The Celtics point guard depth chart has been an embarrassment of riches for the franchise over the past couple seasons, and that trend seems likely to continue for at least one more year. The position will remain elite for the foreseeable future following Kyrie Irving’s surprise announcement that he plans on re-signing with the Celtics. However, his declaration adds an interesting wrinkle to what will already be an intriguing offseason for Danny Ainge in 2019.
Tough decisions will need to be made next July with a handful of key rotation players heading to free agency, and the biggest one among them is restricted-free-agent to-be Terry Rozier. The 6-foot-3 guard has been one of the C’s top players in training camp after his breakout third season in green, and it has reached the point where Brad Stevens is publicly declaring that he needs to find more minutes for him.
Keeping Rozier as an insurance policy next summer was always going to be a sound play in case Irving bolted, but the fact that the All-Star no longer appears to be a flight risk changes the equation a little bit now for Boston’s front office. The Celtics have until opening night to reach a potential contract extension with the 24-year-old, otherwise Rozier will hit the open market next summer. What kind of impact will Irving’s announcement have on Rozier’s future in Boston? Let’s break down the factors in play for the organization and the player.
WHY KEEPING EVERYONE PROBABLY WON'T WORK
There’s nothing in the CBA rulebook that will prevent the Celtics from retaining Irving, Marcus Smart and Rozier beyond this season. They have Bird Rights on Irving and Rozier, so they can sign both for whatever they want. The problem for Ainge will be the remainder of the payroll. Irving will earn $32.7 million next year on a max deal, Smart is set to make $12.5 million and Rozier is in line to earn a starting salary in the $15-18 million range, according to one league source.
Even if we project Rozier to earn a conservative $15 million, that’s still $60 million tied up between three players in the backcourt if all are retained by Boston. Throw in Gordon Hayward and Al Horford’s max salaries, and that’s potentially $120 million tied up between five guys. The luxury tax threshold is projected to be $132 million for 2019-20, so the C’s would easily be tens of millions over that once they fill out the rest of the roster.
Celtics ownership will certainly be willing to swallow a big bill, and there is a possibility for one year (2019-20) that Rozier/Smart/Irving could be a feasible combination while Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum are still on their rookie deals. That equation will change in the summer of 2020 though when Brown becomes a restricted free agent. Paying him sticker price will be a prohibitive cost if all the other guards remain in the fold.
ROZIER'S EXTENSION DEADLINE
The two sides have had preliminary discussions regarding an extension, but the Celtics understandably will be a bit hesitant in committing to fair market price at this juncture. They have not signed a rookie extension with a player since 2009 (Rajon Rondo), and they generally have preferred to let the market set the price.
While Rozier said all the right things about returning to his bench role last year, it remains to be seen whether the point guard would be willing to sign a long-term extension with the Celtics knowing that he would be backing up Irving for the foreseeable future.
“I’m not a selfish guy,” Rozier told BSJ last spring. “Obviously, I don’t want to be off the bench my whole career. That’s the only thing. I’m not trying to push nobody out, I’m not trying to try to put pressure on the organization or anything like that. That’s not me. I like to win. I like being here. I like the organization and the fans. I love everything about the Celtics.”
That stance, combined with the fact that the free agent market is expected to be very friendly to players next summer in the face of a cap hike ($109 million), makes the odds of Rozier and the Celtics reaching an extension this fall slim, according to one source.
WHAT ABOUT A TRADE?
Irving’s commitment should make the prospect of moving Rozier a bit easier for the front office to swallow during this upcoming season. However, Rozier’s importance to this team can’t be understated, and it seems virtually impossible to make a basketball neutral move for 2018-19 with the point guard. The teams that need their point guard of the future (Phoenix, Orlando) don’t have inexpensive win-now players that they would be willing to move as we covered here. The possibility of getting a third team involved is always out there, but Rozier’s modest salary ($3.05 million) and the C’s luxury tax bill make their ability to take on additional money in any trade very limited.
If they deal Rozier now, it would probably be for a draft pick, and unless it’s a likely lottery selection, it’s hard to justify taking away such a huge part of the team’s bench with no clear replacement. Brad Wanamaker could be thrust into a bigger role, but he seems to be a pretty healthy step below Rozier so far this preseason.
THE CASE FOR KEEPING ROZIER
Even if Rozier does not want to stick around in Boston past this season, the team still controls his fate in restricted free agency. They can match any offer he gets, and, if he doesn’t want to sign long-term in Boston, they could luck out and have him sign a qualifying offer. The prospect of Rozier settling for that is unlikely in this free agent market (he should have many suitors), and teams will know that the Celtics may hesitate to match a sizable offer sheet.
Still, if the Celtics want to land another big fish (i.e. Anthony Davis) next summer, the prospect of using Rozier as part of a trade package could be more appealing. He has more offensive upside than Marcus Smart and may be a more marketable high-priced piece if the Celtics can lock him up on a favorable deal.
The possibility also remains that the team prefers to keep Rozier over Smart for the long haul. In that scenario, the Celtics could try to move Smart to a team with cap room next summer (so the C’s would not have to take back equal salary) and then re-sign Rozier to a long-term deal. From a fit standpoint, Smart is the more likely piece to stick around (due to his defensive fit and flexibility) but Rozier could change that equation with another strong year.
NO DECISION IMMINENT
The most likely scenario for the C’s in the interim is that nothing changes for Rozier during this season. They planned on keeping him anyway to maximize their contending chances this year, and barring a sizable uptick in compensation from a suitor, they will move forward with that plan after Irving’s commitment. Injuries and other variables around the league could change the C’s thinking on that, but I expect them to keep all options open as next summer approaches. The odds are against Rozier staying in green long-term in the wake of Irving’s commitment, but there are still several paths the team could take to retain him.
Leftover Thoughts Around the Association
- The Jimmy Butler trade saga has entered week three with no ending in sight. The usual suspects (Clippers, Heat) remain as the main suitors to this point, but with Tobias Harris and Josh Richardson reportedly being kept off the table, for now, it’s no surprise that the Wolves aren’t rushing to make a move. The Clippers have a better collection of supporting pieces to offer up if those key names aren’t offered but you have to wonder when Wolves owner Glen Taylor will put out an ultimatum to Tom Thibodeau to get some kind of deal done and eliminate the distraction heading into the season.
- Tough break for the Spurs as rookie guard Lonnie Walker suffered his second meniscus tear in two years during the past week. He’ll undergo surgery on Monday and Adrian Wojnarowski of ESPN.com reports that he will be out for a projected 6-8 weeks.
- The Thunder will have their work cut out for them at the start of the regular season. Russell Westbrook (knee surgery) is expected to miss some time and Andre Robertson will be out for another two months after experiencing a setback with his rehab after suffering a patella tendon rupture last year. The move will put a lot of pressure on trade addition Dennis Schroder to pick up the slack with the starters out of the gate.
- Interesting maneuver by Patrick McCaw to decline to sign the qualifying offer with the Warriors by the league deadline this past week. He remains a restricted free agent now but must wait for some team to sign him to an offer sheet and hope the Warriors won’t match (due to luxury tax penalties.) It’s a risky gamble given the lack of cap space on the open market right now. Some teams have their mid-level exception remaining but most rosters are full for the moment. Perhaps McCaw is waiting for some team to get desperate after an injury.
- The Sixers will be missing key wing addition Wilson Chandler for the entire preseason after he suffered a knee injury.
