, along with the years remaining on their deals:

Movable young player assets
Jaylen Brown (1 year remaining before restricted free agency)
Jayson Tatum (2 years remaining before RFA)
Robert Williams (3 years remaining before RFA)
Semi Ojeleye (2 years remaining before RFA)
Marcus Smart (3 years remaining before unrestricted free agent)
Terry Rozier (restricted free agent, sign-and-trade possibility)

Draft compensation
2019 SAC pick (Top-1 protected)
2019 MEM pick (Top-8 protected)
2019 LAC pick (Top-14 protected)
Own first-round picks

While some of those assets have lost value in recent weeks, it’s important to consider what other squads could actually compete with Boston in constructing an appealing trade package. Let’s look at a few other top contenders to be bidding for Davis’ services next year and where things stand with each of the trade chips in those organizations.

THE CHIEF COMPETITION

Lakers

Top player assets ranked in order
Brandon Ingram (1 year remaining before restricted free agency)
Kyle Kuzma (2 years remaining before RFA)
Lonzo Ball (2 years remaining before RFA)
Josh Hart (2 years remaining before RFA)
Mo Wagner (3 years remaining before RFA)

Top Draft Assets: Own all future first round picks

Overview: With Davis hiring Rich Paul (LeBron’s agent) as his representation last summer, there’s no doubting that this will be a team lining up for the All-Star whenever he becomes available. However, like the Celtics, some key player assets in LA have taken a step backwards in value thus far in 2018-19. Ingram’s 3-point shooting has dipped to 32 percent on the year and his stats across the board have taken hits (assists, rebounds, points per game) after the arrival of LeBron James. There’s still plenty of room for untapped potential at age 21 but the presence of James has not done much to help his game.

The same middling has been in place for Ball. The point guard is hitting just 38 percent of his shots from the field and 31 percent from 3-point range and his rebounds and assists per game averages have dipped in his sophomore season. Neither player looks like a bust, but they are both far from being a surefire All-Star.

Compared to the Lakers' top prospects, Jayson Tatum is considered by several scouts that spoke to BostonSportsJournal.com as the best prospect between the Celtics and Lakers, while Jaylen Brown is considered on a similar tier to Ball and Ingram right now with no clear-cut consensus about who has a higher ceiling.

Kuzma (17.3 ppg) is the best offensive player of the Lakers' bunch right now but his upside is somewhat limited at age 23 and defense is a weakness for him. Other prospects like Hart and Wagner project to be nothing more than bench players long-term. A package of (Ingram/Ball/Kuzma) would be one of the most enticing offers the Pelicans could hypothetically fetch, but the Lakers have no elite draft capital to include in the deal beyond their own non-lottery picks. Assuming the C’s are willing to put Brown and Tatum on that table, they should be able to top LA’s best offer with a potential lottery pick (Kings or Grizzlies) to add to the mix.

Sixers

Top young player assets:
Ben Simmons (restricted free agent, sign-and-trade would be in play)
Markelle Fultz (two years left with team option)
Landry Shamet (three years left before RFA)
Zhaire Smith (three years left before RFA)

Top draft assets:
2021 unprotected first round pick from Miami
Own picks

Overview: Teaming up Davis and Joel Embiid may seem like a long shot but it’s certainly a possibility if the Sixers are willing to put Ben Simmons on the table in eventual trade talks. Whether or not that scenario happens (Simmons would have to agree to a sign-and-trade as well) remains to be seen but the 23-year-old would immediately become the best young prospect in a hypothetical trade package for the Pelicans.

We probably won't know if the Sixers are willing to go down this road anytime soon since it likely depends on how their new Big Three of Butler/Simmons/Embiid look like this postseason. Bringing in Davis could upset Embiid as well so that would need to be addressed as well. The Sixers would also have the added bonus of dangling the 2021 unprotected Miami pick, which is on track for the lottery based on the Heat’s cap sheet and lack of young talent. Fultz and Smith have very big injury question marks, while Shamet is a nice role piece on a rookie deal for the next few years. If Simmons gets put on the table, this is a trade package that the Celtics could have trouble topping, depending on where the Sacramento pick lands and how Brown looks over the final 55 games of the season. Otherwise, there’s nothing left here for Boston to worry about.

Contenders worth keeping an eye on

Warriors

Realistic movable player assets:
Draymond Green (one year remaining on deal)
Klay Thompson (unrestricted free agent)

Overview: There have been whispers about Golden State recruiting Davis so this is a team worth discussing. Trading Klay Thompson for Davis in a sign-and-trade would seem to be a long shot. Why would a guy like Thompson agree to go to New Orleans when he can get a max contract elsewhere (if the Warriors don’t want him)? Would Draymond Green and several first-round picks be enough to get the Pelicans to bite? It’s enticing to add an All-Star but those selections are going to land in the 20s and Green will be 29-years old next year. Paying max money to a guy who is averaging 6.9 ppg this year and will likely be unhappy in a losing environment is not a way to jumpstart a rebuild. The Pelicans can do better than this type of a deal and there’s really not much else on the Warriors roster that could push the needle for New Orleans here.

