Miguel's Mailbag: Thoughts on Edelman, future cap space, and some trade possibilities

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Question from Geoff Clarke: Can the Patriots recover guaranteed signing/roster bonus money from (Julian) Edelman due to his suspension? Would that recovered money be added to their cap?

Answer: See my piece on Julian Edelman's suspension for everything you want to know about its salary cap impact. Please note -- I wrote this in June so some of the references (Troy Niklas) are now outdated.

Question from Niall Curran: Miguel, do you think front office is looking at restructuring any more contracts to free up some more 2018 cap space and, if so, whose current contract is most likely to have the most positive impact on space without risking too much dead money in future years.

Answer: Yes. Since his deal has currently no guaranteed money, it would be possible to redo Dwayne Allen's deal by lowering his salaries in exchange for the opportunity to earn the money via NLTBE (Not Likely to Be Earned) incentives

Question from Dan Parker: In your opinion, is it a successful strategy for a team to pay max/close to max contracts for non-qb players?

Answer: Yes, as long as the player continues to play at a level commensurate with his cap number.

Question from Yirt: What causes the increase in the cap? It seems to be steady at a 6-8 (percent) increase the past couple of years. Does that mean the NFL is making more money despite the decrease in ratings? Is this sustainable? when is the current tv deal up and what will the next one look like?

Answer: A increase in revenue increases the league cap. As you can see in the below table, the league cap has been increasing between six and eight percent each year for the last five years.
[table id=117 /]

I expect the NFL's revenue to continue to increase -- every time the NFL announces a sponsorship agreement renewal, it's for more money. ESPN's deal with the NFL is through the 2021 season while the TV deals with NBC, CBS, DirectTV, and Fox are through the 2022 season. If the NFL remains the leading show on TV, I expect the renewals to be for more money.

Question from Colin Barker Could/should the Patriots trade for Dante Fowler who seems persona non-grata in Jacksonville?

Answer: Could? Yes. The Patriots may have the cap space to take on Fowler's $3,638,214 salary. Trading a current Patriot or two to the Jaguars would certainly help. Should? I would pass on acquiring Fowler because I like what I have seen so far from the Patriots pass rushers. Will they? It says here no.

Question from Stephen Sheehan: What are the chances the Patriots extend Trent Brown during the season? What would be a fair contract for both sides?

Answer: Little to none. Brown and the Buccanneers' Donovan Smith are the only starting left tackles currently scheduled to hit free agency in 2019. 2019 will probably be Trent's best chance to receive a large contract. Starting left tackles are receiving deals that average at least $10 million. I don't see the Patriots paying him that type of money.

Question from Priscilla Bilz:Don't you feel that Brady would be worth dead money for the next 5 years if they just went ahead and had given him an $80 million signing bonus to keep our national treasure happy and a dummy 5-yr contract that's really 2 years?

Answer: No. An $80 million signing bonus would be prorated $16 million a year for five years. If Brady were to then retire after the 2019 season, the total dead money amount would be $48 million. At best, it could be allocated as $16 million in 2020 and $32 million in 2021. What would the numbers look like if the signing bonus was $50 million, the same amount received by Matthew Stafford in 2017? If Brady were to then retire after the 2019 season, the total dead money amount would be $30 million. At best it could be allocated as $10 million in 2020 and $20 million in 2021.

Question from Ben Millett: How come we never get to know what Belichick's contract is? How does a coaches contract affect a team's payroll?

Answer: A coach's contract does not affect a team's salary cap. Occasionally Darren Rovell does tweet out contract information about the coaches.

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