Examining lineup possibilities: Would it make sense to bring Jaylen Brown off the bench?

This is part 2 of the BSJ series examining potential starting lineups ahead of training camp. For Part 1 of the series click here.

One year after the Celtics overhauled their roster in the summer of 2017, Brad Stevens will have a little more time on his hands for planning ahead of training camp this September. Boston is returning all of their top 11 players from last season’s core, and that group is expected to be healthy together next month for the first time since last fall.

The impressive collection of depth creates several possibilities for Stevens to choose from on a night-to-night basis during the 2018-19 season. The coach showed a willingness to mix things up based on matchups through the season, something Boston Sports Journal reported early during training camp last year.

That trend is expected to continue this year, but there is still uncertainty about the composition of the default starting group. Will the Celtics stay with a traditionally big lineup or regularly begin games with small-ball? If the Celtics start big, which wing comes off the bench? Over the coming weeks, we’ll take a closer look at each of the possibilities to get a sense of what direction the team might be leaning.

SMALL-BALL STARTING LINEUP

PG: Kyrie Irving
SG: Gordon Hayward
SF: Jayson Tatum
PF: Al Horford
C: Aron Baynes

POTENTIAL POSITIVES

Rebounding and frontline defense: The Celtics’ regular-season defense was at its best last year with Aron Baynes and Al Horford on the floor together. Baynes provides great rim protection in the paint and Horford remains one of the most underrated defenders in the league. Pairing them together to start games will take some pressure off of Horford (against traditional centers) since Baynes is ready and willing to absorb some of that beating. Boston’s defensive rebounding also fell off a cliff when Baynes (or another traditional center) was not on the floor last year. Putting him in there at the onset helps to rectify that issue for the start of each half.  

Maximizes offense with starters: While the prospect of having five elite 3-point shooters on the floor to start the game is enticing, aren’t the Celtics better served to save that kind of look until crunch time? The Warriors followed a similar path in recent years with a traditional center getting the nod and bringing Andre Iguodala off the bench. By moving Baynes into the starting five in place of the wing, the C’s have one fewer player who needs shots in the mix. It will be tough to make sure there are enough shots to go around if the C’s go small to start, and it also leaves the bench with a lack of elite creators. Balancing that out by bringing a double-digit scorer with Brown off the pine should reduce the offensive drop-off for the second unit.

Creates super athletic bench with good floor balance: Marcus Smart, Terry Rozier, Jaylen Brown, Marcus Morris and Daniel Theis. That’s a heck of a second unit for Stevens to work with from a defensive standpoint, and it should be capable of shutting down bench opponents on a nightly basis. Rozier and Brown have terrific athleticism for their positions, while Smart brings intangibles and versatility that makes this group a fun idea to work with. It’s not clear whether Stevens will go with five-man bench units anyway (as he staggered in at least one starter for a lot of last season), but he certainly has the depth to do it with this roster. This is a group that makes a lot of sense on paper and shouldn’t go through too many offensive lulls.  

POTENTIAL NEGATIVES

Defending speedy guards/shooters: This is a major concern when looking at this unit. Kyrie Irving is a capable defender but obviously isn’t known for his work on that end and tends to drift at times. Tatum did far better than expected last year when given a guard assignment, but that generally was the weakest out of the three opposing players. Hayward has good versatility at 6-foot-8, but he has spent the majority of his career covering small forwards instead of shooting guards. Brown clearly has the best athleticism of the bunch, making him the ideal piece to chase around a top perimeter scorer in the opposing top unit. Brown also has the speed to handle opposing point guards at times (when the C’s try to hide Irving on another player), but that’s not a luxury this lineup would provide.  

Puts a lot of defensive pressure on Gordon Hayward: Even coming back from injury, he’s probably the best wing defender outside of Tatum and Irving. That fact means he would, by default, get the toughest wing assignments on most nights if the C’s brought Brown off the bench. That’s not necessarily a bad thing if Hayward’s mobility is back at full strength, but it’s not a sure thing to expect for the start of this season. The team surely wants to ease Hayward back into action to some degree, so putting that kind of responsibility on him out of the gate might be a bit daunting.

VERDICT: Will we see during the season?

My gut says no, primarily due to the defensive matchups on the perimeter. While Hayward may be the better overall defender (when healthy), Brown is certainly the more athletic option out of the duo and his youth and speed will be a necessity on most nights against elite perimeter scorers. With the bench already stacked with strong backcourt defenders (Marcus Smart, Terry Rozier), there is no need to insert another talented defender into that mix. The backline of Horford and Baynes will help protect the paint when quicker players get by the likes of Hayward and Irving, but Stevens should want to protect against recurring dribble penetration all year long. Staying away from this lineup and sticking with Brown at shooting guard should help on that front.