Which way will Celtics go on Guerschon Yabusele's option?

Rookie contracts are one of the more team-friendly elements of the NBA collective bargaining agreement. They allow teams like the Celtics to pay elite players, including Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown, far under market value for the first four years of their career, based on their draft spots. For fringe first-round picks at the bottom of an NBA roster though, only two of the four years of a rookie deal come with guaranteed money, which can lead to some uncertain times. That’s the situation Guerschon Yabusele finds himself in as the deadline to pick up his $3.1 million third-year rookie option for 2019-20 awaits on Wednesday.

Generally, the vast majority of first-round picks get their rookie options picked up by their team for the first three years of their deal, but that trend has started to shift in recent years in a tight free-agent market, particularly among teams facing salary and luxury tax issues.

For instance, Warriors big man Kevon Looney had his fourth-year team option declined last fall despite being a regular contributor off the Warriors bench. He was due to make just over $2 million dollars, but that would have amounted to closer to $6 million for the Warriors due to luxury tax penalties. Other lottery names (Jahlil Okafor, Mario Hezonja) and low first round picks (Rashad Vaughn, Chris McCullough, Brice Johnson) from 2015 and 2016 draft classes have had their options declined. Former Celtic James Young also had his fourth-year option declined in October 2016. Outside of Hezonja, all of these guys have failed to prove themselves as NBA rotation players. The same is true for Yabusele as he starts the second year of his contract.

Which way will the Celtics go with the big man? League sources tell Bostonsportsjournal.com that the Celtics are leaning

against picking up the option for multiple reasons.

A crowded frontcourt

The 22-year-old power forward has started the season on the outside of a crowded rotation, which was an expected development given the depth of the C’s frontcourt with Al Horford, Aron Baynes, Marcus Morris and Daniel Theis. Fellow deep reserves Semi Ojeleye and Robert Williams have shown more positive glimpses of production than Yabusele in his 15 minutes of action this year, leaving the 6-foot-8 big man with limited ways of improving his value to the team from an on-court perspective. Yabusele is not ready to help this team right now, and the question the Celtics have to answer by tomorrow night is whether he will be able to help them in some form next season for production that’s worth $3.1 million.

Limited resources and the luxury tax

$3.1 million is far from a big salary in the NBA, but it is a sizable chunk of change for a team that’s expected to be well within the luxury tax next season. Every dollar spent will cost Boston anywhere from $1.50 to $3.25 in totality, depending on how far above the luxury tax threshold the team ends up. With Marcus Smart already signed, Kyrie Irving set to make over $30 million annually in his next deal and several other key free agents waiting to be inked, paying Yabusele $3.1 million to sit at the end of the bench would be a costly mistake that could limit Boston.

So will Yabusele actually be a help to this team next year? A look at the team’s frontcourt situation makes it tough to see, even if he builds on some of his promising potential. Here’s a look at the team’s contract situation:  

Under contract for 2019

Jayson Tatum
Gordon Hayward
Robert Williams
Semi Ojeleye (non-guaranteed)

Player option

Al Horford
Aron Baynes

Restricted free agent

Daniel Theis

Unrestricted free agent

Marcus Morris

Where exactly will Yabusele fit into that group? Horford seems like a lock to come back (whether it’s at his player option number or on a longer contract with a reduced annual value remains to be seen). Baynes may be looking for a raise but can lock himself in for just over $6 million, a good bet given his age and desire to win.

That leaves Morris and Theis to contend with, both of whom have far more value than Yabusele. Morris is going to be a long shot to keep, but Theis will be an appealing piece for the C’s to retain long-term due to his age and ability to stretch the floor and defend. The question is whether the C’s will be able to afford to keep him in restricted free agency, something that is probably helped right now by his injury woes (limiting the value he will build around the league). Still, he’s going to be looking for a raise from his current minimal deal, and that’s where money spent on Yabusele’s contract could be better served. Even in the case that Yabusele blossoms in the face of injuries this year, it’s hard to envision him being higher than the third and fourth big off the bench next year. The C’s might be able to do just as well or better from a production standpoint with a guy making a veteran’s minimum salary.

Yabusele’s situation is a tough one due to situational circumstances as well. He was picked probably a bit early (No. 16) than expected on draft night since the C’s needed to stash a player, and he was open to doing so, playing in China during the 2016-17 season. Since Yabusele’s salary is attached to his draft position, his odds of getting that option picked up are actually hurt.  League sources indicate the opinions of Yabusele are mixed inside the C’s organization, with questions remaining about his long-term potential as an NBA player. Brad Stevens did speak highly of the big man though earlier this month about his role.

“I think he’s done a good job, and I thought summer league he did a good job,” Stevens said of Yabusele’s play in the preseason. “We’ve asked him to play a lot of 4 in the games, some 5 in practice, and he’s bounced back and forth. But one of the things about Guersch was last year there were multiple games where we didn’t have guys available of whatever the case may be, and when we started Guersch, there wasn’t a whole lot of dip with regard to our production as a team. So his ability to kind of play those different roles, play at the 4, play at the 5, be a guy you can throw in with any different lineup, has proved to be very important. As we move forward—obviously we have a deep team, and that’s a big challenge—but as we move forward we really value him.”

Fallout of the decision

Declining Yabusele’s option for 2018-19 wouldn’t preclude the Celtics from bringing him back beyond next season, but it’s not a good sign for his long-term future in Boston. The Celtics (or a team he is a traded to) would be able to offer him up to $3.1 million to retain him after the season per CBA rules, and that’s a number that Yabusele may not be able to find on the open market anyway. The Warriors made that bet with Looney when they declined his option and he signed for a minimum deal this summer. Yabusele could be facing a similar situation himself next summer since he won’t be seeing much playing time to improve his value.

The bottom line here for Boston is that contending is the No. 1 priority over the next few years for this group. While grooming young players is important moving forward, there are enough of them ahead of Yabusele on the roster already for the long-term (Rob Williams, Semi Ojeleye) that the need to lock in the Frenchman for now just isn’t there. He may or may not be back beyond this year, but added financial flexibility and roster spots are the bigger priority right now for 2019-20. The odds are that he’ll join a group that includes Dragan Bender (Suns) and Henry Ellenson (Pistons) to have his option declined for next year.