One year after the Celtics overhauled their roster in the summer of 2017, Brad Stevens will have a little more time on his hands for planning ahead of training camp this September. Boston is returning all of their top 11 players from last season’s core, and that group is expected to be healthy together next month for the first time since last fall.
The impressive collection of depth will create lots of possibilities for Brad Stevens to choose from on a night-to-night basis during the 2018-19 season. The head coach showed a willingness to mix things up based on matchups through the season, something Boston Sports Journal reported early during training camp last year.
That trend is expected to continue this year, but there is still uncertainty about the composition of the default starting group. Will the Celtics stay with a traditionally big lineup or regularly begin games with small-ball? If the Celtics start big, which wing comes off the bench?
“I do think our guys have a recognition overall that that’s not what it’s about,” Stevens told Yahoo Sports when asked about the starting five last week. “It’s about trying to be the best that we can be collectively. If we all do what we do to the best of our ability, it’ll benefit everybody individually. You only get so many chances to be a part of a special group. We’re pretty fortunate to be in this position, so we need to take advantage of it.”
So what direction will the C’s go in? Over the coming weeks, we’ll take a closer look at each of the possibilities to get a sense of what direction the team might be leaning.
Small-ball starting lineup
PG: Kyrie Irving
SG: Jaylen Brown
SF: Gordon Hayward
PF: Jayson Tatum
C: Al Horford
Potential positives
Shooting everywhere: Talk about an embarrassment of riches.
All five players in this group shot above 39 percent from 3-point range in their last healthy season. It’s going to be nearly impossible for teams to defend against this group if they continue to put up those kinds of numbers on the perimeter. Help defense is going to be necessary to contain the likes of Kyrie Irving and Gordon Hayward, but who exactly can you help off of in this group? The easy answer is no one, which is what made this lineup the opening night choice of Stevens heading into last year. It remains to be seen whether Jayson Tatum (46 percent) and Jaylen Brown (39 percent) can sustain those elite numbers from downtown, but even a slight drop off for both won’t matter much. The biggest question surrounding this group during last year’s training camp was whether Brown and Tatum would be able to knock down open looks. They answered that question last year.
Switchability: Outside of Irving, there aren’t many targets to pick on for opposing offenses in this group. Tatum showed an impressive ability to stick with smaller guards while playing small forward throughout last season, and he’s adding plenty of muscle this summer that should help him against true 4s as well. Hayward was always an underrated defender in Utah, and he’ll be able to guard multiple positions at any point. The same rings true for Brown. With Horford anchoring the back line, this will be far from Boston’s best defensive lineup, but there is more than enough talent here to be an above-average group on the defensive end.
Probably the team’s best lineup/keeps everyone happy: When all the chips are on the table, this is probably the best five-man unit Stevens has to work with. It’s important for this group to get some reps after Hayward missed all of last season, and starting off halves together is a good way to achieve that goal. Chemistry still needs to be built here, something which we saw starting to blossom in last year’s preseason. Given the fact that this group is going to get the call regularly during crunch time, the case can be made that building a strong cohesiveness as a starting unit will help them succeed in high leverage situations. Demoting someone within this group could also cause some tension since everyone within it has the potential to be an All-Star.
Potential Negatives
Rebounding: This was a lingering problem last year anytime Aron Baynes, Daniel Theis or Greg Monroe weren’t on the floor. Generally, the team’s defensive rebounding plummeted in those instances, and that’s likely to happen again with this group. Horford had a bounce-back year on the glass, but Tatum’s rebounding declined as the year continued. Hayward and Brown are both solid for their positions, but they won’t be able to make up for the fact that Tatum rebounds more like a guard than a forward. Stevens has shown a willingness to sacrifice rebounding for versatility in the past, and that will be the case again for stretches this year. Whether or not he wants to try to survive it from the opening tip is the question.
Wear and tear on Al Horford: The All-Star has never been a big fan of playing the 5 for the majority of games, and that’s a concern as heads into his age 32 season. The C’s obviously need him at his best for the postseason, and having him bang bodies against the likes of Dwight Howard, Jonas Valanuncias and Joel Embiid for 20-plus minutes per night does not seem like the best idea when it comes to preserving his health and stamina. Given the fact that the C’s have a pair of appealing alternatives (Aron Baynes, Daniel Theis) that deserve minutes off the bench, it makes sense to start one of them on a nightly basis, particularly whenever Boston is facing a traditional center. Stevens shouldn’t want to play Baynes and Theis together anyway off the bench, so starting one helps solve that problem, while keeping Horford fresher.
Scoring balance with bench unit: The second unit behind Boston’s small-ball starting five should be formidable most nights from a defensive standpoint. Marcus Smart, Terry Rozier and Marcus Morris are going to wreak havoc, while Theis and Baynes are terrific second unit rim protectors. However, that group has inefficient options from a scoring standpoint. Smart is a subpar shooter, Rozier and Morris are streaky and Baynes/Theis are secondary offensive pieces. While it’s likely Stevens would stagger his rotation to insert an All-Star into this group, it might make more sense to just include one of his best offensive pieces there from the start. Hayward or Tatum could then be the featured scoring option with the bench unit on a nightly basis and have more opportunities, while also balancing out the rotation.
Verdict: Will we see it opening night?
My gut says no, especially since the Sixers will be the opponent on opening night. Stevens will likely go with this starting group when head-to-head against small ball matchups during the regular season (Houston, Golden State, etc.), but I don’t think it’s likely to be the team’s default starting five outside of that instance. The need to protect Horford from dealing with bigger 5s should keep this grouping from getting too much run on a night-to-night basis, outside of crunch time. The C’s have terrific depth at all positions this year, so look for them to try to create better balance with that over the 82-game regular season grind.
Other NBA News and Notes
- The rookie curse in Philadelphia continued this week as first-round pick Zhaire Smith underwent surgery for a fracture in his foot suffered during an offseason workout. Nothing definitive on his timetable to return just yet but it would be a surprise to see him ready for the start of the season. Keep an eye on Philly for adding a name in free agency with their room-level exception to help boost the bench in his absence.
- The Knicks are reportedly ready to pull the plug on one of the worst deals in NBA history, as they prepare to stretch Joakim Noah later this summer. He's played just 53 games over the last two years after a signing a $72 million dollar deal. Not sure why the Knicks wouldn't wait to try to dump him with some picks rather than outright waiving him given their outlook this season, but that helps explain why that franchise is where it is. Only a matter of time now before Noah is back playing for Tom Thibodeau in Minnesota.
- With DeMarcus Cousins out of the picture in New Orleans, they'll take another gamble on a traditional center in Jahlil Okafor next season. He signed a partially guaranteed deal this week and should have a decent shot at bench minutes battling the likes of Emeka Okafor and Alexis Ajinca. That's not necessarily good news for the Pelicans though, particularly given the way Okafor looked in Brooklyn last year in an underwhelming couple of months.
- Nice of Kawhi Leonard to get a thank you note out to San Antonio fans three weeks late after tearing their hearts out all summer.
- Another swing and a miss by the NCAA in their announced rule changes this week. While some alterations are long overdue (letting a kid re-enroll if not drafted, allowing them to get a degree after their career if they were on scholarship) the lack of coordination with the NBA on all the eligibility changes makes the process a mess. Hopefully, some bigger and more meaningful reform is still coming.
