In this weekend edition of the NFL Notebook, we get more insight into the depth of the relationship between Devin McCourty and Bill Belichick, explain who we voted for when it comes to this year’s Ron Hobson Media Good Guy Award, check out some amazing new numbers, and prepare you for “Guard Your Desk” season in the NFL. But first, we explain why good health is just as important as “momentum” when it comes to this time of year.
1. Momentum is an overused phrase at this point on the calendar, but if previous seasons are any indication, momentum really boils down to health plus good timing. The teams that do the best job at this time of year are playing their best football, but they’re also the healthiest.
“Health is the most important thing at this time of year for a team you know is going to the playoffs. If you go back and look at the Super Bowl winning teams, the healthiest ones in December and January have the best chance to get to the show,” one personnel man said Friday.
Last year’s Eagles might be the exception to the rule, but more often than not, health remains the most important factor for any team hoping to make a playoff run. To that end, the Patriots went into this weekend’s game against the Dolphins as healthy as they’ve been all year. New England had two players on the injury report Friday (Dwayne Allen and Stephon Gilmore), and only one of those players was limited. For historical reference, the closest comparison for New England is likely 2016, when they were without Rob Gronkowski, but had an otherwise mostly healthy roster down the stretch and into the postseason.
“People buy into what that strength and conditioning coach is doing up there,” said an NFC scout of the 2018 Patriots. “The medical staff up there, they don’t get enough credit for their success. Two guys on the injury report in mid-December for a team going to the playoffs? That’s a good sign.”
The flip side is that the Patriots have also caught some teams at the right time when it comes to health. They faced the Bears when they had a dinged-up Khalil Mack, while the Vikings were also at less than 100 percent last week. They missed quarterback Josh Allen in the first game against Buffalo, caught Houston's Deshaun Watson at the start of the year when he was coming off an ACL injury, and this weekend, they won’t have to worry about Miami cornerback Xavien Howard, the NFL’s leader in interceptions, because of a bad knee.
Health is a tenuous topic in the league, and with a New England team that has seen Julian Edelman and Gronkowski pop up on the injury report this year, it's a reminder that things can go south pretty quickly. But so far, everything has gone as well as could be expected. Really, at the end of the day, with the margin for error in the postseason so slim, good health (and a dash of fortuitous timing when it comes to your opponents’ injury report) can ultimately be the sort of difference-maker that helps put a team over the top. If they stay healthy the rest of the way, could it be the sort of thing that provides a playoff boost for the 2018 Patriots? We’ll see how it all plays out.
2. Despite the struggles of Matt Patricia in Detroit, this season figures to go down as one of the best years for the Bill Belichick coaching tree in recent history. Bill O’Brien has the Texans on a nine-game win streak, and they can clinch the AFC South with a win this weekend. Meanwhile, Mike Vrabel has the Titans playing significant December football games while still challenging for a playoff spot. (You can argue whether or not Vrabel should be included as part of the Belichick tree, but you can’t deny that a sizable portion of his coaching philosophy springs from his time with Belichick.) And with a late-season run, Patricia could end up finishing somewhere in the neighborhood of 5-7 wins. In total, their final combined record this year should be at or above .500, which should be the best year for any group of ex-Belichick assistants. (The best years are debatable, but from my perspective, I’d probably go with 2006, when Eric Magnini went 10-6 with the Jets, Charlie Weis went 10-3 at Notre Dame and Romeo Crennel went 4-12 with the Browns.)
Locker room was wild after that game.
RT @ZackCoxNESN: Tom Brady recalled celebrating “like we won five Super Bowls” after the Patriots beat the Dolphins in OT in 2003: “I remember the bus ride leaving, it was pretty cool. We were flipping people off. It was out of control." pic.twitter.com/4K3UZlAVZR
— #FreePhillipDorsett (@ftbeard_17) December 7, 2018