Raptors

Top realistic movable assets
Pascal Siakam (one year left before RFA)
OG Anunoby (one year left before RFA)
Fred Van Vleet (one year left before unrestricted free agent)

Overview: Toronto really only emerges as a possibility in a situation when Kawhi Leonard agrees to re-sign with the Raptors at the start of next summer. At that point, general manager Masai Ujiri could get very greedy and elect to move his elite young talent on cheap deals, along with future first round picks to sell the Pelicans on a quick rebuild and try to form a super team with Lowry/Leonard/Davis and whatever is leftover. Leonard re-signing in Toronto is far from a sure thing though and even if he does, the Raptors giving up their young core talent in hopes of convincing Davis to stay up north would be risky business. That’s a far bigger price than moving on from a guy like DeMar DeRozan, who had turned into a liability in the postseason, to acquire Leonard. However, the Raptors have the talent here to get into the conversation while holding on to their other All-Stars.

Searching for a star but not much to offer

Rockets

Top movable assets:
Clint Capela (four years left before unrestricted FA)
Eric Gordon (one year left before unrestricted FA)
PJ Tucker (one year left before unrestricted FA)
All of their future first round picks

Overview: The Rockets will be in desperate win-now mode this summer as Chris Paul gets a year older and James Harden firmly in his prime. They can offer Capela as the starting point for Davis as the big man is on a good contract but his upside doesn’t come close to guys like Tatum or Simmons. He’s a supporting piece on a good team, not someone you want to build around. Veterans like Gordon and Tucker should do nothing for the Pelicans as they age into their 30s on an expiring contract. Even if Daryl Morey unloads 3-4 future first round picks as part of the offer, none of those selections are guaranteed to fall in the lottery. All of that makes Houston a long shot in this race.

Clippers

Top movable assets
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
Jerome Robinson
Montrezl Harrell
A ton of sign-and-trade possibilities (Tobias Harris, Patrick Beverley, etc.)
Own first round picks

Overview: A few nice supporting pieces but unless Gilgeous-Alexander shows All-Star potential over the remainder of the year, there isn’t much to get excited about here for the Pelicans. Harrell is only signed for one more season before he’s owed a big payday and any other key pieces are going to have to be paid market value in a sign-and-trade. Pelicans can do far better from a talent standpoint.

Wildcards: Thunder/Blazers/Nuggets

In theory, any of these teams should be able to get into the conversation, but it’s pretty dangerous for them to offer up what’s needed to land Davis without assurances he would re-sign in these smaller markets. The Blazers could throw Damian Lillard or CJ McCollum into the conversation to give New Orleans a win-now guy. The Nuggets have a trio of young guards under team control for the next three years (Gary Harris, Will Barton, Jamal Murray) that could hold appeal. The Thunder could offer Paul George or Steven Adams straight up with picks and other pieces. However, it’s hard to see any of these franchises going that route without assurances from Davis. Moving Davis for key pieces on their roster provides no guarantee that any of these teams will emerge as contenders and risks an All-Star walking away for nothing after one season. It worked for Oklahoma City with George, but the price being paid will be far greater here for Davis in any hypothetical deal.

Ranking the non-Celtic Davis contenders based on assets

1. Lakers
2. Sixers
3. Raptors
4. Wildcards
5. Warriors
6. Clippers
7. Rockets

Do the Celtics top all of the teams on this list?

For now, yes. Tatum and Brown and all of the 2019 draft picks (along with other roster filler) should be able to top the best realistic hypothetical packages from all of these teams. It's also likely an offer of Tatum and Brown won't even be necessary. No one can combine the collection of young talent and draft compensation that Boston has at their disposal and still have enough left over to contend right away.

The bigger question though is what teams will be willing to put everything on the table for one year of Davis with no guarantees about re-signing. It’s hard to think Ainge will include Tatum without getting some strong signals from the All-Star’s camp. The hope for Boston is that a package of Brown, Rozier/Smart, young cheap filler and first round picks would get the job done but unless the Kings and Grizzlies take a serious nose dive in the standings, it's easy to see other teams on this list topping that offer. The guess here is Tatum may have to be the piece included in place of Brown to seal the deal for Boston.

That debate will be a looming storyline for next summer but Celtics fans can rest easy for now. If Davis does indeed become available, the Celtics are still in the best position to acquire him on paper. The ball should be in Ainge's court whenever Davis does hit the market.