Five thoughts on Nathan Eovaldi's return to the Red Sox

With the Red Sox and Nathan Eovaldi officially in agreement on a four-year, $68-million deal Thursday, here are some thoughts on the signing and its impact.

1.Risk? Of course. But worth it.

Some have questioned the wisdom of giving such a contract to a pitcher who has undergone two Tommy John surgeries and has only pitched more than 155 innings once in his seven-year major league career.

But every major league pitcher carries with him some degree of risk. Rare is the pitcher who is without physical issues at some point in his career. And there's some body of evidence which suggests that having already undergone two surgeries on his elbow, Eovaldi actually stands a better chance of maintaining his health.

As for his lack of track record, some of that, naturally, is related to his physical issues. He missed all of 2017 and parts of 2016 and 2018 because of the second Tommy John surgery.

Eovaldi's career numbers (44-53, 4.16) don't profile as a top-end starter. But then, the Red Sox believe that Eovaldi turned a corner last season with the development of his cutter, which deepened his repertoire. That and confidence that his surgically repaired elbow was sound allowed him to have a strong showing with the Sox for three months.

At 28 -- he'll turn 29 before the 2019 season -- the Red Sox feel the best is yet to come for Eovaldi.

2. The rotation now has some stability to it for the next few years.

Chris Sale is eligible for free agency after 2019, as is Rick Porcello. That's 40 percent of Boston's rotation, leaving the potential for gaping holes going forward.

But now the Red Sox have Eovaldi and David Price under control through 2022 and Eduardo Rodriguez under control through 2021. That's the foundation of a solid rotation even without Sale and Porcello.

That's particularly important when you look at the Red Sox' minor league system. Of their two most highly-regarded prospects, lefty Jay Groome will miss much of 2019 while recovering from Tommy John surgery while Tanner Houck, the team's No. 1 pick in 2017, had a mediocre first full season in pro ball. In a best-case scenario, the Sox could expect some contributions in the second half of 2020.

The only pitcher in the upper levels of the system who might make an impact in 2019 is Darwinzon Hernandez, who, while promising, has made five appearances above Single-A and who some view as a late-inning power reliever rather than a starter.

With no high-end starters on the immediate horizon, the Red Sox saw a chance to secure a pitcher in the prime of his career at relatively reasonable dollars, and one with whom they were familiar.

3. The Red Sox have something of a roster crunch with their starters.

Sale, Price, Porcello, Eovaldi and Rodriguez represent the starting five. Steven Wright is a strong No. 6 option, and in reserve, they have lefty Brian Johnson and righty Hector Velazquez.

That's eight major league-proven starters.

But here's where it gets interesting: Wright and Johnson are out of major league options, meaning they have to remain on the major league roster on risk being exposed to waivers. Velazquez has an option remaining, providing some roster flexibility.

But even if the Sox keep Johnson and Wright on the 25-man roster, that accounts for two of the six bullpen spots, leaving just four spots for more "traditional'' relievers -- i.e. high-leverage set-up men and a closer.

4. The Sox are obviously comfortable blowing right past any and all luxury tax thresholds.

Getting Eovaldi back in the fold takes them to about $220 million, when you take into account in-place commitments, projected salaries for their long list of arbitration-eligible players, the $23.25 million handed to Eovaldi and Steve Pearce and yet another year of Pablo Sandoval obligations.

That's already well past the first threshold of $206 million, before the Sox even restock the bullpen. Figuring that an experienced closer and set-up man will cost them somewhere between $10-$20 million for 2019, the Sox could open the season with a payroll close to $240 million, which would take well over the second set threshold of $226 million.

After that, there's just one more frontier left: the final threshold of $246 million.

Left unanswered is how willing ownership will be to blow past that last marker during the season in the event that debilitating injuries strike or underperformance issues arise that compromise the team's ability to defend its title.

What's clear for now is that the Sox are not being restricted by mandates from ownership to limit spending in any significant way.

5. Will the Red Sox experiment at all with their staff?

In an era of "openers'' and multi-inning relievers, Alex Cora now has some options.

He's already acknowledged that he will be extremely protective of his starters, most of whom pitched almost until November. That means reining in innings for Sale, Price, Porcello and, certainly given his injury history, Eovaldi himself.

Here's where Wright, Velazquez and Johnson can come in handy -- by providing spot starts here and there to give additional rest to the veterans who will be eased into the regular season. And, for what it's worth, the early schedule is not an easy one: the Red Sox open on the West Coast and unlike most years, will not have an off-day for their first 11 days of the season.

Eovaldi and Rodriguez could even get some bullpen work early in the season as they build up arm strength.